Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The real story here is not “recession fears.” The real story is that institutions, markets, and even consumers are starting to quietly admit something much darker: The modern economy increasingly survives through financial insulation, debt tolerance, asset inflation, and delayed recognition of losses rather than broad based prosperity. That is the connective tissue running through …
by juvan If there are some world events where you really want to have a better guarantee of knowing where things are at you may consider looking at the various pay per collect services where regular people sign up and get paid $3-100 for each task which even operate in unstable regions of the world, …
via notayesmanseconomics At the moment there is rather a public spat between China and Japan. In one sense this is sabre rattling by the new Sanae Takaichi administration which knows it will be popular with its core vote. But it brings to mind a different challenge between these two countries and let me illustrate by …
Good Morning from Germany, which is increasingly losing out in trade w/China. Over the past 12mths, exports have dropped to €82bn, while imports have climbed to €165bn. The resulting trade deficit of €83bn is the largest since March 2023 and close to the record of €87bn. This… pic.twitter.com/auSjmfoDC7 — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 20, 2025 …
A lot of Artificial Intelligence deals increasingly sound like Artificial attempts to blow up stock prices, I mean just look at this one: https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/07/wall-street-analysts-explain-how-amds-own-stock-will-pay-for-openais-billions-in-chip-purchases/ Anybody wanna make a “deal” of 100 Billion $ with me, I make one with your friend and that friend makes one with you? https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/openai-nvidia-amd-deals-risks-rcna234806 Nvidia doesn’t manufacture the chips. They …
View post on imgur.com https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/tyler-robinson-hearing-charlie-kirk-suspect-shooter-live-updates-rcna231440 The shooting suspect’s mother recognized Tyler Robinson from a surveillance picture released by law enforcement, the Utah County attorney said. When questioned by his mother, Robinson allegedly told her that he had been at home sick, Jeff Gray said at a news conference. “Robinson’s mother expressed concern to her husband …
Truflation has been arguing that inflation is a non-problem and calling for the Fed to cut rates (below). But their latest readings are flashing a yellow to red flag on inflation. August 4th is labeled. It was 1.65%. Today it is 2.31%, a considerable increase of 0.66% in less than a month. And, as the …
“.. The findings highlight that many workers don’t have a rainy-day fund.” Link to article:https://t.co/w6wkWBVBqv — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 24, 2025 More Americans are tapping their 401(k)s just to get by. Hardship withdrawals from retirement plans have quadrupled since 2019. This is the downstream effect of money printing, inflation, and a decade of …
The global easing cycle continues pic.twitter.com/2umptKG11j — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) June 18, 2025 Gold is increasingly on the radar of Wall Street heavyweights and influential economists. Just in the last 2 months: Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine) calls gold a "Flight-to-quality asset". Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard) says "Gold is the new gold". David Einhorn (Greenlight) notes that… …
Should be an interesting opening in the morning. Futures deteriorating all night 💀 pic.twitter.com/lL2jkbz91G — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 6, 2025 $SPY This is going to be interesting, they're running it right up to the 200d likely ahead of Powell and that's exactly what happened in 2022 when prices hit the 200d and Powell did …
It's a bear market, ya know. $SPY pic.twitter.com/Pl6avZCdza — Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) March 28, 2025 BofA Fund Manager Survey reports largest drop in US equity allocation on record Time for a sentiment check… 1) Back in early March, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey showed over 60% of investors were bearish. That’s only …
The damage to the economy is becoming undeniable as we face government layoffs, spending cuts, tariffs, and increasingly strained international relations. The Trump administration’s policies have angered some of our closest allies, deported countless individuals, and led to the harassment of international travelers—some even facing imprisonment at the border. The economic fallout is beginning to …
Despite war in Europe, renewed instability in the Middle East, worsening trade relations and growing fiscal demands on governments (for defense, the energy transition and aging populations), investors are pricing in further interest-rate cuts and ambitious asset valuations. In fact, they seem decidedly optimistic — often a precursor of surging financial stress. https://archive.is/mCkZu h/t mark000
