Turns out cutting labor oversupply still works. Fewer undocumented workers means tighter job markets, which means pay goes up.

According to a new op-ed from the Center for Immigration Studies, nearly 1 million illegals have self-deported under Trump’s renewed enforcement push, aided by cash incentives and digital check-ins. The report ties this exodus to a measurable increase in average wages, particularly in lower-skilled sectors. via CIS: The Washington Post claims “a million foreign-born workers …

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S&P 500 market breadth near the worst level this century and Labor, inflation, and equity conditions nearly identical to June 1999 when Fed hiked rates to 5% to cool markets

Fed faced same risks in ‘99 as today… June 1999. The Fed is concerned about: -Rampant equity speculation and its impact on wealth (SPX PE 24x, today 23x)-Too tight labor markets (UR 4.3%, today 4.1%)-Too high wage growth (ECI 3.5%, today 3.6%)-Inflation (Core CPI 2.3%, today 2.8%). They hiked from 4.75% to 5%. pic.twitter.com/A4uqxyIYmH — …

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THE DEEPER DIVE: Labor Data is Actually a LOT Worse than it Looked, and it Already Looked Bad!

by David Haggith And, yet, the picture gets worse still looking further forward, based on the labor-market conditions that are building as major trends so far. Just as I expected, the government’s report on jobs Thursday totally contradicted ADP’s Wednesday payroll data report. The stock market ignored the abysmal ADP report but then soared with …

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Are we heading for a short dip or a real crash?

It looks like tough times could be on the horizon. ADP just posted its first negative print since March 2023: private payrolls dropped 33,000 in June. The labor market is contracting. pic.twitter.com/0YlIHDNwSz — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 6, 2025 Something is happening in the banking system. The Fed's Primary Credit Facility is about …

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June jobs report reveals weakening labor market with rising long-term unemployment and shrinking participation despite headline gains in government and low-wage sectors

6.5M sidelined want work participation rate keeps falling… 1. Sector BreakdownJune job gains were led by gov’t, healthcare, and hospitality—low-wage, service-heavy sectors. Meanwhile, business services, manufacturing, and tech were flat or shrinking. This isn’t strength—it’s a shift toward unproductive labor. pic.twitter.com/STzuNl5NM8 — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) July 3, 2025 3. People Not in Labor Force …

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Not only labor shortages and debt surge but also housing glut and record delinquencies prove today’s crisis beats 2008 severe standards

Picture 2008 again. The fear on screens. The system breaking. Now pause. The difference today is quieter and darker. The collapse arrives in data points, not alarms. Start with labor. The working‑age population between 25 and 54 is now shrinking in absolute terms. That means fewer workers, fewer new households, fewer buyers. Without a growing …

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US jobless claims rise for fourth week in a row, labor market shows signs of softening.

Caution sign: New jobless claims are ticking up. The numbers are still low, but there's an upward trend. This is key to watch. The main reason the US economy has been so resilient is 159.5 million people are still employed and getting paychecks. If that goes down, a downward… pic.twitter.com/X8gfQWudUw — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) June …

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Nvidia led the market rebound, but no new highs now signals a downturn. Labor market weakness hidden beneath surface optimism.

Nvidia did the heavy lifting during the market rebound since April. Failure to make new highs at this point means the market is heading down $NVDA pic.twitter.com/NzCOvtlWvo — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) June 1, 2025 The unemployment rate for adults aged 22-27 is 5.3% vs the national rate of 4.2%. Historically it’s always …

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Consumer fear of job losses hits highest since 2008, survey signals historic warning for labor market

JUST IN: 67% of US consumers now expect higher unemployment over the next 12 months, the highest since 2008. This percentage has more than doubled over the last 5 months. Currently, more Americans anticipate higher unemployment than during the 1981-82, 1990-1991, and 2001… pic.twitter.com/oAw2AOUJ6w — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 26, 2025 The best leading …

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The labor market is still holding up.

