Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Very bearish chart. Finding good ‘quality labour’ is no longer a problem in the US. Sharp increase in labour supply is underway (as per today’s NFIB report). Not what a soft landing looks like pic.twitter.com/KyA51rL28w — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) March 12, 2024 US NFIB has declined 0.5 points to 89.4This is the sixth decline in …
by confoundedinterest17 Burn on, Bidenomics! The Biden administration is reportedly considering easing tailpipe emissions regulations, a move that was designed to force Americans from gas and diesel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles, according to The New York Times, citing three people familiar with the plan. This potential policy adjustment is in response to concerns from major automakers and …
Samsung Electronics is planning to fully automate its semiconductor factories by 2030, with “smart sensors” set to control the manufacturing process, according to South Korean media reports. The world’s largest maker of memory chips aims to create an “artificial intelligence fab” that operates without human labor, the reports said. The ground-breaking project is reportedly already …
via naturalnews: The Department of Labor‘s Bureau of Labor Statistics found that nearly 6,000 children, some of whom as young as 10, were being illegally employed in American workplaces in 2023, with fast food restaurants being among the worst offenders. According to the Labor Department’s data, child labor violations have more than tripled in the past 10 years, with …
The US high-yield bond market is currently facing its swiftest sell-off since March, triggering concerns reminiscent of worries about a banking-market collapse. Spreads in this market have widened by almost half a percentage point since December 28, marking the fastest pace of widening since March 16. This sudden development has raised eyebrows, signaling potential turbulence …
Most people like chocolate but most people probably didn’t know was chocolate is harvested by children they probably pay them next to nothing and they charge a fortune for those chocolate bars Most of the children laboring on cocoa farms are between the ages of 12 and 16, but reporters have found children as young …
🇺🇸 Cracks in the US labor market are beginning to appear as 6 of 7 employment-based #recession indicators have appeared. H/t: @hussmanjp pic.twitter.com/rgAgcMFI3G — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) November 23, 2023 https://twitter.com/joosteninvestor/status/1727721023150129258/history
Starbucks workers have filed more complaints with New York City, alleging that the coffee chain violated the Fair Workweek law. The allegations come as Starbucks baristas at more than 200 locations nationwide strike during the company’s busy Red Cup promotion. Last year, Chipotle paid $20 million to workers to settle Fair Workweek violations and $1 …
by Chris Black Peoples Republic of China along with North Korea are now the only East Asian countries that aren’t opening up their borders. via wionews: In a major move aimed at shoring up Taiwan’s $790 billion economy, India is planning to send as many as 100,000 workers to the island as early as next …
The dwindling demand for oil-based lubricants, reaching its lowest point in over four decades, is a stark indicator of the challenges facing the manufacturing sector in the United States. This decline in demand is far from indicative of a ‘soft landing,’ and while circumstances may differ this time, historical data presents a concerning pattern. Over …
The Federal Reserve’s efforts to weaken the labor market could have serious implications for the housing sector, as dwindling savings and potential job losses create a looming threat of rising foreclosures, amplifying the fragility of the housing market. If the Fed "succeeds" in weakening the labor market, it will impact housing. With excess savings depleted, …
The current economic landscape is giving rise to growing concerns, with labor market deterioration, tightened lending standards by banks, and persistent inflation creating a potential stagflationary environment that could impact consumers’ purchasing power and lead to an economic slowdown. This situation, where interest rates rise while prices surge, is beginning to resemble past scenarios that …
General Motors will be slowing its electric car (EV) production in North America due to lower-than-forecast demand, pushing its manufacturing targets well into 2025. The decision saves the company $1.5 billion next year, CFO Paul Jacobson said today on GM’s quarterly earnings call. The automaker had previously planned to sell 400,000 EVs in North America …
