Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
OUCH! The bond-market sell-off is continuing, w/German 30y yields climbing to their highest level since 2011 byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts If in doubt, the answer is always higher taxes or higher inflation. THE ENDGAME HAS BEGAN byu/Visible-Title6180 inWallstreetsilver h/t sunk-capital
Tell me again how this is fine. This 10-day squeeze is among the biggest of the last few years. Source: Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/spGr4YK6rF — Connor Bates (@ConnorJBates_) December 4, 2025 During inflationary paradigms, midterm election years tend to be a time for the admin in charge to shift focus from keeping their donors bellies full to …
Natural Gas spikes to highest price in 3 years 📈📈 pic.twitter.com/hRlDg5Vxe9 — Barchart (@Barchart) December 4, 2025 U.S. natural gas futures spiked to their highest levels in nearly three years as models now show a frigid first half of December across the Lower 48. Several forecasters are also warning of a potential polar-vortex-driven Arctic blast …
Challenger, Gray & Christmas said layoff plans totaled 71,321 in November, a step down from the massive cuts announced in October but still enough to bring the 2025 total up to 1.17 million. The most-cited reason for the month was restructuring, followed by closings and market or economic conditions. Announced job cuts from U.S. employers …
BREAKING: U.S. unemployment rate blows past expectations, soaring to the highest level in years. — Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 20, 2025 NOW – DHS Secretary Noem on H-1Bs: "Under the Trump admin, we've sped up our process and added integrity to the visa programs, to green cards, to all of that, but also more people are …
https://twitter.com/spice1975503/status/1991520334458343476 Noticing a growing number of Fed officials voicing concerns about private credit lately. But this one is esp notable where one of them is openly highlighting risks among life insurers (its largest investor base). If the Fed is concerned about lifers, things are quite serious. pic.twitter.com/sC3uUFrdKq — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) November 20, 2025 Everything’s …
The only thing offices provided was overhead. Remote work kept the productivity. AI took the rest. pic.twitter.com/vyNRPlq3Ee — Cactus Jack (@CactusJackMemo) November 20, 2025 The U.S. office market has hit a critical point, with vacancy rates soaring to historic highs and creating major challenges for property owners and lenders, according to Reuters. Remote work and …
Electricity prices are surging, voters are growing angry, and the artificial intelligence industry’s data centers are increasingly a target for blame with U.S. mid-term elections on the horizon. Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The …
There’s already a notable drop in consumption, truck fright in the US is down 17% YoY, while shipping containers inbound from China is down 15% YoY. JUST IN: Powell says job creation is "close to zero" due to AI — Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 7, 2025 The top 10% of U.S. households hold 87% of all …
Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003. Companies in the technology sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September. “Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the …
There are around 772,000 homeless Americans (nearly 230 for ever 100,000 Americans), according to the last time a point-in-count assessment was done in 2024. In this visualization, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, take a look at the highest homelessness rates by state, measured per 100,000 residents. Hawaii tops the ranking with 805 people experiencing homelessness for …
by Mike Maharrey Central bank gold buying hit the highest level of the year in September, with several new banks adding to their reserves. Globally, central banks officially added a net 39 tonnes of gold to their holdings in September. That was up 79 percent month-on-month and was above the 12-month average of 27 tonnes. …
The Fed is ending QT on Dec 1st. If you think wealth inequality in the United States is bad now… wait until QE5. pic.twitter.com/tD6kz7ZuaF — Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) October 29, 2025 HOLY SH**$CMG pic.twitter.com/olsjYrOqA3 — Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) October 30, 2025 Cars will be free in 5 years. Just grab one off …
Food banks usually do not have the resources to support such a large influx of people. I am hoping these local communities get together to help feed these individuals and families. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Saturday that food benefits under one of the country’s biggest social assistance programs will not be …
