Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Argentine President Javier Milei said on Thursday evening that he will present a bill to Congress to punish with jail time any Central Bank official that issues money to the National Treasury to finance fiscal deficits. Milei, in an interview with the news channel Todo Noticias, said that the intention is to define the practice …
by confoundedinterest17 The great Will Rogers once said he never met a man he didn’t like. US President Joe Biden and Democrats have never met a spending opportunity they didn’t like (except for US border security, of course). Under “Deficit Joe” Biden, Federal budget deficits have soared! And deficits are projected to grow! Over the …
by confoundedinterest17 Constitution Avenue in Washington DC is actually becoming Tobacco Road. No, not the dysfunctional family of Georgia sharecroppers during the Great Depression, but the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC). On Monday, after we got the first part of the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), in which the Treasury unexpectedly announced a big drop in its borrowing …
It’s infuriating! The hard-earned savings of Americans are being decimated. Biden’s policies are a disaster! The average retirement account lost $33,200 in buying power — one quarter of its value — since Joe Biden took office. This could delay millions of Americans retirement by years — up to a decade according to one economist. What …
This comes exactly 2 months after Argentina's central bank raised rates to a record 133%. Argentina has averaged a 40% inflation rate per year over the last 10 years. Is this last ditch effort going to work? Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 12, 2023 …
by confoundedinterest17 We are on a Highway To Hell! Massive Federal Budget deficits and staggering payments to Treasury from The Fed (losses on balance sheet) and $212 TRILLION in unfunded promises to the non-elites. Under Modern Monetary Theory (or print money without consequences), we are seeing trillion dollars budget deficits with no end in sight. Nothing …
via moneymetals: Last week marked the 100 year anniversary of the end of the Weimar inflation in Germany. In last week’s newsletter I wrote about my base case for the next couple years, which is that we’re repeating the 1970’s stagflation under Jimmy Carter. This week I want to talk about one of the worst case scenarios, …
The alarming contraction in bank credit, an event occurring only once in the past 50 years, adds a foreboding dimension to the rapid depletion of the 2 trillion-dollar Reverse Repo pot. As Wall Street grapples with financing challenges for Washington’s deficits, the ominous trajectory raises concerns about the stability of the financial system. At this …
Higher deficits & unemployment, more govt borrowing, more money supply, more inflation… And the US wants to wage war in Ukraine & a Messianic one in the middle east? China sees the US Empire over-extended, & will soon heat-up the South China Sea…https://t.co/kSQOeRIsfH — St. Aubrun (@st_aubrun) November 2, 2023 FED'S POWELL: WE ARE NOT …
by confoundedinterest17 To paraphrase AC/DC, the US is back in red. Let’s start with personal savings as a percentage of disposable income. It has been in the red (meaning very low) under Billions Biden. And The Fed is really in the red under Biden’s inflation rattling spending with losses leading to a surge in remittances. And …
The cost of goods and services rose 0.4 percent for a second consecutive month in September, challenging the view that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are still bringing down inflation. The personal consumption expenditure price index was expected to cool slightly from the prior month. Over the past year, the index is up 3.4 percent. …
by confoundedinterest17 Joe Biden, who has always been a compulsive liar but at least sounded cognicent, is now babbling and whispering that Bidenomics works. But for who? Clearly not for first time homebuyers or people looking to move. Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate is up to almost 8%, the highest since July 2000 and Willy Slick …
Everyone’s waiting to discover the level at which yields spur financial instability. From @kitjuckes this morning: “For now, the FX market is a bystander, watching Treasuries and waiting for them to break something.” — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 3, 2023 via Bloomberg: The slide in Treasuries has been excessive given recent economic data and Federal …
The significant decline in the market value of Treasury notes, bonds, and mortgage-backed securities, which make up over 80% of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, could potentially reduce the Fed’s assets by about $1 trillion, surpassing the impact of their QT policy. This would essentially bring their balance sheet back to 2020 levels, indicating the …
via reason: As election season approaches, Democrats are touting the economic results of Biden administration policies aimed at improving the lives of working Americans and creating a more equitable economy. But ordinary Americans aren’t feeling the so-called success of “Bidenomics.” Superficially, the economy looks solid. As measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), it increased …
The big question is, who will buy our US Treasury debt in the coming years? When does the US economy break due to hire rates? 🔊… sound on Japan, China and Saudi Arabia are all selling. The Social Security and Medicare trust funds are all selling their US Treasury debt… https://t.co/d1ne3M2uWR — Wall Street Mav …
The Fed, Treasury, investors, China, Japan and Saudi are dumping US bonds at the same time pic.twitter.com/tE87Di9OiD — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) August 17, 2023
by confoundedinterest17 The US Fiscal position is very bad and the US is beginning to look like a third world economy. And with Biden and Democrat AGs filing indictments against Biden primary Presidential oppoonent, that country is Venezeula! Like skyrocketing interest on the Federal debt to pay for green energy hustlers and the Ukraine war. …
The US govt is dramatically increasing its planned amount of debt it issues in the next 12 months. 🚨 Monthly Auction Sizes +60% by August Next Year vs the previous year. The USA has to finance over $2 trillion in deficits, plus refinance all of the maturing debt at the new… pic.twitter.com/9HbpkN7USD — Wall …
“Back in 2017 when the Fed Balance sheet was $4.5 trillion … this was their forecast going forward, shrinking the balance sheet to $2 trillion by 2022. Instead we are at $8.3 trillion today. With the US govt running deficits over $2 trillion and a recession coming, we are going to $15 trillion to $20 …
by BoatSurfer600 The unprecedented pace of monetary tightening by the world’s largest central banks in the West has led to some unintended consequences globally. Countries that face the twin problems of “higher current account deficit” and “low foreign reserves” have seen their currencies tumble. Source: Sagar Singh linked in