Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Warning: The yield from cash now exceeds that of stocks Making the latter very unattractive at current levels In other words, investors are more incentivized to hold cash than take risk in equities The spread is back to levels seen in the 1980s and 2000 In the 1980s, equities… pic.twitter.com/3CwcTdHn2E — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October …
The IMF warned of bond market risks amid fears of a Silicon Valley Bank repeat. Stricter lender scrutiny is necessary, the IMF’s Tobias Adrian told the Financial Times. Sharp rises in bond yields could pose a risk to banking portfolios, as happened earlier this year. The sharp rise in Treasury bond yields provoked warnings from …
by TonyLiberty The housing market is in a difficult state, with low inventory, high mortgage rates, and high prices making it difficult for buyers to afford homes. Despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, home prices have remained high. First-time homebuyers are having difficulty competing with investors, who are able to make all-cash offers …
Target is one of the many retail names facing increasing theft. Walmart recently said they are considering raising prices and shutting stores due to theft. What's the solution to this quickly developing crisis? Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 4, 2023 Now supermarket slaps security …
by theSilverVigilante Rising #bond #yields is hurting #US #banks and it starts to show up in the #cds – see below. With US Treasuries at 5%, Bank of America is close to 45x levered, at 6-7% infinitely levered. Maybe the #Fed should have stress-tested the banks not only on credit quality but also duration… Source: …
via cnbc: JPMorgan on Wednesday lowered its rating on Dollar General to the equivalent of a sell, from hold, and cut its price target to $116 per share, from $132. The downgrade from veteran retail analyst Matthew Boss followed a meeting with Dollar General’s CFO that painted a challenging financial picture of the company’s core …
By Graham Summers, MBA Inflation is back. While mainstream economists prance around on television claiming that inflation has been defeated, the real data suggests otherwise. It’s a well known “secret” on Wall Street that the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is heavily massaged to UNDER-state inflation. However, even the CPI, with …
S&P Global Ratings revealed that corporate defaults reached a total of 16 in August. Read more: https://t.co/9aNUPiiD0A — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2023 Providing a visual pic.twitter.com/jTSPphi6pz — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 13, 2023 The sudden shifts in consumer behavior should not come as a surprise. We went from record levels of stimulus to the …
JPMORGAN: “.. there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months, the severity of which could be higher than [markets] anticipate. Risks of an interest rate shock .. are clear: consumer credit .. funding of startups .. impact on employment ..” [Kolanovic] pic.twitter.com/PvXkzsZA2Z — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September …
By Graham Summers, MBA Last week, I noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other government agencies have been engaging in a strange scheme. That scheme? Releasing economic data that initially suggests the economy is booming, only for that same data to be revised downward multiple times in subsequent months. Some people think …
At the same time, homebuyers are now putting FAR LESS down than the 2008 era. The average downpayment was 14% in 2020 and now 18%, well below the 22%+ seen in 2008. All while interest rates hit 30-year highs. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. pic.twitter.com/ApTjkIQuRp — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) …
A complete writeup of our vacancy index methodology can be found here: https://t.co/IRWYcXCdQn And the complete dataset, including local estimates for hundreds of locations across the U.S., is available here:https://t.co/NpXMOeVbSD 10/ — Igor Popov (@IAPopov) August 30, 2023 We’ve also filtered out smaller props (<10 units), which need to have high vacancy rates to appear …
Scary Halloween in markets? 🎃 👻 “Consumer confidence fell more than expected in August, while delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, according to data from the Apollo Group…Payments on approximately $1.1 trillion of federal student loans will resume in October, potentially setting consumers up for a “payment …
Embattled Chinese developer China Evergrande has warned investors to “exercise caution” as it revealed the true extent of the crisis facing one of its units. Hengda Real Estate, a principal subsidiary of Evergrande, says it had a total of 1,931 pending litigation cases as of the end of July 2023. Those cases each involve more …
By Graham Summers, MBA One of the hallmarks of the Biden Presidency is that economic data is released that looks fantastic at first glance… only to then be revised much lower in subsequent months. Conspiracy theorists believe this indicates that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other bean-counter agencies are massaging the data to …
Perfect video illustrating how Vivek Ramaswamy made his fortune on grifting investors. People are catching on that he's a smooth talking psychopathic snake oil salesmanpic.twitter.com/z1pHEQmwet https://t.co/bx9de7XCOd — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 30, 2023 He's "too busy" to testify in the lawsuit of the pension funds he destroyed 🤣https://t.co/plHxe9YmUI — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 30, 2023
WASHINGTON, D.C.— Stephen Hall, Legal Director and Securities Specialist, issued the following statement on today’s decision in Robinhood Financial LLC v. Galvin, from the Supreme Judicial Court for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, reversing a lower-court judge’s decision that struck down the state’s fiduciary duty rule. Better Markets filed an amicus curiae brief in the case …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Wut mean?: On the flipside, this means 66.1% of retail investors and 56.03% of institutional investors believe the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, 1987, in the next six months is above 10%.
