Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Tomorrow marks ten years since the Brexit vote. And the funny thing is that both sides can point to the same numbers and claim victory. Brexit absolutely changed immigration. The UK ended free movement with the European Union. Hundreds of thousands fewer EU workers are in Britain than many economists expected before Brexit. That part …
The “quick win” strategy in Tehran has officially evaporated. After the massive US-Israeli opening strikes on February 28, the Iranian regime has not only absorbed the initial kinetic shock but has successfully transitioned into a war of attrition. The conflict, which was sold as a path to rapid capitulation, has instead morphed into a regional …
TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. forces disabled M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, May 8, prior to both vessels entering an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman in violation of the ongoing U.S. blockade. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) enforced blockade measures against two Iranian-flagged unladen oil tankers attempting to pull into an Iranian port …
NEW – Toronto is so dangerous now that they have armed soldiers patrolling the streets. but, they pass it off as a team of super cool people who will take selfies with you. (also, they are going to get heat stroke in like 2 minutes) pic.twitter.com/PEjJ3eGFJx — Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) April 25, 2026 AC
Do you normally quadruple your stockpile of munitions when you’re expecting a war to be over soon? This doesn’t sound good to me. pic.twitter.com/otewZhJP2P — The ₿itcoin Therapist (@TheBTCTherapist) March 6, 2026 BESSENT: WE MAY UNSANCTION OTHER RUSSIAN OIL -FOX BUSINESS — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 6, 2026 BREAKING: Iran rejects cease-fire negotiations, says ready …
via KEVIN Via several Michael Howell videos I explained that the money supply is the main driver of inflation and asset markets – so its a lot more complicated than “inflation is up, so rates must go up – central banks will try and reduce the money supply by making loans more expensive”.The money supply …
Michael Burry warns the U.S. stock market could face a crash worse than the 2000 dot‑com bubble. The veteran investor says several tough years may be ahead for investors. He points to the surge in AI and tech stock valuations, combined with the dominance of passive investing, as key risks. Burry, known for predicting the …
Prediction: Q2 was the best GDP print we see this year. We spent that quarter front loading inventory ahead of the tariffs. We will see what the tariffed economy really looks like in the second half of the year. Expecting a slowdown. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 13, 2025 what if the Fed cuts rates …
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a billionaire hedge fund manager who worked for George Soros, insists, “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream”. The Donald Trump administration knows its tariffs will result in higher inflation. Products will become more expensive as the US tries to economically decouple from China. Ben …
🇺🇸 CPI FORECAST: Zero firms on Wall Street are expecting a cooler inflation print tomorrow. 📈 $SPY pic.twitter.com/O8Y7LJru2U — LuxAlgo (@LuxAlgo) January 14, 2025
There’s a reason why the big boys have been selling and holding cash. The market may not correct right away but when it bottoms it will take years to recover. The difficulty will be determining when the bottom is in. — JettBlast (@JettBlast00) September 18, 2024 8/ The Fed cuts rates in response to economic …
US consumer confidence eased this month due to a more muted outlook for business conditions, the job market, and incomes. The Conference Board’s gauge of sentiment decreased to 100.4 from a downwardly revised 101.3 reading in May . Specifically, expectations for the next six months fell nearly 2 points to 73, while present conditions increased from a …
NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers of tropical activity hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting …
by DesmondMilesDan BIS today came out with a new narrative. It’s the EMs that will suffer most from debt rollover. And then Bofa came up with a research piece that shows SPX500 debt maturing in manageable term but no Russell. Meaning if rate cuts do happen russell and EMs will benefit the most atleast in …
If you are a wife, did your mother never tell you that you NEVER use the word “divorce” to bluff? Or that you never threaten a man? These days that asking for a sandwich from your wife is considered abuse, I have no sympathy for this woman.
via MishTalk: The only time rent went negative year-over-year was in the Great Recession, even then, just barely. Yet, every month we see reports of falling rent and expectations that it soon will. Housing units completed from the Census Department, Rent from the BLS, chart by Mish I created the above chart today because people …
This fund manager is holding 60% cash — and expecting a stock-market crash Ruffer’s main claim to fame is to have successfully sidestepped the 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 market collapses Yikes. There’s bearish, there’s really bearish, and then there’s Ruffer & Co. I don’t want to spook everyone managing their own retirement portfolio. But the London-based …
We cannot live with a decade of more of the same. Britain is extremely vulnerable to any mishap – a crack in the housing market, a crisis in the financial markets, another energy crisis. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/13/uk-stop-kidding-ourselves-rich-nation-gone-bust
As we approach the beginning of Q2 bank earnings, analysts are bracing themselves for what is anticipated to be the most significant decline in earnings since the onset of the pandemic, with a staggering -7% expected. This pattern seems eerily familiar, as we witnessed a similar sequence of events back in 2018 when the Federal …