Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
It is now one of the unspoken but immutable dictates on Wall Street: with each new banking crisis, the Federal Reserve will quickly create an emergency bailout program and give it a three to four letter abbreviation so that it vanishes into an alphabet soup blur of Fed bailout programs that preceded it. The latest …
"The hits just keep on comin'" – Casey Kasem This one today – in case you're told the initial rebound after a volatility spike is a good thing. Not so much when the market is still near divergent, overbullish, record highs. Not an investment strategy, not a forecast. Just FYI. pic.twitter.com/e0q21AkQxg — John P. Hussman, …
2/ The yield curve has now been inverted for the longest period since 1929 This signal has accurately predicted every economic downturn And also reflects the condition of the labor market pic.twitter.com/TBSFZxciOG — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 24, 2024 4/ Conversely, after yield curve inversions the curve steepens This usually suggests a weakening labor market …
Had an intro call this week with one of the top 10 CLO Managers in this list (not Arbor). Despite their data looking pretty clean, they mentioned there will be a lot deals coming to a fork in the road in the next 6 months. I keep saying this over and over, but the delinquency,… …
BY DAVID HAGGITH The Fed has stated clearly now that it needs several more months before it will believe inflation is actually falling again, and this article explains clearly why that is. The two major factors that gave a tiny drop in CPI last week were oil and softening housing price increases, removing earlier pressure. …
BY DAVID HAGGITH Why we won’t see the next recession coming and why it may not be reported as a recession even if it is the worst recession since the Great Depression. (But YOU’LL certainly feel it in your bones!) The next recession has all the ingredients to become the worst since the Great Depression …
The global economic landscape is sounding alarm bells. 🌍 World manufacturing PMIs GDP weighted 47.6 Deeper in #recession territory! Chart: @PkZweifel pic.twitter.com/SycowQ6W06 — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) November 8, 2023
by Aegidius25 The figures released recently regarding the US employment situation were pretty rosey, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report signaling a gain of 339,000 jobs for May, but how does this compare with another less well known but perhaps more reliable government statistics that try and tell us something about the labor …