Lord give me the confidence of an investor piling into NVDA at 226x trailing PE ahead of earnings being released. pic.twitter.com/kNSGxq1RLd — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 21, 2023 What was their total position size? — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 21, 2023 Material change ! — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 21, 2023 $NVDA …
Treasury Yields Reach Highest Since 2007 Amid Elevated Rate Fears: Rising Real Yields Reflect Firmer Economy and Higher Deficits; 10-Year Yield Surpasses 4.34%, Marking Highest Level Since Financial Crisis The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high, as the persistently resilient economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain …
There is a massive housing owner occupancy fraud scheme being unearthed and the more I review, the worst the news gets "They are 75% more likely to default on their mortgages than declared investors. And they are more likely to default than true owner-occupiers, too. This makes… pic.twitter.com/lpkup3F4ln — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 11, 2023 …
#Retail #investors are once again buying #market highs. @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/TzbkxDvoee — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 4, 2023 Bloomberg is aggressively pumping 2 narratives this morning: 1) We can have higher rates for longer & a soft landing2) We are coming out of the recession Both statements are complete B.S. They're inversely correlated. The faster & …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.evestment.com/news/hedge-fund-industry-asset-flow-report-june-2023/ Highlights: June 2023 witnessed the 13th straight month of net outflows in the hedge fund industry. June’s redemptions were lighter compared to previous years, with an estimated net $13.12 billion taken out, though it still resulted in the industry’s assets growing by $39.5 billion to approximately $3.439 trillion. Historically, June is …
by Chris Black Japanese investors have already begun adjusting investment portfolios away from U.S. bonds in light of rising FX hedging costs (https://archive.is/BGtTQ) and in anticipation of higher JGB yields (https://archive.is/8MWKR). Official sector data (https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html) show a notable decline in Japanese holdings of Treasuries, a slight decline in Agency MBS, and a modest increase in …
UK money supply is now falling. pic.twitter.com/2bzfTGGXBi — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) July 31, 2023 The Chinese service sector not exactly firing on all cylinders. pic.twitter.com/zIYDn3C6XK — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) July 31, 2023 Australian Business Credit y/y growth posted its slowest print of this cycle as RBA hikes begin to hit the Ozzieland… Housing sector health …
Next week will be interesting because many charts are indicating market weakness which lines up with week 21. https://t.co/ggQXxGybX0 pic.twitter.com/U2aMp07RLv — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 29, 2023 Here's an interesting chart. Volatility spikes have been occurring on the same weekly intervals the last two cycles. Weeks 8 & 17 are common across both, implying a large …
Sometimes silence is key. h/t NEWSONVSU
by Hephaestus4 David Hunter (a contrarian investor) said market can correct 10% then melt up about 38%, in which S&P 509 will reach 6,000 to 7,000. After Melt-up there will be 80% drop. Another possibility market just drop 50% to 80%. Either way the trend is down eventually. The Fed going to raise interest again …
Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund has rallied more than 50% this year. Investors are using that as an opportunity to get out. They have pulled a net $717 million from the ARK Innovation ETF over the past 12 months, according to FactSet. That exodus marks a notable shift for a fund that had consistently drawn …
