Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Credit & stock markets pricing in 250bps rate cuts and 18% SPX EPS growth between now and end-2025…don’t get much better than that for risk so investors forced to chase. – BofA pic.twitter.com/OYr3EKJZbR — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 25, 2024 Nvidia and Apple account for over 20% of the average retail investor's portfolio. pic.twitter.com/MiGahSKhdY …
"FMS investors have predicted worsening profits for two months in a row." – BofA Hartnett pic.twitter.com/LDOHf9m49q — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 18, 2024 “FMS investors” typically refers to participants in the Fund Manager Survey (FMS) conducted by institutions like Bank of America. This survey gathers insights from global fund managers to gauge their outlook on …
"Growth data has been more likely to fall short of expectations than at any time in nearly a decade."@NewEdgeWealth pic.twitter.com/LuPu2i9kak — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 14, 2024 Especially temporary help services. They are the first to go and first to come back pic.twitter.com/eEyjdig4xR — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) September 14, 2024 Why is Buffett dumping all …
🚨ELON ON TRACK TO BECOME WORLD'S FIRST TRILLIONAIRE BY 2027 Elon is on pace to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027, according to a report by Informa Connect Academy. With his wealth growing at an annual rate of 110%, Musk, already the world's richest person at… pic.twitter.com/252gkLS4Vj — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 8, 2024 …
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2023041pap.pdf
CHI Fed: manufacturing and service sector growth in Aug was below trend, though not nearly as bad as last year’s lows; while cost pressures decreased, so did planned capital investment and hiring, while outlook deteriorated, now pessimistic on balance: CHI Fed: manufacturing and service sector growth in Aug was below trend, though not nearly as …
Consumer Credit Card Debt Continues to Grow Consumer credit card debt in the US continues its upward trajectory, reaching a staggering $1.07 trillion as of August 14, 2024. This marks another milestone in the ongoing trend of rising consumer debt, though there are signs that… pic.twitter.com/Il5SBi52Zl — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) August 27, 2024
by TonyLiberty Fed chief Powell to set table for September rate cut at Jackson Hole, but jobs data will set the size Oh yay. Only 2.9% higher than the 4.5% increase last year and the 8.8% higher increase the year before and the 3% before. So we are only 21% higher than 4 years ago. …
by Dismal-Jellyfish TLDRS: Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit (credit cards) increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent. Nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent. Consumer Credit …
RIGHT NOW, STOCKS ARE BAKED FOR PERFECTION: ONE WRONG MOVE AND YOU'RE TOAST! — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 8, 2024
(Bloomberg) — The Hispanic population in the US grew by 3.2 million from the beginning of the pandemic to mid-2023, making up 91% of the country’s overall gain, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data. An uptick in immigration alongside shifts in both births and deaths from April 2020 to July 2023 has contributed …
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1818953185555268035 "For the JOLTS, response rates are barely above 30%, and numbers answering inflation and employment surveys have also dropped severely."@johnauthers pic.twitter.com/6Zx1QlRcwp — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) August 1, 2024 Much of the head fake improvement in manufacturing in early 2024 was due to a non-cyclical increase in auto production. Meanwhile, the rest of the manufacturing …
by Mike Shedlock ADP data shows year-over-year payroll growth is negative 88,000 for small corporations sized 20-49. Trends are negative in all but very large corporations. Data from ADP, chart by Mish I created some new charts today from a download of the ADP National Employment Report for July. Year-Over-Year Payroll Growth Key Points Trends are very …
https://t.co/EQKqdh6AzlPrice Drop! — Future Talk (@FutureTalk_X) July 31, 2024 Morgan Stanley: Only 3% chance GDP will decline in 2025. Trust the science! pic.twitter.com/oMupYTLCqa — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) July 31, 2024 The real estate market is a significant part of the U.S. economy. In 2023, it contributed approximately 18% to the national GDP. This includes residential, commercial, and industrial …
Of course Julian Emanuel (Sr Director of Derivatives) wants everyone to stay fully invested. He fails to explain derivatives speculation in small caps while mega caps sell off is always how the market finishes the economic cycle right before collapse.https://t.co/C0RiBmR3J6 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 31, 2024 I'm shocked people think rates will go down instead …
by Mike Shedlock At the heart of these revisions is a horribly flawed birth-death model used by the BLS. My calculation closely matches an estimate by Bloomberg’s chief Economist. Data from the BLS, chart by Mish This is a complicated post that goes into some of the more arcane procedures the BLS uses to produce …
Marketing costs expected to jump 15% this year, company says Full-year profit guidance climbs after sale of Accertify American Express Co. said it’s planning to increase spending on marketing even as billings growth on the company’s credit cards slowed in the second quarter. Shares of the payments giant fell the most in nine months after the …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought us up to date with our leading indicator for the Chinese economy. So let me hand you over to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Second, the real estate market has become more active recently. All regions and departments have adapted to the new situation of major changes …
LIUZHOU, China—Officials were bullish about the future of their factory town in early 2019. The economy was prospering, a new industrial district was on the way and an elevated light-rail system was taking shape. “The achievements of the past year have not come easily,” Mayor Wu Wei said in a city report at the time. …
"Global economic growth acceleration pauses in June, as expansions in output and new orders slow."@SPGlobalPMI pic.twitter.com/b8Q70xKBvN — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 8, 2024
by confoundedinterest17 Where the jobs aren’t! Calfironia under Gavin Newsom and their Marxist elected officials. Based on the most recent release of the early benchmarks, payroll jobs declined by 32,000 from September 2023 through December 2023. On the contrary, the preliminary monthly reports showed a solid increase in job growth (+117,000 jobs) at the time. With the fourth quarter revision, calendar year …
by Michael Over the past three years, millions of migrants have come pouring into this country looking for a better life. They were promised that things would be so much better once they got here, but for so many of them that has turned out to be not true at all. There just aren’t enough …
https://t.co/XRQyFT6twm — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) June 23, 2024
Fantastic point! ALSO, NBER recession announcement comes with a LONG LAG In the last 6 recessions, announcement of when a recession started was 234 days after the GDP data was released on average The Great Financial Crisis of 07-09 was announced a year after it started — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 19, 2024
The U.S. population growth has slowed over the years. The current birth rate in the United States for 2024 is 12.009 births per 1000 people, representing a 0.12% decline from the previous year. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, the American birthrate fell to its lowest point yet, with just 18.4 live births per thousand population. The economic hardships and widespread poverty …
The narrative is changing? BofA: The market is now more concerned about growth than rates pic.twitter.com/VcF11jM6Ko — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 17, 2024 This month, US households' real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade. pic.twitter.com/dqk9as12aY — (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) June 17, 2024
Chinese Yuan hit the lowest level versus the US dollar since November 2023. The yuan fell to as low as 7.2487 driven by capital outflows in China, disappointing growth and fear that the Federal Reserve rate-cut cycle will be delayed. pic.twitter.com/5p7jx0kQcf — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 29, 2024 Business with China 🇨🇳 📉 pic.twitter.com/gRKYF5mXBz …
Trigger Warning: Chart of the Day: Citi Surprise Index vs SFR9 My hypothesis is that the US economy has begun to slow due to the long and variable lags of monetary policy finally starting to offset the positive benefits that have come from higher government deficits putting… pic.twitter.com/KP9FXPKLqH — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) May 16, 2024 …
In a rebuke of the neo-liberal orthodoxy which has dominated both major political parties in Britain, a study has found that mass migration has not actually stimulated the economy and has been a major drag on public services and the housing sector. bet its the same in the US too A report from the Centre …