Breaking: April jobs number: 177k vs 133k expectations. Revisions mehUnemployment stays flat at 4.2%Average hourly earnings +.2% vs +.3% expectations lightYOY +3.8% vs +3.9% exp Bond yields up a bit. Stocks popped some — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 2, 2025 NONFARM PAYROLLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate …

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Tesla building ‘legion of robots’ to lead $5 trillion AI labor revolution. Morgan Stanley sees 1 billion humanoids by 2050 with Tesla poised to dominate

TESLA OPTIMUS EYED FOR $5 TRILLION ROBOT TAKEOVER Morgan Stanley sees a $5 trillion humanoid robot market by 2050—and Tesla’s Optimus is in prime position. With up to 1 billion robots projected by mid-century, analysts say companies controlling the brains and branding will win big. Elon expects to build 10,000 to 12,000 Optimus units this …

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U.S. judge declines to block Elon Musk’s DOGE from Labor Department systems

A federal judge on Friday declined to block Elon Musk’s government cost-cutting department from accessing the U.S. Department of Labor’s systems, an initial setback for the government employee unions resisting his efforts to shrink the federal bureaucracy. The temporary ruling by U.S. District Judge John Bates in Washington, D.C., is the first step in a …

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Labor data revisions show the real story behind the numbers. Food prices, especially eggs, keep soaring

We’re in a strange, contradictory market where some trends suggest stability, but the underlying reality remains volatile. Only a 22% chance of a recession occurring within the next year pic.twitter.com/nx26BqGko7 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) January 24, 2025 Your food prices are in a bull market: Egg prices are now up 101% since October 2023. …

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California’s job market weakens; Nevada faces early labor market recession signs.

California’s job market worsens: employment drops, unemployment rises, labor force shrinks. https://t.co/ANUo7WJBMK — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 20, 2024 Nevada’s labor market shows recession signs: employment declines monthly since June. It 100% is. The entire situation is just getting worse, and frankly, nothing is being done besides tax abatements that aren't doing much. They should …

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We are on the same rate-cut path as 2007. Remember what happened in 2008? Powell becoming extra-hawkish likely means the labor market is about to crack

We are on the same rate-cut path as 2007. Remember what happened in 2008? — Steven Van Metre – AI 👑 (@MetreSteven) December 18, 2024 https://twitter.com/Logisticsexpert/status/1869522799389454585 Maybe he is finally starting to see the stagflation? — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) December 18, 2024 Rates will rise until it collapses the stock market bubble Collapsing stock market …

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Germany’s labor market suffers, with unemployment hitting 2.9 million, highest since 2016.

⚠️VOLKSWAGEN PLANS TO CLOSE AT LEAST 3 GERMAN FACTORIES AND CUT THOUSANDS OF JOBS⚠️ The largest EU carmaker also plans to lay off TENS OF THOUSANDS of people out of its 300,000 workforce and slash pay by 10%. Brace for more rise in German unemployment👇https://t.co/6u5jTlo3xn — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 15, 2024 Unemployment Rate …

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Attitudes about the labor market are deteriorating. Fresh low in the Labor Differential. Not a welcome sign for unemployment

Attitudes about the labor market are deteriorating. Fresh low in the Labor Differential. Not a welcome sign for unemployment pic.twitter.com/kw8mIH0VYy — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 25, 2024 Some layoffs announced in August/September :Intel : 15,000 employeesDell : 12,500 employeesSAP : 10,000 employeesCisco : 5,600 employeesStellantis : 2,450 employees GM : 1,695 employeesAmazon : 15% …

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2007 similarities continue to pile on… This is now the weakest labor market conditions for job seekers since late 2007.

We’re really in a ‘holding pattern’ is it comes to the labor market – the data continues to worsen while the market has pulled down its pants and continues to moon the labor market. Unemployment will need to rise further for impacts to be realized in markets. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) September 24, 2024 07 …

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