Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Retail is cooling. Not collapsing. But the heat is gone. The latest Redbook Index shows year-over-year growth of 5.2% for the week ending July 19. That’s down from 5.9% the week prior. The sample covers 9,000 stores and represents 80% of the Commerce Department’s retail data. It’s nominal. Not inflation-adjusted. So the real story is …
Momentum building toward fresh 52-week highs. Silver breakout surges while most of the world sleeps on it. The 45-Year Cup & Handle for Silver 🚨 Congrats everyone, it took a long time, but we did it 🥳🫂 pic.twitter.com/jPcG9Qzqsr — Barchart (@Barchart) July 21, 2025 🚨 Silver just touched $39 this morning — up $0.53 on …
SPX historically drops 2% after similar signals since 2011 According to BofA's Michael Hartnett, #sell #signals have been triggered.– BofA FMS Cash Rule: cash as % AUM in FMS 3.9%. = sell signal…average SPX loss in following most from 15 "sell" signals since 2011 = 2%;– BofA Global Breadth Rule: 64% of MSCI ACWI equity …
Brentwood is a fancy neighborhood for those who don’t know Los Angeles. Never thought I’d see stuff like that there. In broad daylight too. — Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) July 19, 2025 https://twitter.com/Tr00peRR/status/1946676658947432506 Same crew https://t.co/1RLyWY1JWb — The Daily Sneed™ (@Tr00peRR) July 20, 2025
1) What's extremely interesting is that home prices, for a very long time, simply tracked the rate of inflation. More specifically, from 1890 to 1990, over 100 years, inflation-adjusted prices never went more than 15% above their long-term trend line. — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 15, 2025 3) And it was in this period that …
Total household debt just hit a record $18.2T, up $167B in Q1. This isn’t prosperity. It’s survival—fueled by credit. Households aren’t thriving. They’re borrowing just to stay afloat. pic.twitter.com/jvqIHKvews — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) May 14, 2025 Total household debt increased by $167 billion in Q1 2025, to $18.20 trillion pic.twitter.com/FQSWotqNKD — Amanda Goodall …
The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go …
📈 Diverging Trade Paths: U.S. Deficit Hits $1.4 Trillion as China’s Surplus Climbs to $1.1 Trillion (LTM Q1 2025) byu/EconomySoltani inInfographics In the twelve months ending March 2025, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $1.4 trillion, a 30.3% increase from the prior year. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus rose 30.9% to $1.08 trillion. Since the onset …
The gap between home asking and sale prices is widening: The typical home seller in the US now wants ~$38,672 more than the average buyer is willing to pay, the biggest gap on record. The median asking price hit a record $469,729 in March, or 9% more than the $431,057 median sale price, the largest …
Before the trade war began, American companies sending goods to China paid nothing in tariffs. That was the status quo. Zero tax. A smooth transaction from the U.S. to China. But that clean slate is long gone. Now, any American product sent to China carries a ten percent tax. That includes not just finished goods …
The trade deficit will find another level but the situation is actually worse once people step back and think about sht for more than a degenerate price tick. The underlying problem with this disorderly “Flood the Zone” manner in which the current ‘rebalancing’ of US trade is being conducted is that trade disruptions are happening …
Issuing debt that the Fed then buys with created out of thin air funny money is so Zimbabwe 2.0. The fed is already sitting on over $1.5 trillion in bonds. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAS10Y The train is out of control… The first 7 months of FY 2025 produced a deficit of $1.1 Trillion. That’s $196 Billion more than …
Should be an interesting opening in the morning. Futures deteriorating all night 💀 pic.twitter.com/lL2jkbz91G — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 6, 2025 $SPY This is going to be interesting, they're running it right up to the 200d likely ahead of Powell and that's exactly what happened in 2022 when prices hit the 200d and Powell did …
Today, the feds start collecting on 5 million+ defaulted student loan borrowers with collections. We have a 20.5% delinquency rate (90 days+) – highest ever recorded (TransUnion) Tax refunds will be seized through the Treasury Offset Program. Social Security benefits cut by up… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) May 5, 2025 More Than Half of Subprime …
