Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Last time was 2007-08. Recession or worse is all but certain. Bank Credit is contracting for only the 2nd time in history. The other time was during the Global Financial Crisis. pic.twitter.com/nQhX7AOgA7 — Barchart (@Barchart) October 16, 2023 The Fed is playing with fire here Monetary policy is the tightest its been in 4 decades …
The sharp increase in credit card losses, coupled with the rise in evictions and loan delinquencies, paints a bleak picture for the economy, reminiscent of the challenging times during the Great Financial Crisis. Food Prices up Over 20%, Credit Card Delinquencies Now Higher As Credit Card Debt Grows on Inflation Despite Paul Krugman’s assurance that …
Searches for "Can't pay credit card" hitting all time highs pic.twitter.com/s7hkSebIq2 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 15, 2023 Credit card spending is finally starting to collapse… pic.twitter.com/XaMDwzyEIc — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 16, 2023 Parallels of 2018 keep flashing red. Back then US retail spending collapsed in November and December causing a #recession scare. Chart …
via moneywise: It’s not just low-income Americans drowning under inflation and interest rates — some higher-income folks are feeling the strain on their wallets as well. Data from a June survey conducted by personal finance software company Quicken revealed that 32% of Americans earning at least $150,000 a year are currently living paycheck to paycheck, …
If these problems in major economies collide, it could spell global financial disaster soon, and it feels like we need some urgent solutions, but we’re not getting them. On top of that, the recent Treasury bond auction didn’t go so well, which adds to worries about the U.S. debt piling up and how Wall Street …
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1712426706743542265 US corporate bond spreads widen as hopes dim for soft landing Oct 4 (Reuters) – U.S. corporate bond spreads widened on Tuesday and are expected to widen further after the latest jobs data helped confirm many investors’ expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates and an upcoming economic downturn. High-grade bond spreads jumped two basis …
The situation is getting serious as banks are experiencing one of the sharpest declines in lending activity ever recorded. This means they’re not lending money as readily as before. At this rate, we might be heading towards a “credit event,” which essentially means a big problem in the world of credit and lending. Moreover, banks …
Obtaining credit will be “much harder” pic.twitter.com/Pd2gXm5mn3 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 11, 2023 Rapid rate hikes have helped fuel an increase in company failures this year—and there’s probably more pain to come. Bed Bath & Beyond is one of the more well-known brands to implode this year under the weight of, among other …
https://twitter.com/TheMattOMalley/status/1711080047744803113 https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1710011432572526844 🚨 What Bankers Are Saying About Another Possible Crisis It's all planned… https://t.co/NJ3EDVGJ0h pic.twitter.com/uvKvhyTIRO — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 6, 2023 BREAKING: U.S. Banks U.S. Bank losses on held-to-maturity assets have soared to an ALL-TIME HIGH of $400 Billion 👀 pic.twitter.com/NE16Uccu0b — Barchart (@Barchart) October 6, 2023
Warning: Bank credit is offically contracting This has only happened during the Financial Crisis Buckle up pic.twitter.com/QpF0evOdNs — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 4, 2023 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1709918710310338758 U.S. Mortgage Rates surpassed 8% this week for the first time in more than 23 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/hha6FTuwsB — Barchart (@Barchart) October 5, 2023 *via Reuters – US economic activity …
by confoundedinterest17 The US is experencing a slow down. The massive Federal government and Federal Reserve Covid stimulus has worn out and we are left with a sagging jobs report and soaring credit card delinquencies. After ADP’s reports printed almost perfectly in line with BLS last month (+177k vs +187k), all eyes are on today’s print, …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RTLHpVwzmI If you’re worried about your finances, you’re far from alone. U.S. banks are warning that a credit crisis worse than 2008 is on the horizon, and it is coming at the worst possible time for American families. Credit card issuers are about to tighten lending standards even further, making it more difficult for consumers …
BREAKING Teachers Federal Credit Union announcing new tightening on Auto loans. ~$9B credit union, major player in NY / NJ regions. Credit is getting tougher and tougher. pic.twitter.com/hTMdpDzFHL — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) September 29, 2023 Nearly 1,500 small businesses filed for Subchapter V bankruptcy this year through Sept. 28, nearly as many as in …
With the median mortgage payment exceeding the cost of rent by $1,000 per month and average new car payments and used car loan interest rates reaching new highs, households are feeling the strain of increasing expenses. The milestone of $1 trillion in credit card debt, coupled with record-high interest rates of 25%, underscores the growing …
