Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
“In a stagflation scenario, the risk is that rates will be higher for longer and credit losses will begin to accumulate, in particular for lenders to tech, growth, and VC, where borrowers are characterized by having no earnings and low coverage ratios.” Apollo Sadly, today's gap up in markets won't fix this. Per FDIC, the …
For higher education, “AI’s takeover [is] a full-blown existential crisis.” “College is just how well I can use ChatGPT at this point.” “I think we are years — or months, probably — away from a world where nobody thinks using AI for homework is considered cheating.” “It isn’t as if cheating is new. But now, …
Powell admitted that even though the markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts this year, Powell himself has no idea if the Fed will be cutting rates at all this year. The truth is the Fed should be hiking rates. Cutting rates instead would just compound the Fed's mistake. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 7, …
The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged. They are warning of higher risks due to tariff shock. Here we go… — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) May 7, 2025 FED DECISION HIGHLIGHTS – MAY 7, 2025 1.Interest rates held steady for the third consecutive meeting. 2.Inflation described as still “somewhat elevated.” 3.Economic outlook grows murkier, with …
Global money supply is exploding higher, led by the #PBOC. Next stop for #Bitcoin is 120k. Mark my words boys mark them well. pic.twitter.com/pPlk2eaapR — James Choi (@JC_Investment) May 7, 2025 Boom. Breaking news: China to cut a series of rates: Reserve ratio requirement by 0.5ppt7-day reverse repo to 1.4% (from 1.5%)Structural tools rate by …
Leading indicators suggest inflation is set to rebound: The index of prices paid by New York manufacturers jumped to 51 points in April, the highest since August 2022. At the same time, the Philadelphia manufacturing prices paid index rose to 51 points, the highest since July 2022. All while the Dallas and Kansas manufacturing prices …
Fun fact: all of the options are “by raising prices and/or cutting expenses. h/t kmmeow1
honestly, this is like February 2020 with absolutely no public awareness of what would hit within weeks (bonus – full thread starting Feb 2, 2020 for those who have any interest in watching a profoundly mishandled slow-motion trainwreck day by day: https://t.co/bewiFY9GSg) https://t.co/mbjjD8xGiz pic.twitter.com/OICJraFzlv — John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) May 4, 2025 (sigh)Tariffs went …
Barack Obama: 75% of illegals deported received NO Due Process Bill Clinton: 90% of illegals deported received NO Due Process All the sudden Democrats in 2025 want 100% of illegals to receive Due Process BECAUSE NOW IT’S ABOUT VOTES Barack Obama “If you’re a criminal, you’ll be deported. If you plan to enter The US …
“If it were up to me, I’d kick a lot of these outlets out.” Me to @CNN 🤣 pic.twitter.com/1cAxg4nMGb — Natalie Winters (@nataliegwinters) April 23, 2025
Treasury bond yields going higher, dollar going lower. We’ve never seen this before. byu/Boo_Randy_II inSilverDegenClub
Yeah, this is definitely not over Yen and Franc absolutely *ripping* higher, along with gold CPI came in cool, and the curve is steepening notably Dollar down big time as ES/NQ and long end continues to sell off https://t.co/H6j1P6F07K pic.twitter.com/CrFR6276Tv — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) April 10, 2025 You've been warned [2] pic.twitter.com/JAFkZGIrRQ — Guilherme …
by David Haggith It’s “sell America” everywhere in a tectonic-scale economic breakdown. Get out of American stocks, then leap back in. Dump US bonds, then buy hard. Ditch the dollar. Get your gold out of the country. Today morphed into a do-everything-the-opposite-at-the-same-time kind of day. The morning started with loud screams of deleveraging everywhere, but …
Junk bond yields have exploded pic.twitter.com/F8Slv78mou — The Great Martis (@great_martis) April 7, 2025 High-yield spreads are blowing out…$SPY $TLT pic.twitter.com/zV75YPlXh5 — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) April 7, 2025 Market distress is skyrocketing: US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 bps since April 2nd, to 4.45%, the highest since October 2023. This marks the largest …
President Trump just accused Fed Chair Powell of always being "late" to cut rates. Despite markets pricing-in more rate cuts, Powell is saying he is willing to wait. US stocks are extending losses. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 4, 2025 I think he is …