🚨The US job market is deteriorating: Long-term unemployment hit 1.67 MILLION in April, the highest in 3 YEARS. The share of individuals unemployed for more than 27 weeks of total unemployment hit 23.5%, the highest in 3 years. This has never occurred outside of recessions. pic.twitter.com/wLh8mDxEDN — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 5, 2025 🚨 …
PALANTIR Q1 2025 EARNINGS: – $883M revenue, +39% YoY – $628M US revenues, +55% YoY – $373M US Gov revenues, +45% YoY – $2.32B RDV, +127% YoY – 769 customers, +39% YoY – $5.4B in cash, no debt – 139 deals closed of at least $1M Except nobody with a brain would buy right now …
It’s not just KFC, prices at Popeyes Chicken have risen so high they too are over $50 dollars for a 16 piece meal Again, everything on this menu is so expensive Who can afford this? Popeyes Chicken takes EBT, it must be them pic.twitter.com/tuU6hZgEPX — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 1, 2025
In 1975, 81% of American men under 30 were married. For women, it was 91%. Today, only 16% of men and 25% of women under 30 have a spouse. This is not a social drift. It is a free fall. A collapse that says more about the cost of living than it does about the …
Citibank, used by 200 million Americans, was hit by a nationwide outage. The bank’s website showed an error message: ‘We’ve encountered an issue and are working to fix the issue.’ No other details have been provided except for customers to return to the website 10 to 15 minutes later. The issues were fixed around 2pm …
Bullish! https://t.co/60XMDdvb6s — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 29, 2025 Americans’ confidence in the economy slumped for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as anxiety over the impact of tariffs takes a heavy toll. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points …
BNPL: do you love it or hate it? 41% of users missed payments in the past year (LendingTree 2025), and with credit cards at 11.35% delinquency (Fed), it’s a lifeline for some, a nightmare for others. Now BNPL is being reported to credit reports. YIKES! 200K+ of you felt very… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) April …
by confoundedinterest17 Washington DC is loaded with good ol’ boys. Willing to cut deals with anyone for a slice of financial pie. Like “10% For The Big Guy” Joe Biden. Money flowing into Treasury funds hit its highest since 2017, by far. And with the massive expansion of The Fed’s balance sheet with a) the financial crisis …
People who had an unhealthy relationship with smoking, drinking and exercise early in life ended up on the fast track to mental and physical health troubles by their mid-30s, according to a new study by the Laurea University of Applied Sciences in Finland. “Our findings highlight the importance of tackling risky health behaviors, such as …
BREAKING: The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -8.1 points in April, recording the 3rd negative reading this year. More importantly, 6-month outlook for general business conditions plummeted to -7.4, the lowest in 24 years. Additionally, the 6-month outlook for new orders fell to -6.6, the lowest in history. Not even the 2008 Financial …
🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6-month outlook for new orders -26. An all-time record low! Chart: @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/wmKOQNUzGZ — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) April 23, 2025 Goldman Sachs, $GS, says to brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads and recession — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 23, 2025 JPMORGAN: MIGRATION CONCERNS HURTING U.S. TOURISM This is …
The global community received a shocking warning from China through its April 21st 2025 ultimatum which stated that any nation joining U.S. trade deals would face China’s “firm countermeasures.” Let that sink in. The second-largest economy in the world declared its intention to impose economic sanctions on all nations that conduct business with the United …
A federal judge has temporarily stopped the Trump administration’s efforts to streamline Voice of America and related networks, saying the moves may conflict with federal law. The ruling orders the government to restore jobs and funding at outlets like Radio Free Asia and the Middle East Broadcasting Networks — despite efforts to reduce bureaucracy and …
Here’s a crazy idea.. give mothers at least 12 months maternity paid, give fathers six months, tax rebates to families with children until 18 and subsidies for daycare.. There’s no reason for women to have children if they’re gonna be broke the rest of their lives… — Tiffiny Fawcett (@tiffinyfawcett) April 22, 2025 The second …
