Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The most interesting part of the article isn’t the $200 subscription potentially costing OpenAI thousands. It’s that agentic workflows can consume up to 1,000x more tokens than a normal prompt. A $200 ChatGPT subscription could cost OpenAI $14,000 if you actually used it to its full potential “Part of the pressure comes from how AI …
Bond guys positioning for recession while retail chases the narrative PIMCO admits credit loss cycle already rolling Lower quality borrowers leveraged junk private credit about to explode AI disruption smashing overindebted businesses Markets sitting there complacent like subprime never happened Schiff on Fox live screaming this beats 2008 picnic Guy who called the last crash …
Traffic to DuckDuckGo’s no AI search page has tripled following Google’s latest AI search rollout, with PC Gamer reporting weekly gains around 22%–28% and peaks near 30% on mobile People aren’t waiting to evaluate it They’re just switching away from AI-heavy search results as they show up Google is pushing AI summaries deeper into default …
Zero day exploit completely wrecks default Windows 11 BitLocker encryption. Attack bypasses TPM protection on locked drives using Windows Recovery Environment. Thieves with physical access now read your data without password or key. Microsoft silent patched related bugs before, researcher drops full code on GitHub. Default drive encryption on millions of PCs turns out to …
$UBS predicts private credit default rates to reach up to 15% in bear case (FT)https://t.co/r7MBvNICG5 — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) February 25, 2026 UBS warns of 15% default rates in private credit — Wall Street is starting to worry. (Bloomberg) — A few weeks ago, analysts at UBS Group AG laid out …
🚨 22,000 condos completing in the GTA this year. Up to 35% could default. One buyer just lost $130K when he couldn’t close. Prices down 25% from the peak. Banks won’t fund the gap. Builders can sue. This is how bubbles unwind. 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/xjwy18cjU0 — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) February 23, 2026 And yeah, losing $130K hurts, …
US student loan delinquencies are exploding: The number student loan borrowers that are severely delinquent is up to a record 3.62 million. The number of federal loan recipients 271+ days past due is now 8 TIMES higher than the pre-2020 average. This comes as the grace period… pic.twitter.com/kCliDUSadP — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 3, …
“Nearly 12 million federal student loan borrowers are behind on payments, according to new Education Department data. 5.5 million are in default, mostly from before the pandemic. Another 6 million are delinquent, with most over 270 days past due and headed toward default. An additional 6.7 million are in forbearance from Biden’s SAVE plan litigation. …
$SPY is in danger of forming a Head & Shoulders… A 675 rejection would form the right shoulder After that, a 654 break would give us maximum downside to 480s😬😬 pic.twitter.com/mrOgdFMA62 — ThiccTeddy (@ThiccTeddy) November 24, 2025 GROK: Based on current charts (as of Nov 24, 2025), SPY shows elements of a potential head and …
AI, Private Credit: Blue Owl Is the Sum of All Investor Fears [BBG.com] Blue Owl Capital Inc. is caught in a trifecta of market worries about private credit, artificial intelligence and the flightiness of wealthy individuals who’ve been the new growth hope for alternative managers in recent years. Its abortive effort to give investors an …
Fannie Mae is set to drop its 620 credit score minimum this month. On the surface level, this is huge, renters with good payment history, young people with thin files, anyone locked out by arbitrary score floors suddenly has a shot at conventional financing. Also, first time buyers are collapsing so Fannie Mae desperately needed …
SOFR rate is plunging which means liquidity is flush throughout the system. Ignore all of the other noise around $2000 stimmies and the end of the shutdown. This surge in liquidity alone will push equities and gold higher at least in the short term. https://t.co/tCTGfKPvLE — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 10, 2025 SOFR did drop …
via notayesmanseconomics: After looking at China a couple of days ago it is again time to look East to Nihon this time. We can start with the latest economic news. TOKYO — Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.0% in the April-to-June quarter from the previous three months, according to preliminary government figures released Friday, avoiding …
Marc Faber believes there is a very real possibility that the Trump administration will default on America’s debt obligations, and he thinks you would be insane to not be holding physical gold as the government continues to drive reckless spending and inflate the deficit. Marc dives into the Big Beautiful Bill and its implications for …
Cloudflare just flipped the switch on a new model for the internet. Starting July 1, 2025, every new domain using Cloudflare blocks AI crawlers by default. No scraping. No silent indexing. If an AI company wants access, it has to pay. That’s the core of Pay-Per-Crawl, a system now in private beta that lets websites …
Wow. Next step is they default. If they’re at 90 days delinquent the banks aren’t ever seeing a dime from any of them. https://t.co/YyMI0VLckv — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 8, 2025 Serious Credit Card Delinquencies (unpaid balances for at least 90 days) rose to 12.31% in the first quarter, the highest level in 14 years …
US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that’s this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system.
