Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
🔴 FED'S BOWMAN: INFLATION ELEVATED, AND I SEE UPSIDE RISKS, PROGRESS HAS STALLED. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) January 9, 2025 30-yr is 5% pic.twitter.com/wzz39uRgFR — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 10, 2025 Equities are going to need to learn to live with higher rates. They are here to stay. I really did enjoy all the posts …
Its never been more obvious the markets are setting up for an epic downside crash. I know you have been spoiled on the “up-only” markets, but the FED cannot save you without causing massive inflation. They have to let equity markets fall. Its coming, its obvious. Its never been more obvious the markets are setting …
Meanwhile:⁰⁰Gold keeps rising, even with the collapse in the Treasury market.⁰⁰We’ve entered a new era where gold stands out as the ultimate defensive asset and inflation hedge, in my view. Central banks are leading this transition, but I believe other institutions have yet… pic.twitter.com/pwi5TwGYaI — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 8, 2025 An entire generation is …
I can do this ALL DAY in CPG. The consumer is dead pic.twitter.com/5vRBTU6sKF — USA Divides by 32 (@sabregold19991) January 8, 2025 Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff. The last 6-month drop is even larger than the drop seen in 2008, 2nd largest behind 2020. What is happening here? …
These are the highest I’ve EVER seen them in years… The MMRI is currently at 318.5: https://traderschoice.net/about-traders-choice/ The Modified MMRI is now at 411: https://www.mannarino-market-risk-indicator.com/MMMRI/ These indicators have reliably predicted bank failures over the past few years, so expect more shit to break economically soon followed by another huge inflation increase after the US government …
Inflation 2.0 reignited. Breaks 77 and holds yields explode. pic.twitter.com/M5wyYmdqP0 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 5, 2025 The US 30Yr minus the 3-month Spread is on the verge of a big move higher if it can clear 55 bps. pic.twitter.com/6jFk08m6yi — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 6, 2025 Strong U.S. Data Could Propel 10- …
Cutting rates was a colossal mistake. pic.twitter.com/Wd41S5B8Cp — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 3, 2025 $TLT is not the same as $ZB_F fwiw. 30-year bond futures are quite a ways away from all-time lows. The long-end is on the rise for reasons that include: – Upside economic surprises – Risks of inflation resuming – The …
It is the more accurate measure of real inflation Not CPI — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 31, 2024 📌 Performance Investors regard gold as both a hedge against inflation and a strategic asset during geopolitical uncertainty, having proven to be the most effective safeguard against major geopolitical events since 1973👉 https://t.co/Lu9xTiGXkK h/t @SoberLook #gold #spx …
Eggs: H5N1. massive cullings, all year long. https://t.co/1gDeCfM0Jo — Carnival Hotdog (@CarnivalHotdog) December 30, 2024
Because while the economy looks solid, it's built on debt, inflation, and overvalued assets. Add in rising interest rates and global instability, and the conditions are ripe for a sharp correction, even in a seemingly strong market. — Rooted_In_Reality (@realonesknow87) December 30, 2024 Trump Just said we are heading to a 1929 scenario in the …
FED reassures the market that inflation is over by cutting rates.Bond market reassures FED that inflation ain't over. Shaping up to rival 73' -75' repeat. God help us all. pic.twitter.com/ZiKJ4qazxB — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 27, 2024 Yields will now keep rising until the equity market collapses. The die is set. — Uncle Milty’s …
INFLATION FREAKOUT COMING The Fed, the Bond Market & the Herd are About to Have an Inflation Freakout. This Will Likely Be the Catalyst for the stock market top & start the a crash in January – Fed Inflation Freakout Video Herehttps://t.co/42KpiKFoQO$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ… pic.twitter.com/fndl6p1wVM — King of the Charts – The Michael Burry …
US Debt Growing by $1000 billion every 100 days pic.twitter.com/O1UwAch94y — Willem Middelkoop (@wmiddelkoop) December 26, 2024 On the next advancing cycle in gold towards $2,900, I expect senior gold miners GDX test $48 mark. Gold $3,400, GDX to $65. This is my personal view… pic.twitter.com/kr0MTHUkGo — Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) December 26, 2024 Behold the …
Turkey has severe inflation problems and a plummeting currency. 22% of their children live in poverty. This is what governments will do to Bitcoin if it becomes a threat to its currency. This is why you shouldn’t be 💯 in Bitcoin. https://t.co/XOsWfqKbn6 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 26, 2024 If the U.S. government is willing …
The Swiss have printed about 3x less money than Canada has between 1980 and 2024 And in 1985, 1 Canadian dollar could buy 2 swiss francs. Today? It buys 0.65. This isnt magic, guys. pic.twitter.com/KPOn7lqfb5 — Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) December 24, 2024 The original Big Mac Index: Campbell's Tomato Soup. In short, Nixon broke the …
It cannot also just be weird flows in thin markets currently. But I dislike when bond yields trade UP, when macro surprises are clearly SOFT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 23, 2024 Excellent read. Too many investors today have never lived through hard times or a recession thus their understanding of “risk” is completely …
by confoundedinterest17 Inflation soared under Biden/Harris, primarily due to their outrageous wasteful government spending. US government spening soared with Covid and politicians enjoyed the unbridled spending. Let’s see if Trump and Republicans can do any better.