via geofinancialnews: Declining credit quality metrics in Commercial real estate lending pushed several banks to reduce their exposures to the sector by offloading loans related to the asset class, particularly office loans, in the second quarter. US banks’ commercial real estate loan portfolios showed signs of increasing stress During the second quarter, the net charge-off …
Indeed!! pic.twitter.com/xRpdyCblIs — Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) September 27, 2023 We can see how weak small caps have been during this Fed tightening cycle. The chart shows absolute performance. Only 1972 was worse — another cycle, like now, in which the Nifty Fifty dominated. /2 — Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) September 28, 2023 Oil up USD …
The shorts were short-lived. The Senate on Wednesday unanimously passed a bill that requires members to follow a dress code that will include a coat, tie, and slacks for men, ending controversy triggered over Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman displaying his casual style on the floor. “Though we’ve never had an official dress code, the events …
The 10-year note yield is skyrocketing and now at 4.63%, its highest since June 2007. Since last week’s Fed meeting, the 10-year note yield is up 35 basis points. Since the last Fed rate hike in July, the 10-year note yield is up 60 basis points. Interest rates on just about… pic.twitter.com/7bsPQk30ma — The Kobeissi …
“Bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $10 million in liabilities are rising sharply. Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, bankruptcy filings have more than doubled. Corporations, individuals, and the government all got used to historically low interest rates. As rates have nearly tripled on most forms of debt, bankruptcy filings are …
Credit card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis Goldman Sachs predicts credit card losses will continue to climb through the end of 2024/early 2025. What is unusual is that the losses are accelerating outside of an economic downturn, the firm said. Credit card losses currently stand at 3.63%, up …
The current economic landscape raises concerns about the potential for significant wealth destruction when Housing Bubble 2.0, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s policies, eventually implodes. Housing Bubble 2.0: Recent data indicates that the implosion of Housing Bubble 2.0 is gaining momentum, with U.S. housing starts falling by a substantial 11.3%. This decline underscores the vulnerability …
The financial landscape is showing signs of entering the second phase of the credit cycle, where financial institutions suddenly face the realization of credit losses. This is causing notable instability and liquidity challenges within the banking system. Simultaneously, many companies are struggling to meet their debt obligations. August was a particularly troublesome month, witnessing the …
A credit crisis is already in motion in 2023, and it is threatening to collapse the standard of living of many American families as loan conditions get tighter while the cost of living continues to climb. Access to credit is about to become an enormous issue for U.S. consumers. Today, we’re carrying far more debt …
via YAHOO: Senator Josh Hawley has introduced new legislation that would cap credit card interest rates at 18% in a move he hopes is “fair, common-sense, and gives the working class a chance.” The “Capping Credit Card Interest Rates Act” — introduced by Hawley on Sept. 12 — comes shortly after U.S. consumer credit card …
American households now have an average of $10,170 credit card debt, as record numbers say they are worried about being cut off from access to loans. Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows nationwide credit card debt swelled by $43 billion in the second quarter of the year – the second largest increase on …
https://twitter.com/usapoliticsguy1/status/1701673756085870986
by confoundedinterest17 Danger Will Robinson! Danger! Median sales price of homes in the US sank by -7.4% in Q2 2023. This is particulary dangerous since it was the worst correction in home prices since two rather nasty recessions of 1970 and 2008 (The Great Recession and financial crisis). This correction occured as M2 Money growth (green …
Makes sense, with the acceleration in credit card defaults hitting levels higher than even the 2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/AA0i4w9S97 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 12, 2023 BREAKING: Delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, per Apollo Group. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 12, 2023 The crashing office market will …
by confoundedinterest17 I ain’t never been to Spain, but the US under Biden is like Spain in terms of default risk. Actually, I have to Spain numerous times and love visiting Barcelona. But the US debt fiasco under Biden and Congressional spending sprees has led to … US credit default swap being priced worse than Spain’s …
Despite credit rejections rising, debt levels are skyrocketing. Total US household debt just hit a record $17.1 trillion and is expected to rise again this quarter. People are using debt to "fight" inflation. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 11, 2023 At a time when …