Today, the feds start collecting on 5 million+ defaulted student loan borrowers with collections. We have a 20.5% delinquency rate (90 days+) – highest ever recorded (TransUnion) Tax refunds will be seized through the Treasury Offset Program. Social Security benefits cut by up… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) May 5, 2025 More Than Half of Subprime …
This credit default swap is like an insurance against the risk of US Debt default, implying that the market is pricing in higher risk for the US government to default on its debt. h/t kmmeow1
Student loan defaults just skyrocketed to 15.6%, the highest level on record. As a result, the NY Fed is reporting that credit scores of student borrowers are about to plunge. Potentially by as much as 150 points.
by Martin Armstrong You have to wonder why we have the most incompetent people in government, perhaps in history. While there is not a single leader in Europe who I would even want to have a drink with or shake hands, we see the same on the LEFT in the United States. No matter how …
Is that the heady scent of hubris, wafting through the winter air of Washington, D.C.? So bold has President Trump been in the first month of his second term that nervous Europeans wonder if the American republic is now unabashedly an empire. Trump renames seas. He reclaims canals. He demands Greenland. He trolls Canada. His …
The US government is currently stopping over 1,000,000 defaulted mortgages from going to foreclosure under the FHA mortgage program. The result is another Subprime Housing Bubble, one that could cause huge declines in home prices around the US if it’s allowed to burst.
The US government is currently stopping over 1,000,000 defaulted mortgages from going to foreclosure under the FHA mortgage program. The result is another Subprime Housing Bubble, one that could cause huge declines in home prices around the US if it’s allowed to burst.
Junk-Loan Worry Market Commentary Dec. 26: A reason that the Fed will be cutting key interest rates is that U.S. companies are now defaulting on junk loans at the fastest rate in four years. Specifically, the default rate in the leveraged loan market, the bulk of which is in the U.S., rose to 7.2% in …
Struggling student loan borrowers can see if they qualify for a deferment or forbearance, experts say. If you’re out of work, you can request an unemployment deferment with your servicer. If you’re dealing with another financial challenge, meanwhile, you may be eligible for an economic hardship deferment. Those who qualify for a hardship deferment include …
🚨8 Retail Condo Units in the West Village Face Foreclosure – The units are at 122 Greenwich Avenue in the West Village…beautiful building – The 8 units were purchased in 2018 for $31mm – Purchase was financed with $20mm loan from Signature Bank – The loans were purchased… pic.twitter.com/cYP8ssJYsG — Shashankh Aryal (@aryal1994) August 17, …
If you’re one of the unlucky who gets laid off in this horrible economy, you may want to look into working for a debt collection agency because business is booming for them. According to one of my viewers who works for one, their business has tripled just this year and they’ve also had to double …
With gold and silver rallying while there’s been a selloff in the bond market, today Dr. Jim Willie checks in to share his view on what’s happening. Jim talks about how Japan is selling US treasuries, which has added to the pressure in the debt market. Meanwhile, the Fed continues walking an increasingly fine line …
IMO- Retail sales NUMBERS have held up due to total dollars, but that means buying less physical goods. NOW, cumulative inflation has pushed people into getting even less and adding more on their cards just to survive? — Scott Sheller (@ScottSheller) July 5, 2024 CAUTION: Housing defaults have just skyrocketed This is unlike anything we’ve …