Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
THE IMPOSSIBLE JUST HAPPENED The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder is now worth less than its Bitcoin. Stop and read that again. Strategy holds 650,000 Bitcoin. Worth $55.9 billion today. Its market cap: $45.7 billion. Wall Street is valuing the company at negative $10.2 billion. This is not a drill. This is the first sustained …
I must admit the situation is getting funny. First of all I’m not a big fan of Powell, because I think this guy has already lost a powerful game hitting 10Y/3M 1000 days in inversion beating previous 1929 record 700 days. Reality is : if even that’s his achievement – he’s just buying time at …
by confoundedinterest17 Was Freddie King correct? Is the US economy going down?? The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) has inverted to the positive side after a prolonged NEGATIVE inversion (from July 6, 2022 to Sept 5, 2024) marking the longest period of negative inversion since August 18, 1978 – May 1, 1980. Each negative inversion was …
This yield curve inversion is WORSE than 1929 and 2008 Buckle up pic.twitter.com/u3GEu1woDQ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 5, 2024 🚨CRASH ALERT🚨 1929 VS 2024 Scary ? Don't be alarmed, it gets much worse. A complete financial cleansing is overdue. pic.twitter.com/Ml8ib4E891 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 4, 2024 The difference between Real GDP and …
Blue line marks 2Y10Y yield curve inversion bottom. Red line marks SPY correction bottom. White bar is constant period in between. The Labor market is telling us something. 👇🏼 Who’s listening? pic.twitter.com/oM1Gt8KUjL — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 14, 2024 h/t mrmrmrj
2/ The yield curve has now been inverted for the longest period since 1929 This signal has accurately predicted every economic downturn And also reflects the condition of the labor market pic.twitter.com/TBSFZxciOG — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 24, 2024 4/ Conversely, after yield curve inversions the curve steepens This usually suggests a weakening labor market …
We are now in the longest yield curve inversion on record without a recession. byu/nobjos inwallstreetbets
The USA is currently experiencing the longest and steepest yield curve inversion in recorded history between the 10-year Treasury Note and 3-month Treasury Bill. Historical data shows that such inversions have preceded economic recessions. The prolonged inversion is seen as “smart money” signaling skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s narrative on inflation. This skepticism raises questions …
In a significant market development, the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Curve has remained inverted for a historic 278 consecutive trading days, marking the longest inversion in financial history. The inversion has deepened recently, reaching its lowest point since August, adding to economic uncertainty. Notably, Broadcom has emerged as a front-runner in the semiconductor industry, …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve reminds me of The Stones’ song “Tumbling Dice.” Why? The Fed can’t tell if inflation is cooling or re-accelerating. Hence, they are just rolling dice. Let’s start with mortgage rates, a critical component of the housing and CRE markets. Mortgage rates remain up 163% since 2021, not great for housing affordability. Despite …
by demonbeanie The banking system is facilitated by uncollateralized debt; fractional reserve banking, which had seen the reduction of the reserve requirements to 0% in 2020. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm On your bank’s balance sheet, there are assets labeled “cash on hand,” which includes cash and cash equivalents which is physical dollars, MM accounts, CDs, Short-term gov bonds, and …
by InternationalTop2405 The 10Y treasury was introduced in 1968
by confoundedinterest17 Will this be the last time for a Fed rate hike? Today, The Fed raised their target rate to 5.50%, up 525 basis points from 0.25% on 3/15/2022. That is one big rise in rates over a short period of time. Will they stop with one rate hike? If The Fed Funds Futures …
by Chris Black CBS claims black men are superior fathers compared to white men: 70% of Black fathers who live with their children were most likely to have bathed, dressed, changed or helped their child with the toilet every day, compared with their White or Hispanic counterparts, according to a CDC report. https://t.co/EHnzUwZteh — CBS …
by confoundedinterest17 61% of Bloomberg terminal respondents (including me, by the way) see Fed hikes leading to recession. Bond traders are stepping up wagers that the Federal Reserve will steer the US economy into a recession. Policy-sensitive front-end Treasuries led a selloff Thursday, while longer-date bonds lagged, a day after Fed officials indicated that they’re prepared to …
by FATPEPPAPIGGAMER420 It looks like the 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity is inching closer to an inverted yield curve. This typically happens before a recession, so the Fed may start cutting rates soon.