Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist The Fed SHOULD have cut rates last week. That is a fact. Instead, the Fed stated it is on “hold” for rate cuts because the potential tariffs the Trump administration introduces might trigger inflation. This is 100% nonsense. Europe, Japan, China, and countless other nations have introduced tariffs, duties and other …
BOSTIC: FAMILIES AND FIRMS ARE TELLING THE FED THEY DON'T REALLY KNOW WHERE THE ECONOMY IS HEADING PROJECTION OF INFLATION FOR THIS YEAR IS NOW PRETTY MUCH SIDEWAYS; NO RETURN TO TARGET UNTIL 2027 NO JUST SEE ONE CUT THIS YEAR, EXPECTING INFLATION TO BE VERY BUMPY — PiQ (@PiQSuite) March 24, 2025 BOSTIC: BUSINESSES …
Is it really any wonder why no one is having kids? pic.twitter.com/NBgLEeM98x — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) March 20, 2025 https://twitter.com/LibertyCappy/status/1902434312265298108 I just reintroduced “End the Fed." Title: Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act, HR 1846. Americans would be better off if the Federal Reserve did not exist. The Fed devalues our currency by monetizing the …
Inflation is now just 1.35% according to real-time index Truflation. Eggs are down 30%. Oil is down 14%. Commodities are falling a percent per week. Expected housing inflation went from 12% to just 1.1%. The left is scrambling for new talking points. https://t.co/FGAZ7vfh0G — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) March 20, 2025 Inflation in the United …
by David Haggith The Fed goosed the stock market today with another Powell put, but in a slightly slier manner. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, offered some pretty peculiar surprises at the Fed’s FOMC meeting today, but not in interest policy. While the Fed held steady on actual interest rate policy as everyone was certain it …
Model me this: Dario expects full reciprocal tariffs to bump CPI to estimated +1.3% pts – about the same negative hit to GDP. Stagflation on top of bear market. So now tell me: Why are markets a buy here? https://t.co/2pRSGdxYRH — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) March 19, 2025 Breaking CNBC: Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan …
The market feels like a house of cards in a windstorm—teetering, trying to convince itself it’s stable, but deep down, everyone knows the truth. Sure, the S&P 500 has posted two straight days of 90% advancing stocks, but on what? Ghost-town volume. This isn’t conviction. This is a market that’s climbing because it doesn’t know …
Truflation’s real-time US inflation gauge has moved down to 1.3% – the lowest level since December 2020 byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
He’s playing a dangerous game, using Europe as a pawn. Is Trump's tariff war a deliberate strategy to tank European bonds for U.S. inflation control? He mentioned rates falling significantly during the State of the Union speech. Either way, orchestrating a local market collapse (US) to implode Europe will have significant global… pic.twitter.com/m3gS4T4wrp — The …
Credit cards hitting new highs = Americans having to use debt to buy basic necessities BREAKING: Credit card balances have hit a record of $1.21 trillion, per NY Fed. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 6, 2025 People think inflation is over blah blah blah. The truth is when prices go up they stay up! How many …
by David Haggith No small changes in the news today, but deep troubles rumbling up toward the surface from times past that will easily be made worse by times coming. Deep fear hovers over the stock market. The Dow tumbled, Warren Buffet fled the S&P500 stocks he had been advocating, and the Nasdaq fell off …
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that while monetary policy “is now in a good place,” she wants to see data reflect more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further. “I would like to gain greater confidence that progress in lowering inflation will continue as we consider making further adjustments to the …
by Mike Shedlock This post was inspired by CCN and MSNBC rants over the price of eggs. CPI food price data from the BLS, chart by Mish I started a presidential year in February ending in January, but it makes little difference to these calculations. Food Price Change Under Trump, Total 4 Years Food at …
Recent official inflation reports are disheartening. What’s worse, they simply don’t reflect the reality faced by everyday American families. Today we take a deep dive into how inflation itself, the official headline CPI, is measured. What if we’ve been measuring the wrong things? By Peter Reagan I hate to be the bearer of bad news, …
