A hub for independent voices and hard truths
Credit cards hitting new highs = Americans having to use debt to buy basic necessities BREAKING: Credit card balances have hit a record of $1.21 trillion, per NY Fed. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 6, 2025 People think inflation is over …
by David Haggith No small changes in the news today, but deep troubles rumbling up toward the surface from times past that will easily be made worse by times coming. Deep fear hovers over the stock market. The Dow tumbled, …
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that while monetary policy “is now in a good place,” she wants to see data reflect more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further. “I would like to gain greater confidence …
by Mike Shedlock This post was inspired by CCN and MSNBC rants over the price of eggs. CPI food price data from the BLS, chart by Mish I started a presidential year in February ending in January, but it makes …
Recent official inflation reports are disheartening. What’s worse, they simply don’t reflect the reality faced by everyday American families. Today we take a deep dive into how inflation itself, the official headline CPI, is measured. What if we’ve been measuring …
Voters weren’t crazy. The economy felt worse because it was worse. The government cooked the books, pretending unemployment was low, wages were up, and growth was strong—meanwhile, people were struggling to pay rent and keep food on the table. Washington …
Wow. Notable drop in consumer sentiment in February. American consumers do not like tariffs. "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 27% last month and less than 2% prior to the election." "This is only the fifth time …
The UK’s finances are beyond broken, and yet, the stock market cheers. The illusion continues—for now. The Bank Of England cut rates while increasing their inflation expectations If you think they did this to support UK economic growth then remove …
In the past decade, auto insurance rates in the United States have skyrocketed by 93%, significantly outpacing the 34% increase in overall consumer prices. This sharp rise in premiums has affected drivers across the country, leaving many struggling to afford …
Interest rate futures now show a base case of Fed rate cuts being paused until June 2025. The decision to pause cuts appears to be largely uncontested by Fed officials. PCE inflation data Friday is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for …
JD Vance is asked about lowering the prices of groceries and babbles about jobs. If you recall, Donald Trump said this about voters' priorities: “They all said inflation was the No. 1 issue. I said, ‘I disagree." MAGA got conned. …
Stock futures were down sharply on Monday on concern about an artificial intelligence stock bubble popping because of the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek that possibly made a competitive AI model for a fraction of the cost. Futures tied to …
The downside of Trump backing away from tariffs is that there will not be an offset to the income tax cuts or net spending increases that are coming soon. That means larger budget deficits and higher inflation to finance the …
by Mike Shedlock A group of 76 economists upped their inflation forecasts through 2027. Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher Economists are starting to model the effects of …
The Inflation Reduction Act became the Inflation Perpetuation Act. The cumulative inflation (CPI) from Jan 2021 to December 2024 is 21.8%. The cumulative core inflation (excluding food and energy) is even higher, at 23.5%.Prices did not fall in December; CPI …
Price Increases over last 4 years…CPI Medical Care: +9.5%CPI Apparel: +12.0%CPI New Cars: +19.0%CPI Used Cars: +19.6%CPI Food at home: +22.7%CPI Shelter: +24.4%CPI Food away from home: +25.1%CPI Electricity: +28.2%CPI Gas Utilities: +31.6%US Home Prices: +38.3%CPI… — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) …
🇺🇸 CPI FORECAST: Zero firms on Wall Street are expecting a cooler inflation print tomorrow. 📈 $SPY pic.twitter.com/O8Y7LJru2U — LuxAlgo (@LuxAlgo) January 14, 2025
This week (Wednesday morning) is CPI. Commodity prices back to 20 year highs. This is what I call Ponzi inflation. Bid up asset markets until they explode due to feedback through the economy. pic.twitter.com/VyscoXucnF — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 14, 2025 …
Supply chain stress is higher right now than it was in the peak in the 2021-2022 reopening bottlenecks. Inflation is not contained. pic.twitter.com/QPFdLwlCMP — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) January 11, 2025 ShadowStats says real inflation is over 10%. Official CPI? Just …
🔴 FED'S BOWMAN: INFLATION ELEVATED, AND I SEE UPSIDE RISKS, PROGRESS HAS STALLED. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) January 9, 2025 30-yr is 5% pic.twitter.com/wzz39uRgFR — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 10, 2025 Equities are going to need to learn to live …
Its never been more obvious the markets are setting up for an epic downside crash. I know you have been spoiled on the “up-only” markets, but the FED cannot save you without causing massive inflation. They have to let equity …
Meanwhile:⁰⁰Gold keeps rising, even with the collapse in the Treasury market.⁰⁰We’ve entered a new era where gold stands out as the ultimate defensive asset and inflation hedge, in my view. Central banks are leading this transition, but I believe other institutions …
I can do this ALL DAY in CPG. The consumer is dead pic.twitter.com/5vRBTU6sKF — USA Divides by 32 (@sabregold19991) January 8, 2025 Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff. The last 6-month drop is even …
These are the highest I’ve EVER seen them in years… The MMRI is currently at 318.5: https://traderschoice.net/about-traders-choice/ The Modified MMRI is now at 411: https://www.mannarino-market-risk-indicator.com/MMMRI/ These indicators have reliably predicted bank failures over the past few years, so expect more …
Inflation 2.0 reignited. Breaks 77 and holds yields explode. pic.twitter.com/M5wyYmdqP0 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 5, 2025 The US 30Yr minus the 3-month Spread is on the verge of a big move higher if it can clear 55 bps. …
Cutting rates was a colossal mistake. pic.twitter.com/Wd41S5B8Cp — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 3, 2025 $TLT is not the same as $ZB_F fwiw. 30-year bond futures are quite a ways away from all-time lows. The long-end is on the rise …
It is the more accurate measure of real inflation Not CPI — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 31, 2024 📌 Performance Investors regard gold as both a hedge against inflation and a strategic asset during geopolitical uncertainty, having proven to be …
Eggs: H5N1. massive cullings, all year long. https://t.co/1gDeCfM0Jo — Carnival Hotdog (@CarnivalHotdog) December 30, 2024
Because while the economy looks solid, it's built on debt, inflation, and overvalued assets. Add in rising interest rates and global instability, and the conditions are ripe for a sharp correction, even in a seemingly strong market. — Rooted_In_Reality (@realonesknow87) …