The Fed’s favorite (until it starts rising) inflation indicator – Core PCE – printed cooler than expected for November (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) which held it steady at +2.8% YoY (below the expected 2.9%) – tied for the highest since April… Source: Bloomberg However, Headline PCE rose to +2.4% from +2.3% – its …
Happy holidays! Not everyone’s got the Christmas spirit, though… In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just handed out lumps of coal to everyone this year, and savers and investors alike are reeling. Here’s what happened… By Peter Reagan Key takeaways The Fed recently cut interest rates despite high inflation, low unemployment and positive GDP numbers Fed Chair …
Recent forecasts predict a resurgence in inflation – and many believe the Fed is considering a higher-for-longer rate of inflation as the “new normal.” That’s just one reason analysts are anticipating gold will hit $3,000 in the months ahead… By Peter Reagan This week, Your News to Know covers: UBS gold will hit $3,000 next year …
The December Philly Fed Manufacturing survey was another disaster, collapsing from -5.5 to -16.4, versus an expected rise to +2.8. This is the weakest level of the year. More problematic, prices paid jumped while prices received fell. All signs point to #stagflation. Sorry, Fed. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 19, 2024 The markets still don't …
by Mike Shedlock Based on Fed economic projections, it should not have cut interest rates today. Lead image is from today’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from today’s FOMC meeting. Key SEP Projections PCE inflation for 2024: 2.4 percent up from 2.3 percent. PCE inflation for 2025: 2.5 percent up from 2.1 percent. Core PCE inflation for …
Enjoy your rate cut this week. There might not be another one for a long time. pic.twitter.com/Z04lWsu2Tn — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 16, 2024 This is what “sticky” inflation looks like. pic.twitter.com/zcKIeq34a2 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 16, 2024 Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose about a quarter of a percentage point last week, the biggest …
TLDR: IRS recouped $4.7B from unpaid taxes and criminal proceeds after Inflation Reduction Act boost. $1.3B from overdue taxes by wealthy individuals. $2.9B from criminal cases targeting drug traffickers, cybercriminals, and terrorist financiers. $475M from whistleblower tips on hidden income and tax fraud. $292M from 28,000 high earners who hadn’t filed since 2017. IRS-Criminal Investigation …
Today's hotter-than-expected #inflation data, following similar news yesterday, is putting more downward pressure on #gold. But gold will soar when investors realize the Fed will keep cutting rates despite inflation, and return to QE, sending both inflation and gold much higher. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 13, 2024 Agricultural commodities have surged nearly 30% year-over-year, …
In 2021 there were three spikes in Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens. The first two were followed by corrections -10%. The third one in November 2021 was followed by bear market. We see the same pattern in 2024. Two corrections (April, July) and a third spike in November: A Hindenburg… pic.twitter.com/VSngerA3Hl — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 13, 2024 …
🚨IMPORTANT: Is the US economy awaiting a second wave of inflation as in the 1970-1980s? Is this a completely false and misleading narrative and the economy is heading for deflation? Or maybe we will see a few years of an elevated 3-4% inflation? What do you think and why? pic.twitter.com/hh6yWMSyOu — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) …
#recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition https://t.co/p7cgcLzyrT pic.twitter.com/So5TXB58ic — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) December 11, 2024 Big cap Tech performance last 8 trading days $GOOGL 14%$AAPL 5.5% $MSFT 6% $META 10% $TSLA 18% $NFLX 6% — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 11, 2024 Bitcoin rippingGold rippingMost stocks ripping. Why? Because the Fed is a farce and not restrictive and …
by confoundedinterest17 We didn’t start the fire … The Fed and Biden/Harris did. And it is still burning. October STICKY core inflation is still up 4% YoY (year-over-year) Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pushed it up 3.3% YoY (not even close to the 2% mandate)… Source: Bloomberg There has not been a single …
Just shows what you can do if you get rid of all the left-wing money-wasting, cut civil servants etc. Trump will do the same in the US. Let's hope western Europe follows before it's too late. — Tess Summers 🏴🇮🇪 (@tesssummers98) December 11, 2024