Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The Iranian rial has lost nearly 90% of its value since 2018. Economic desperation is a core driver behind Tehran’s aggressive missile diplomacy. Officials are conditioning any ceasefire on the release of frozen foreign assets. Nuclear site inspections remain at a standstill due to lack of access. Internal protests are suppressed but the economic reality …
If this keeps going, Europe drifts closer to China out of necessity, not choice. Trump Isolation Deepens on World Stage as Allies Rebuff, Condemn The war in Iran and President Donald Trump’s rhetoric have driven US alliances with Europe near the breaking point. (Bloomberg) — The war in Iran and President Donald Trump’s rhetoric have …
Suppliers of parts for Nvidia’s H200 have paused production after Chinese Customs officials blocked shipments of the newly approved artificial intelligence processors from entering China, the Financial Times reported on Jan 16. Reuters could not immediately verify the report, which cited two people with knowledge of the matter. Nvidia did not immediately respond to a …
🚨 BREAKING! 🇨🇳 China's August Economic Data MISSES Across the Board: 📉 Retail Sales YoY 3.4% (est. 3.9%, prev. 3.7%)📉 Industrial Production YoY 5.2% (est. 5.7%, prev. 5.7%)📈 Unemployment Rate 5.3% (est. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%)Jan-Aug 📉 Fixed Asset Investment YoY 0.5% (est.… pic.twitter.com/totPuytZVq — MacroMicro (@MacroMicroMe) September 15, 2025 China’s economic slowdown deepened in August …
GB News star Miriam Cates sits down with data scientist and demographer Stephen J Shaw to examine why birth rates are falling, what the figures reveal about women having fewer children, and how shifting societal norms could influence the next generation’s views on family and parenthood.
In 2008 and again in 2020, similar steep drops in credit were quickly followed by aggressive Fed rate cuts and liquidity injections. This time, we’re seeing the same kind of credit contraction, but the Fed is still holding rates high, and there’s no sign of emergency fiscal support coming either. That’s what makes the current …
Ghislaine Maxwell, currently serving 20 years for sex trafficking, is reportedly willing to testify before Congress. Her legal team is pushing for immunity. Alan Dershowitz, Epstein’s former lawyer, called her the “Rosetta Stone” of the case. The Department of Justice and FBI say there’s no client list. But insiders claim she’s documenting everything. The Trump …
BREAKING: The US Treasury posted a $316 billion budget deficit in May, the third-largest on record. This comes as total government outlays rose 3% from YoY, to $687 billion, per ZeroHedge. And, while tariff revenue surged 270% YoY, to a record $23 billion, it barely made a dent in the deficit. In the first 8 …
Speculation is swirling after recent photos of Trump surfaced, showing unusual creases and bulges in his pant legs. The images, taken during a UFC event and a White House appearance, have fueled theories about leg braces, a catheter, or another medical device. Observers noticed hard lines running down both legs, prompting questions about whether Trump …
19 states have signed onto the @COSProject which calls for a Convention of States. pic.twitter.com/naZreX58Xf — DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) June 6, 2025 The movement for a Convention of States is gaining momentum. Nineteen states have officially signed onto the COS Project, calling for an Article V convention to rein in federal overreach and impose …
Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb. The cracks in global bond markets just turned into fractures. Japan’s 20-year government bond (JGB) auction was the worst since 1987. Bid-to-cover ratios collapsed. Yields on the 30-year spiked to 3.12%, and the 40-year hit an all-time… https://t.co/e2Aa7r63dz pic.twitter.com/9Yxww5ehA2 — EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) May 20, 2025 …
Total household debt just hit a record $18.2T, up $167B in Q1. This isn’t prosperity. It’s survival—fueled by credit. Households aren’t thriving. They’re borrowing just to stay afloat. pic.twitter.com/jvqIHKvews — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) May 14, 2025 Total household debt increased by $167 billion in Q1 2025, to $18.20 trillion pic.twitter.com/FQSWotqNKD — Amanda Goodall …
Something strange is happening with FHA loans, but you wouldn’t know it if you relied on mainstream media to keep you informed. The Wall Street Journal gave it a brief mention, and then—silence. No follow-ups. No investigations. No outrage. Why? Because exposing a financial disaster tied to government-backed loans doesn’t fit their narrative. But make …
China’s population drops by 1.39 million—continuing a troubling trend for the economy. h/t IAmNotAnEconomist
The extent to which demand for existing homes has collapsed and remains collapsed is astounding, but ultimately not surprising: Demand plunged in 2022 when mortgage rates soared, and plunged a lot further in 2023 as mortgage rates continued to rise to almost 8% by October 2023. But then as mortgage rates dropped starting in November, …
