Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Two major markets, two VERY different conclusions and outlooks. The diverging views and prices revolve around what really happened in April. Was it a one-off overreaction to tariffs? Or was the deflation confirmation of more than just potential volatility? Both markets are doubling and tripling down on their separate views, each reaching record or near-record …
Kinda puts this into a different perspective now huh? Same thing with me talking about $UNF and $MAN. All kind of adds up. pic.twitter.com/PJuiYoEVOt — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) June 18, 2025 This chart is a clear warning shot to those still clinging to the idea of a “soft landing.” Every time the modeled Fed Funds …
Black Swan watch. #BOJ The Bank of Japan is caught between responding to their weak economy (stimulus ) or torching the yen carry trade to protect their currency by raising rates. pic.twitter.com/zuMWIKAsMb — Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) May 16, 2025 There’s more delinquent student loans in Q1 2025 than there were in Q1 2020 – last …
US Treasuries fail to attract demand – Lower confidence in U.S. economy signals alarm! h/t RobertBartus
NVIDIA is on the brink of a major reversal. The bearish divergence on the RSI highlights a severe loss of momentum, signaling exhaustion in the current uptrend. The price is poised to break down from the ascending channel, setting the stage for an epic crash. pic.twitter.com/Te5cZYp31s — The Macro Pulse (@TheMacroPulse) December 26, 2024
pic.twitter.com/WjideSJkeR — Victoria (@VictoriaViorela) October 16, 2024
This is the biggest breadth divergence at an all time high in history, going back to 2001 (available indicator data). pic.twitter.com/RGeMoKevuh — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 1, 2024 #US02Y – I can see a beautiful head and shoulder forming on the daily and weekly Can anybody tell me what happens to risk assets like #Crypto and …
The US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) has dropped 14.7% from its peak in this economic cycle. Historically, such a decline has only occurred during recessions over the past 65 years. The index considers data from the US labor market, manufacturing sector, building permits, S&P 500, and bonds. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), designed to …
via Tom McClellan The SP500 is up to a new all-time high, but the NYSE’s Advance-Decline (A-D) Line is not confirming that. This is a sign of trouble, because it means that the concentration of buying in certain big cap stocks which drive the major averages is not being confirmed by what the rest of …
With disconcerting parallels to the financial crisis of 2008, warning signals are intensifying. A stark divergence between large and mid caps, soaring borrowing costs for S&P 500 companies, a prolonged crude oil decline, and soaring hedge fund exposure all contribute to an uneasy market outlook. The historical correlation of the 10Y Minus 3M Treasury Yield …
"Impervious" Nasdaq Risks Big Downside If Mideast Conflict Spirals https://t.co/pZGX7DJyvn — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 19, 2023 Hedge Funds have increased their short stock exposure to the highest level of the year pic.twitter.com/IXb4OHLPA5 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 23, 2023
Anyone remember LTCM? We're facing 100 LTCMs at the same time. BOJ policy divergence from the rest of the world is a disaster waiting to happen. It doesn't matter whether they "tweak" policy next week. In global RISK OFF, the hot money always comes home. pic.twitter.com/Ydk6ApLQFR — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 21, 2023 Bulls, FYI. This …
Global Central Banks Set to Diverge on Rates as Stubborn Inflation Stalks Fed, ECB Quarterly outlook on what to expect from monetary policy A less synchronized picture is emerging for the world economy Stubborn inflation keeping US and European officials in tightening mode is likely to further decouple global monetary policy in coming months as …