Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The latest data show that Americans are taking an increasingly grim view of the U.S. economy and their own financial outlooks as uncertainty from the Trump administration’s tariff hikes and other policy changes drags on. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping 7.2 points to a reading of 92.9 …
Markets are hanging by a thread, and most don’t see it coming. High-yield corporate bond spreads just spiked 60 basis points in a month—hitting a six-month high. Investment-grade spreads aren’t far behind, climbing to their highest level since September. These are stress fractures in the system, warning signs that something is breaking. 🚨WARNING🚨 S&P500 2008 …
The idea that we should tolerate foreign agitators who openly support terrorism while enjoying the freedoms of America is laughable. Mahmoud Khalil, a Columbia University student, found that out the hard way when the feds detained him with plans to kick him out. Suddenly, the left is crying about “free speech,” even though they cheered …
WASHINGTON (AP) — Trump says he’s lifting tariffs on most goods from Mexico for 4 weeks amid economic fears from trade war. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-hes-lifting-tariffs-163610783.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-likely-defer-tariffs-usmca-153549096.html Update: Tariffs against Canada are also paused https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-likely-defer-tariffs-usmca-153549096.html h/t Patrick_Liu
by Michael Will “the Big One” soon hit the west coast? While most people are fixated on the political drama that is currently unfolding in Washington, very important events are happening elsewhere too. Within the past 7 days, California and Nevada have been hit by more than 900 earthquakes. And just within the past 24 hours, there …
Stock futures were down sharply on Monday on concern about an artificial intelligence stock bubble popping because of the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek that possibly made a competitive AI model for a fraction of the cost. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 430 points, or 1%, while S&P futures shed 2.3%. …
China 30 year continues to drift lower, yield 1.854%. Deflation and the lost decade are real possibilities. With over capacity in manufacturing it’s only a matter of time before deflation reached the west. pic.twitter.com/GUzESzA0QB — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) January 8, 2025 🚨DEFLATIONARY IS COMING TO CHINA🚨 China's economy has seen deflation for 6 STRAIGHT …
A popular home-internet router from China could face a complete ban as soon as next year as authorities investigate their potential link to cyberattack fears. The China-based router manufacturer TP-Link is under federal investigation after recent cyberattacks on top US officials sparked urgency to quash any national vulnerabilities for more cyber threats. The company holds …
Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fiscal expansion. We’ll go over what that is, how it is different from QE, and what the real takeaway is. I see that China Stimulus …
A major party and craft retailer with 850 stores across the nation is considering filing for bankruptcy. Party City has been faced with the possibility of mass closures just a little over a year after the company surfaced from Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The celebration retailer, known for selling balloons and essential party supplies, is currently …
Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn’t seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn’t that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues …
Biden-Harris Admin Races To Dish Out $25 Billion for Green Energy Before Trump Takes Office, Sparking Fraud Fears Frantic pace ‘only increases the risk for Solyndra style waste and abuse,’ House Energy chair warns President Joe Biden speaks on Earth Day (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) Thomas Catenacci November 22, 2024 The Biden administration is in a …
Ukraine’s parliament cancelled its session scheduled for Friday (Nov 22), citing concerns about the risk of a Russian missile attack targeting Kyiv’s government district. “The hour of questions to the government has been cancelled,” a member of parliament from the ruling party told news agency AFP. Yevgenia Kravchuk, another MP, said, “There are signals of …
A troubling trend is brewing in the U.S. retail sector. Big names like Walmart, Dollar General, Home Depot, Kohl’s and other retailers are canceling billions of dollars in orders for this holiday season. The last time this happened was in 2022, right after interest rates started to rise. Now, a much deeper issue is forcing …
Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but to markets position for longer recessionary period while facing #liquidity issues. Swap spreads falling to zero and strong bull steepening was last observed in 2008 #GFC. German interest rates set alarm bells ringing. Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but …