The real issue is oil prices in Yen, not just the Yen itself. The situation is far from over. — Ashok Mishra ⭐ 🇮🇳 (@ashok0220) August 26, 2024
The clock is ticking, problems may deepen Why do small banks have such big problems? Many Chinese cities and even entire regions are drowning in debt. The liabilities were so high that local government representatives sent envoys to Beijing in the spring. They are negotiating terms for repaying billions in loans. Unpaid debts are increasingly …
Institutions like the IMF keep wading into countries' debt problems by getting them into more debt. There are hardly any countries that went from "developing" to "developed" status over the past five decades. The global monetary system is structured to keep countries dependent. pic.twitter.com/kcmMV825NL — Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) June 15, 2024 Oof. pic.twitter.com/kpbc9BKHQJ — Lyn …
Banking sector is 🚮 — Sam Smith (@Sam65488) May 29, 2024 It appears that the banking sector is facing significant turmoil, with Bank OZK’s substantial loan exposure of $915 million, particularly concerning. The potential default on $135 million allocated for ‘Echo Street West’ in Atlanta underscores broader fears about the sector’s leverage levels. This news …
1) Austin's housing market is a cautionary tale about what can happen in "boomtowns". Everyone moves in. The prices surge. Builders start pulling too many permits. And then, sooner than you know, the market flips. And inventory gets dumped onto the market as demand and prices… — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 24, 2024 2) You …
China's Real Estate Collapse At the heart of the decline in family wealth is China's real estate meltdown, which is having a pervasive effect on a society where 70% of family assets are tied up in property. Towards the end of last year, 34 of the top 50 Chinese property… pic.twitter.com/owUbTR8RjW — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) …
China is grappling with an enormous debt crisis. Many cities and even whole regions are overwhelmed by financial obligations, pushing local government officials to negotiate debt repayment terms with Beijing. The mounting unpaid debts are putting local economies under strain, potentially stifling national economic growth. The “Financial Times” attributes the overwhelming debts of Chinese cities …
Protesting Polish farmers dumped grain out of a freight train during nationwide protests that have taken on an anti-Ukrainian character. The farmers, who say that cheap agricultural goods have undermined their business, want to stop the import of Ukrainian grain and to extend the ban to other goods including fruit, eggs and meat Polish farmers …
This video dives into the heart of the Hong Kong crisis as China’s stocks hit record lows, wiping out $6 trillion. It uncovers the complex factors, from a selloff in stocks to real estate woes, triggering a market chaos. Discover the human stories behind the numbers, with families, businesses, and a city grappling with economic …
h/t Daniel Kral Germany, the powerhouse of Europe, is grappling with a concerning economic downturn as its industrial sector continues to face challenges. In November, German industrial production experienced an unexpected decline of -0.8%, contrary to the anticipated +0.2% rise, according to data from the federal statistics office. This marks the sixth consecutive monthly drop, …
Japan grapples with a pivotal moment as its key inflation measure shows the first acceleration in four months, hinting at potential inflationary pressures. Simultaneously, the nation faces a persistent downturn in factory activity, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction, intensifying speculation about the Bank of Japan’s imminent pivot away from NIRP (Negative Interest Rate …
DC Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Dupont Circle Office Building Sells at 77% Discount, Plunging $72M from 2016 Price. The $21M transaction is over $50M less than 2019, with the previous owner, a co-working company, defaulting on a $65M loan. Amidst reports of owners surrendering keys to lenders, the city is in the early stages …
Deutsche Bank’s anticipated $350 million loss on a New York City office building signals a deepening crisis in the commercial real estate market. With the property’s value plummeting and significant vacancies, the situation reflects broader challenges in the sector, as other distressed buildings in Manhattan may face similar struggles. The New York commercial real estate …
After a bloody October 7 raid by Hamas fighters triggered Israel’s relentless bombardment of Gaza, Erdogan initially sought to position Turkey as a mediator. But this apparent ambition evaporated last month after the Turkish leader portrayed Hamas not as a terrorist group but as “liberators” or “mujahideen” fighting for their land. Turkey is technically a …
