Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
One weekend in 2006, Dean Devlin, a movie producer, was driving across Los Angeles to deal with an emergency. His new movie, Flyboys, had opened that weekend to reviews so bad that one of the stars had abruptly checked into the hospital. On his way to visit the actor, another potential crisis appeared on his …
via Macro_Untold Everyone talks about the “coming” crash, but if you look at the actual transaction logs from the last 6 months, the crash isn’t coming—it’s already here, and it’s being hidden by “Extend and Pretend” accounting. I’ve been digging into the specific numbers on the Blackstone 1740 Broadway default in NYC, and the math …
Judge Temporarily Blocks DOJ From Using Evidence Proving James Comey's Guilt https://t.co/C2n7k9aMkE — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 8, 2025 A federal judge has dealt a setback to Justice Department efforts to seek a new indictment against former FBI Director James Comey, temporarily barring prosecutors from using evidence they had relied on when they initially secured criminal …
EVERY matching piece for a crash like ’29 is now in place. by David Haggith One article for the headlines on Tuesday, since The Daily Doom doesn’t have holiday editions, asks if we are heading for a 1929-style stock market crash. If you’ve read me for long, you know I lean strongly that way. I think we …
Guests are about to run screaming from the summer party because the flaming gob of goo is back. While it’s lurking at the perimeter, they are all about to see it flame on. THAT should be interesting! by David Haggith How convenient: Just as a “top economist” for Moody’s says that GDP may not be …
It’s an inflation volcano getting ready to blow. After it does, the economy will collapse into a caldera of debt Trump helped create. Many signs of eruptive pressure are showing up on the surface now. by David Haggith This may be as close to his own Mt. Rushmore as the Great Orange ever gets. With …
by David Haggith Who weaponized the DoJ and the intelligence community at a level so deep we haven’t seen such revelations since President Nixon? President Trump received a gift box from Tulsi Gabbard that may help him keep a lid on the Epstein Files. President Trump needed a distraction after days of bashing his own …
by David Haggith And, yet, the picture gets worse still looking further forward, based on the labor-market conditions that are building as major trends so far. Just as I expected, the government’s report on jobs Thursday totally contradicted ADP’s Wednesday payroll data report. The stock market ignored the abysmal ADP report but then soared with …
by David Haggith When I say, “the bull market is strong,” I only mean the market for selling words that are complete “bull____” is strong. The stock analyst bull that goes in your ears about the economy is reeks strongly these days. The economic reality, itself, is weak. And, for that reason, the resurrected bull …
Shares of Accenture tumbled about 7.3% after the consulting firm said efforts to tighten federal spending are starting to weigh on its revenues. Accenture is among the first of the U.S. corporate giants to get hit by the Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency. “As you know, the new administration has a clear goal …
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada begin on February 1, or do they? Whether President Trump is merely posturing or not, the threat is real and the situation globally they would be starting from makes for a difficult mix. That’s why the dollar is rising, rates are falling, and real economy variables are already experiencing significant …
BY DAVID HAGGITH This is the second return of inflation since Covid. The first return of inflation came last year and into January through March of this year when inflation started rising again after about a year of declining. Since then, I’ve made a big point all summer of saying inflation would rise for a second time …
No matter how hard they try, even the most skeptical analysts can’t help but talk up gold’s price. With the current gold bull run well under way, we turn our attention to silver. How is silver’s price so out of step? When silver does catch up, just how far and how fast will prices surge? …
BY DAVID HAGGITH In other words, it’s a whole bunch of far-out stuff. It’s written a little more on the lighter side, or snider side, but there was just such a bunch of peculiar news that is now normal that I couldn’t let it all go by without comment. (Keep your sarcasm detector turned on.) …
BY DAVID HAGGITH The Fed has stated clearly now that it needs several more months before it will believe inflation is actually falling again, and this article explains clearly why that is. The two major factors that gave a tiny drop in CPI last week were oil and softening housing price increases, removing earlier pressure. …
BY DAVID HAGGITH Why we won’t see the next recession coming and why it may not be reported as a recession even if it is the worst recession since the Great Depression. (But YOU’LL certainly feel it in your bones!) The next recession has all the ingredients to become the worst since the Great Depression …
The Dallas Federal Reserve’s somber report reveals a slight contraction in the service sector in January. Retail, in particular, nosedives with the fastest sales drop since April ’20, casting a shadow on the overall health of the economy. The modest employment gains in non-retail services provide only marginal relief, painting a worrisome picture for the …