4/7 "The overall participation rate is expected to drop to 60.4% in 2032, according to the #Labor Department, mainly because of baby boomer retirements." pic.twitter.com/OBkde7cVKs — Kailash Concepts (@KailashConcepts) October 18, 2023
Yep this is one of the many metrics falling down in the labor market pic.twitter.com/fzMC6yWFGE — RecessionALERT (@RecessionAlert) October 12, 2023 Warning: The probability of a recession in 2024 is now over 60% This level has been seen only 2 times since 1960 Both times, it ended in severe economic downturns While the Fed still …
by Chris Black American business can’t or won’t pay what the price of labor is actually worth. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/01/magazine/economy-illegal-immigration.html
Threat of Expanded Strike: United Auto Workers (UAW) have issued a threat to expand their ongoing strike, which initially involved workers at Ford, Stellantis, and GM. Currently, around 13,000 out of 144,000 UAW workers are already on strike, but the situation is becoming increasingly volatile. Historic Strike: Notably, this marks the first time in history …
by bitkogan In a classic case of “bad news is good news” sentiment, the stock market seems to be embracing the notion that a cooling labor market could trigger interest rate cuts. However, the Federal Reserve has made it clear they’re data-dependent. As such, the Fed has not committed to implementing rate cuts that are …
‘Two weeks ahead of last year’s schedule based upon the oscillator and the 50 dma. At the lows, the oscillator was one year oversold, now it’s back to overbought. Worst case, global crash starts this week but gets totally out of control on Labor Day.’ Two weeks ahead of last year's schedule based upon the …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R#0 Zooming in: CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of your dollars, and thereby the purchasing power of your hard earned labor: July 2022 purchasing power of $100 in January 2000: 57.1 (down -3.33% in purchasing power in the last year!) July 2021 purchasing power of $100 in January 2000: …
US job openings fell in June to the lowest level since April 2021, suggesting some softening in demand for workers in an otherwise resilient labor market. pic.twitter.com/fXipTISecT — Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) August 1, 2023
NEW ORLEANS (AP) – A McDonald’s franchise that controls 12 restaurants in metro New Orleans violated child labor laws and has hired more than 80 minors in two states, the U.S. Department of Labor said Tuesday. CLB Investments LLC in Metairie employed 72 workers who are 14 and 15 years old — allowing them to …
by Chris Black Even as demand for labor continues to increase with economic growth, the supply of labor in the U.S. is stagnate absent ever larger wage increases. The working age population of the U.S. plateaued a few years ago (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTUSM647S), so increases in labor supply have largely come from attracting those outside the work …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R Let’s zoom in on this since 2020: CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of your dollars, and thereby the purchasing power of your hard earned labor: May 2022 purchasing power: 57.8 (down -3.80% in purchasing power in the last year!) May 2021 purchasing power: 62.7 (down -11.32%% in purchasing …
Popeyes, Chick-fil-A, and other fast food chains are facing financial challenges due to lower sales, higher costs, and supply chain disruptions. Popeyes is closing locations and Chick-fil-A is closing its first-ever restaurant. With Americans eating out increasingly less to save on costs, some of the biggest fast-food chains in the US are taking desperate measures …
Early signs of cooling labor market. Might take time, but its happening.$TLT and $GLD back in action. Also closely look at the steepening of curve, that is the most important thing to watch now. pic.twitter.com/P52O05Lisu — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) June 8, 2023 US jobless claims mysteriously surge upon "data" revision US jobs mysteriously revised …
A labor slowdown is plaguing critical West Coast ports as workers refuse to turn up amid labor negotiations – stoking fears of a looming supply chain crisis. Though no strike is currently underway, several major ports along the West Coast, including the Port of Oakland, the Los Angeles Port, and the Port of Long Beach …
Guest Post by Charles Hugh Smith at Oftwominds.com: This is how we’ll end up with severe shortages of truly skilled labor and high unemployment of those who lack the necessary skills. The labor force and the job market are referred to as if they were monolithic structures. But they’re not monolithic, they are complex aggregates of very different cohorts …