We’re about to enter the retail holiday season. Give it a few more weeks to see the real horror. Trucking freight volumes, a signal for the goods economy are a dumpster fire right now (-17% YoY) pic.twitter.com/4YPkLJtHdu — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 27, 2025 Hiring is at its lowest since 2009. But we’re still …
Google Searches for Dollar "Debasement" soar to highest level in history 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/StG3Y1dtKp — Barchart (@Barchart) October 23, 2025
“On behalf of the Department of War, we extend our deepest gratitude to Admiral Alvin Holsey for his more than 37 years of distinguished service to our nation as he plans to retire at year’s end. A native of Fort Valley, Georgia, Admiral Holsey has exemplified the highest standards of naval leadership since his commissioning …
Gold will continue to climb and if Japan sells bonds real slow in the hopes that no one will notice … … … will not help. — K. (@Kayteetav) October 6, 2025 America is Insolvent. The Dollar is Worthless. pic.twitter.com/uIwQxBp2dz — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) October 6, 2025 Facts: business demand is way down. Prices are …
Commercial delienquent obligations in a parapbolic uptrend pic.twitter.com/BdsleKWmKu — Ari.Is.Investing (@InFoTheLongTerm) October 5, 2025 The office and multifamily sectors of commercial real estate loans got further bludgeoned in August, despite large-scale extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals executed in the hopes for better times and lower interest rates and more demand so that lenders don’t end up …
Get to the back. Get to the back. There’s too much weight in the front. pic.twitter.com/AzRnR09Kb4 — Neil (@neilfromsa) October 5, 2025 They're running it hot…. pic.twitter.com/qLHDICSaWV — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) October 5, 2025 New highs in the S&P 500 continue. The pace of gain has slowed as the S&P 500 nears its 5-year …
Chinese Stock Market closes at highest level since January 2022 📈 pic.twitter.com/2stRIJEMmx — Barchart (@Barchart) October 1, 2025
JUST IN 🚨: Japan 10-Year Bond Yield hits highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/tYCu25ZL7R — Barchart (@Barchart) September 26, 2025 Bitcoin Major trend breach. This not good.This very bad. pic.twitter.com/zdp0u6thRk — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 26, 2025
PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PCE 2.7% YoY, Exp. 2.7% PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2% PCE Core 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.9% But the trend is one – inflation goes UP pic.twitter.com/TmrXCFoc3C — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) September 26, 2025 The Fed has to keep cutting rates. The cost of borrowing is far too high …
France is staring at a fiscal standoff that feels less like governance and more like extortion. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has been told he cannot pass a budget or even remain in office without Socialist backing. Their price is blunt: a new “Zucman tax,” two percent annually on assets above one hundred million euros Reuters. …
Holy. Shit. Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion. The US economy is running HOT. pic.twitter.com/aDQHxtq4iY — Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 16, 2025 For the rate of inflation to be dropping (LOL Trump) or even flat during this time frame tells you that consumption has completely evaporated. It …
It’s their fastest-growing, most concentrated segment. If one pulls back, everything suffers, including margins, hiring, and priorities. What happens when one or both of these customers stop buying due to e.g.recession fears. The stock is 5 – 10% of major indices.https://t.co/rrXevbQqYm — Marko Kolanovic (@markoinny) September 15, 2025 It is not only a Bubble, it …
RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a momentum indicator in technical analysis. It measures the speed and change of price movements on a scale of 0-100. Readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions (potential sell signal), while below 30 indicate oversold (potential buy). In gold’s case, a high RSI might signal overextension. Highway to the Danger …
Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing. …
The UK has no choice but to start cutting its welfare bill, this could happen here in the US. The UK faces the doom loop of rising borrowing costs, growing deficits and a government facing a lot of bad choices to raise revenues. Yields on 30-year gilts have reached their highest levels since 1998. (1 …
https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1962197481111834696 Housing *does* need help, but totally agree if they cut FFR it’ll just make things worse Since cutting cycle of 100bps last sept, 30Y UP 100bps Eventually I also think they try another George W Bush type program (when the rate cuts don’t work)https://t.co/42buOXff4f — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) September 1, 2025 We’re now …