by Michael The global trade war is officially heating up. President Trump just unveiled a series of tariffs that were higher than expected, and business leaders all over the world are absolutely stunned. For many of those that have made a killing importing goods into the United States, their businesses have now been ruined. For many …
We are in a recession! ⚠️This is HUGE: 1.2 MILLION people lost full-time jobs in the US in February, the 2nd-highest reading since the 2020 CRISIS. This comes after January upward revision of 2.4 million due to historic population adjustment. Is the US job market cracking?👇https://t.co/3owdJozuXU — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 1, 2025 🚨US …
This is a huge problem and the Bees are the canary in the coal mine…When we lose the pollinators it is game over. Share the video and stay vigilant
The median household income necessary to purchase the median priced home for sale in the US ($124k) is now 57% higher than the current median household income ($79k). This is the most unaffordable housing market in history. Video: https://t.co/3GVJzoEu3z pic.twitter.com/lwqEsx6jX5 — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 27, 2025
After shattering $3,000 an ounce (just days after we made the prediction!) we ask, what’s next for gold? After surveying the current state of both gold supply and global demand, the short answer to the question is simply this: The sky’s the limit… By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories …
A projected $500 billion drop in tax revenue means the government will have to sell even more bonds, adding pressure to an already strained market. With the deficit already at $1.8 trillion, this increases bond issuance by roughly 27%, pushing supply up while demand remains uncertain. That could send long-term interest rates higher, especially if …
Today is set to be the strongest Monday morning opening gap higher for the S&P 500 $SPY since 10/17/22. pic.twitter.com/2hbTZlOPau — Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 24, 2025 25 years ago today, after rallying 14.6% in the prior month, the S&P 500 hit its 'Dot Com Bubble' peak. The index would fall 25% over the next year …
anyone care that the US Dollar is getting the crap kicked out of it? pic.twitter.com/vwYzS2M3wb — J.C. Parets (@JC_ParetsX) March 5, 2025 Dollar lower, hard assets higher. We are at a key turning point in history and a global rebalancing is now unfolding, in my view. pic.twitter.com/bstJ0gjVOo — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 5, 2025 …
Voters weren’t crazy. The economy felt worse because it was worse. The government cooked the books, pretending unemployment was low, wages were up, and growth was strong—meanwhile, people were struggling to pay rent and keep food on the table. Washington elites dismissed their concerns as ignorance, blaming “right-wing media” instead of asking the real question: …
It’s hard to ignore the everyday reality we’re living in. When you go to the store and see your coffee, eggs, or beef prices skyrocket, you can’t help but feel that something’s off. We’re constantly told the numbers don’t match up — inflation is “only” 3.75% for coffee, 25% for eggs, but reality paints a …
We won the last election by complaining about Democrats' policies, which gave us high prices. Tariff lovers will be forced to explain the persistence of high prices…https://t.co/1Tc9HdSEHi — Rand Paul (@RandPaul) February 1, 2025 Out of all the news headlines that came out this weekend, this is the most shocking . pic.twitter.com/gwXrMDiM7y — Anna Wong …
The downside of Trump backing away from tariffs is that there will not be an offset to the income tax cuts or net spending increases that are coming soon. That means larger budget deficits and higher inflation to finance the debt. One way or another, American consumers will pay. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 21, …
Russian sanctions triggered more than a surge in oil prices. Financial markets near-panicked bought in near-term futures contracts. While the jump in energy is already being called an huge inflation risk, it isn’t even close. On the contrary, oil spikes always end a certain way.
1. As of today, $ALLY is exiting its mortgage origination business. — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) January 9, 2025 3. Burdened by mortgages made to borrowers with shoddy credit, $Ally began reporting losses in 2007 that reached $10.3 billion in 2009. The U.S. engineered the bailout to ensure that money kept flowing to the auto industry and …