Voters weren’t crazy. The economy felt worse because it was worse. The government cooked the books, pretending unemployment was low, wages were up, and growth was strong—meanwhile, people were struggling to pay rent and keep food on the table. Washington elites dismissed their concerns as ignorance, blaming “right-wing media” instead of asking the real question: …
Wow. Notable drop in consumer sentiment in February. American consumers do not like tariffs. "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 27% last month and less than 2% prior to the election." "This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such… pic.twitter.com/SpjN6uanoX — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) February 7, 2025 …
The UK’s finances are beyond broken, and yet, the stock market cheers. The illusion continues—for now. The Bank Of England cut rates while increasing their inflation expectations If you think they did this to support UK economic growth then remove your beer goggles: – BOE run out of gold leading in the market inventory it …
In the past decade, auto insurance rates in the United States have skyrocketed by 93%, significantly outpacing the 34% increase in overall consumer prices. This sharp rise in premiums has affected drivers across the country, leaving many struggling to afford adequate coverage despite maintaining clean driving records and reducing their mileage. Several factors have contributed …
Interest rate futures now show a base case of Fed rate cuts being paused until June 2025. The decision to pause cuts appears to be largely uncontested by Fed officials. PCE inflation data Friday is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 29, 2025
JD Vance is asked about lowering the prices of groceries and babbles about jobs. If you recall, Donald Trump said this about voters' priorities: “They all said inflation was the No. 1 issue. I said, ‘I disagree." MAGA got conned. pic.twitter.com/fXpjCjEOEe — Art Candee 🍿🥤 (@ArtCandee) January 26, 2025
Stock futures were down sharply on Monday on concern about an artificial intelligence stock bubble popping because of the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek that possibly made a competitive AI model for a fraction of the cost. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 430 points, or 1%, while S&P futures shed 2.3%. …
The downside of Trump backing away from tariffs is that there will not be an offset to the income tax cuts or net spending increases that are coming soon. That means larger budget deficits and higher inflation to finance the debt. One way or another, American consumers will pay. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 21, …
by Mike Shedlock A group of 76 economists upped their inflation forecasts through 2027. Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher Economists are starting to model the effects of President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes and restrict immigration. The upshot: Inflation …
The Inflation Reduction Act became the Inflation Perpetuation Act. The cumulative inflation (CPI) from Jan 2021 to December 2024 is 21.8%. The cumulative core inflation (excluding food and energy) is even higher, at 23.5%.Prices did not fall in December; CPI rose 0.4% and… — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 18, 2025
Price Increases over last 4 years…CPI Medical Care: +9.5%CPI Apparel: +12.0%CPI New Cars: +19.0%CPI Used Cars: +19.6%CPI Food at home: +22.7%CPI Shelter: +24.4%CPI Food away from home: +25.1%CPI Electricity: +28.2%CPI Gas Utilities: +31.6%US Home Prices: +38.3%CPI… — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 15, 2025 BLS reports inflation accelerated to 4.8% annualized. They're handing Trump a lit …
🇺🇸 CPI FORECAST: Zero firms on Wall Street are expecting a cooler inflation print tomorrow. 📈 $SPY pic.twitter.com/O8Y7LJru2U — LuxAlgo (@LuxAlgo) January 14, 2025
This week (Wednesday morning) is CPI. Commodity prices back to 20 year highs. This is what I call Ponzi inflation. Bid up asset markets until they explode due to feedback through the economy. pic.twitter.com/VyscoXucnF — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 14, 2025 M2 money supply is a key indicator of liquidity It represents the total amount of …
Supply chain stress is higher right now than it was in the peak in the 2021-2022 reopening bottlenecks. Inflation is not contained. pic.twitter.com/QPFdLwlCMP — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) January 11, 2025 ShadowStats says real inflation is over 10%. Official CPI? Just 2.7%. The truth is in your grocery bill, not the government report. — GoldSilver HQ …