McDonald's is becoming a luxury: Same-store sales at McDonald's, $MCD, dropped by -1.5% in Q3 2024, more than expectations of a -0.7% decline. Same-store sales growth is a metric comparing revenue for restaurants open for at least 13 months. Sales decreased for the 2nd… pic.twitter.com/qXJnt6scfo — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 30, 2024 Unemployment payments …
A leading climate expert called for up to 38 tropical storms due to supercharged "climate fueled" oceans, but so far we have only seen 5. Experts have now concluded that the oceans and atmosphere are actually "overheating" due to global warming and a "new normal" is emerging. — Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 8, 2024 Another …
#Stocks are increasingly sure that the #economy will avoid a #recession.#Bonds…..not so much.h/t @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/jGH6KyX8eY — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 30, 2024 The 10y2y Yield is back to the 0 line. The Inverted Yield Curve is one of the most accurate recession indicators. The longest inversion prior to 2022: 16 monthsThe current inversion: 24 months …
We’re looking at multiple economic indicators like the yield curve and jobless claims to assess recession risks While an economic downturn is not here yet Risks of it are gradually increasing At this rate, we cannot rule out an H2 recession for sure — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 2, 2024 All the "job openings" were …
The second wave of inflation is becoming increasingly evident. Global freight costs continue to rise relentlessly byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
via Mike Shedlock We are in the midst of a “total loss” epidemic says “Car Dealership Guy” on Twitter. Pictures explain why. Used Car and Truck Prices vs Maintenance and Repairs CPI data, chart by Mish Total Loss Epidemic Cars have more electronic components then ever before..These components are pretty much unrepairable… So overall cost …
FBI Director Christopher Wray has warned of the heightened possibility of a coordinated terror attack in the US. Wray told NBC News the FBI is ‘increasingly concerned [about] the potential for some kind of coordinated attack here in the homeland.’ Explaining that such an event ‘may be not that different from what you saw against …
via Mike Shedlock China’s reliance on nonproductive debt for growth has been obvious for years. But let’s go over why that is so. 1/5Pekinology's very useful translation of Lan Xiaohuan on China's local government competition and overcapacity provides almost a definition of what the consequences are of a large and growing part of the Chinese …
BREAKING: Biden apologizes for calling Laken Riley's kiIIer an "illegal" "I'm not gonna treat any of these people with disrespect. They built this country." pic.twitter.com/nNTOLzq5vP — End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) March 9, 2024 It’s baffling how Democrats backtrack on addressing illegal immigration, bending over backward to downplay the severity of the issue. Biden’s flip-flop from “illegal” …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Politicians and corporate managers have an enviable record of self-enrichment but very little to show in terms of putting the long-term interests of the citizenry above their own short-term gains. This week’s focus is on self-reliance, a topic of increasing relevance than is more complex that it may seem. …
"Long Magnificent 7" is getting increasingly crowded, per FMS investors. via BofA pic.twitter.com/RoeR1Os4GK — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) January 16, 2024 Asset Managers are very bullish pic.twitter.com/6pXy9zj0x1 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) January 16, 2024 Amazon's, $AMZN, Audible has officially laid off off 5% of staff, per TC. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 16, 2024 "We remain …
by Michael America’s middle class is being systematically eviscerated. When the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system during the pandemic, most Americans didn’t realize what that would do to them. That money certainly made the wealthy a whole lot wealthier, but it also dramatically increased the cost of living for the …
by Michael High temperatures are not supposed to go above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in South America in the middle of winter. That is not supposed to happen. But it is happening. In fact, we are witnessing some really freakish things happen all over the globe right now. The increasingly erratic behavior of the giant ball …
George Carlin: “They call it the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe in it.” The American Dream is alive and well for most, but the younger generation and less educated do not share such optimism, according to a new poll conducted by NORC – University of Chicago. In a survey of …