TLDR Migrant caravan in Mexico halves in size after Trump’s election win Many migrants, disheartened by Trump’s tough border stance, turn back Trump’s immigration policies could include birthright citizenship end and increased deportations Some continue journey, hoping to secure asylum before Trump assumes office Impact of Trump’s previous policies left many migrants stranded at the …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQaU7vtL0-4 The recent warning issued by Goldman Sachs about a potential market crash has sent shockwaves through Wall Street and global markets. Goldman Sachs’s analysts have sounded the alarm, urging investors to brace for a massive sell-off that could decimate portfolios and erode trillions in market capitalization. The warning from Goldman Sachs carries significant weight, …
Furniture sales in the U.S. have plummeted, signaling a significant downturn in the industry. In January 2024 alone, sales at furniture stores dropped by 9.8% compared to the previous year. This decline is prompting many retailers to hold going-out-of-business sales, particularly among smaller retailers struggling to stay afloat. Consumers are shifting their spending habits, moving …
Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says we are getting down to the wire with the 2024 Election, and the Deep State Dems are in panic mode. Could we have a false flag, martial law, debt crisis, default, war or all of the above? Armstrong says, “They want war. There is no question …
Oil prices tumbled Monday with markets relieved that Israel’s strikes on Iran had avoided the country’s energy infrastructure while the yen fell to a three-month low after Japan’s ruling party suffered an election drubbing. Israel carried out air strikes on military sites in Iran on Saturday in response to Tehran’s October 1 missile barrage, itself …
The recent downgrade of France’s debt rating to negative by Moody’s has sent shockwaves through Europe, reigniting fears of a potential debt crisis reminiscent of the turmoil seen in previous years. The term “EU debt crisis 2.0” is now being thrown around, warning that the continent might once again grapple with severe financial instability. While …
It happened again. Today’s stock market plunge was sparked by an unsettling move from the Bank of Canada, cutting interest rates by 0.5%. The implications of this seemingly small shift are much more profound than they appear on the surface. Canada’s economy is slowing down at an alarming rate, and this drastic measure was taken …
NEW: @joerogan says the establishment is "terrified" of @realDonaldTrump and @elonmusk's plan for a government efficiency agency. "That's why I think they're really terrified about Trump. He's not going to play the game." "He's talked about having Elon come in to do a… pic.twitter.com/LXOHfGWCDJ — KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) September 27, 2024 Trump's work with Elon Musk, …
The SEC accidentally published internal commentary along with a speech by Chair Gary Gensler, which included a recommendation to reassure markets that there was no “imminent crisis”. This internal comment was quickly deleted from the SEC’s website, but not before it was archived. The speech by Mr. Gensler addressed financial crises, bank restructurings, and the …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stepped up to the podium at Jackson Hole and announced the inflation fight was over – because the balance of economic risks has shifted. Here’s what they’re so worried about… From Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group Remember how the Biden administration, the Fed, and corporate media has kept saying the economy …
🚨 The markets are spooked. The stink from the deteriorating fundamentals and overleveraged consumers are seeping. The BOJ's rate hike just sped up the process. Now, the markets are beyond spooked, BOJ will raise interest again and it had happened before – a reality check 🧵 — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) August 10, 2024 2. Japan flip-flopped …
The yield curves on the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury briefly normalized Monday morning, with the spreads turning positive, before re-inverting. Yields briefly rebounded on Monday before inching lower again, after fresh economic data showed the U.S. services sector grew at a faster-than-expected pace in July. The ISM services index recorded a 51.4% reading for …
Over $2.9 trillion has been wiped out from major indices and stocks this morning due to growing fears of a global recession. byu/External-Noise-4832 inconspiracy Stocks sunk on Friday morning after investors were spooked by a weak jobs report. The unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in almost three years – hitting 4.3 percent in …
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1818953185555268035 "For the JOLTS, response rates are barely above 30%, and numbers answering inflation and employment surveys have also dropped severely."@johnauthers pic.twitter.com/6Zx1QlRcwp — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) August 1, 2024 Much of the head fake improvement in manufacturing in early 2024 was due to a non-cyclical increase in auto production. Meanwhile, the rest of the manufacturing …