Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
WE HAVE BREAKING NEWS IN WALTON COUNTY. THAT’S THE SCENE OF A HELICOPTER CRASH. LET’S SHOW LIVE PICTURES FROM SKY FOX FIVE. THIS IS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MOUNT PARAN CHURCH ROAD AND BROWN HILL CHURCH ROAD NEAR MONROE. AS YOU CAN SEE, FIREFIGHTERS ARE ON THE SCENE. IT’S CLEAR THE HELICOPTER BURNED AFTER IMPACT. …
Dow Theory Crash Indicator: Every single major crash over the last 100 years had the exact same setup: DJIA hit a new high, but the transports failed to do the same (1929, 1937, 1966-1975, 1987, 2000, 2007, 2020). And when transports fail to confirm the DJIA high, the wheels come off the equity bus and …
Housing is the foundation of the economy, and when it starts tipping downward, jobs, banks, and local economies feel it immediately. Hidden delinquencies in mortgages and corporate loans mean that a correction could hit like a hidden avalanche, catching lenders, investors, and homeowners off guard. This is a warning that the financial system may already …
The collapse isn’t whispered. It’s marching through neighborhoods, through MLS listings, through every open house where the buyers hesitate, the agents hedge, and the price tags crumble under scrutiny. The illusion of stability has evaporated while 56% of homes now sell below asking, exposing a market that once promised security and now delivers panic and …
Inside you’ll see: • The valuation dashboard (Buffett Indicator, Tobin’s Q, CAPE, P/B) and why “long-term averages” may be misleading when you add an extra century of data. • How index concentration, mega-cap cash-flow multiples, and extreme P/Es mirror late-stage bubbles. • Classic warning lights: Dow Transports diverging, insiders dumping, and a yield-curve signal with …
The dotcom crash was a tremor. Bitcoin is the earthquake. The bubble of 2000 swallowed fortunes, but what’s happening now will devour whole economies. The old collapse wiped out portfolios. This collapse threatens to hollow out belief itself. Every signal points to a reckoning bigger, darker, and more permanent. The numbers on the chart are …
Facepalm: Most people are familiar with the frustration of sitting through a lengthy conference call only to reach a disappointing outcome. A US Air Force F-35 pilot must have been particularly upset after his 50-minute airborne call with Lockheed Martin engineers did little to prevent the plane plunging to the ground soon afterward. Thankfully for …
by Michael Home prices are falling all over the nation. Should we be cheering or should we be concerned? In this article, I am going to discuss two distinct scenarios. In one scenario, lower housing prices could be a really good thing for our economy. But if another scenario plays out, we could potentially be looking …
Contrarian investor and Cornell professor Dave Collum delivers one of his starkest warnings yet: the “everything bubble” has left markets more fragile than at any point in modern history, and the Fed can’t save us this time. In this explosive interview with James Connor, Collum explains why he believes the S&P 500 could face a …
While the media stays silent, a critical event recently unfolded: BTC mining has become so centralized that, for only the second time in history (last time was in 2014, before mega-crash), the network is vulnerable to a 51% attack. Two mining pools now control the majority of the network. Highly centralized. Highly dangerous. Meanwhile, whales …
A school bus transporting a Pennsylvania school football team was involved in a horrific crash that left more than 20 people injured. The Aliquippa Jr. High School Football Team was on the bus when it crashed on Saturday morning, KDKA-TV reported. The team left the area around 11 a.m., and each player is being evaluated, …
Working Americans have been in depression since 2008. They bailed out the establishment by stealing YOUR quality of life. It doesn't just "feel" worse, it IS worse. pic.twitter.com/oWLyAme7Nv — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 23, 2025 Insane chart: Boomers for the win. Sickening https://t.co/8Ldcixm4OL — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 24, 2025 What bubble? 😳 pic.twitter.com/f3Lmfvz5t0 — …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, What’s the impact on rent? Housing units under construction data from Census Department, chart by Mish. Decline from Post-Covid Peak Total Units: 20.7 percent Single-Family: 25.2 percent Multi-Family: 27.3 percent The decline puts the number of single-family units under construction near the middle of a very wide range of …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak Friday at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. Evercore ISI warns that even a ‘balanced’ tone could trigger a -7% to -15% pullback into October. Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s 2000 meeting is infamous for popping the dot-com bubble. One cautious rate hike and a hint of tightening …
“It’s a retail darling… I like Alex Karp, I like his politics, I like him as a person… But even if Palantir was the greatest company ever created and you slapped the highest possible multiple on it, the stock is still trading above that. It has gotten absurd.” https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/25/08/47107749/gamestop-short-seller-andrew-left-is-taking-on-retail-investors-again-now-says-palantir-stock-is-beyond-overvalued “You cannot be a big data …
If 2008 was a house fire, crypto derivatives are a fireworks factory next to a gas station. “Derivatives are driving the growth and sophistication of investment in cryptocurrency markets… now account for the majority of daily volume, outpacing spot trading in size and impact… In 2025 alone, global annual derivative volumes are approaching an estimated …
Over 40% of the S&P 500 is now concentrated in just 10 companies, a dangerous setup that we’ve only seen before the Great Depression. This is how market euphoria ends, not with a warning, but with a sudden, brutal crash that takes everyone by surprise. “Today, the ten largest companies in the S&P 500 comprise …
Mortgage rates are falling. Home price growth is slowing. But the market is not recovering. It is unraveling. “The median U.S. asking price rose just 2.3% year over year… one of the smallest increases in two years.” https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-fall-price-growth-slow/ “Zillow anticipates a nationwide housing correction of 1.0% over the next 12 months… these 20 cities will …
China’s real estate crash spirals: Builders fail, buyers flee, cities hollow out. Turns out concrete isn’t a liquid asset after all. “New home prices in 70 major cities fell for a 24th straight month in May, extending the longest losing streak since at least 2011” https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-home-prices-dip-may-extending-two-year-stagnation-2025-06-16 “The amount of unsold residential floor space stood at …
Blue states are now offering sanctuary to threatened legislators from red states—an unprecedented scene in U.S. politics this year. “Texas Democrats are leaving the state in an attempt to prevent the state House from holding a vote Monday on new congressional maps,” the AP reported. https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/texas-democrats-flee-state-to-block-gop-redistricting-vote-amid-threats-of-arrest-republican-seats This marks the second such walkout since 2021, as …
You can beat earnings. You can post record margins. But if your stock trades at 90 times forward revenue, none of that matters unless you rewrite physics. Palantir’s Q2 2025 earnings are set to land between $934 million and $938 million. That’s up 38% YoY. Operating income clocks in at $403 million, with adjusted margins …
Carl Rickertsen, director at MicroStrategy, sold every share of $MSTR stock last month, cashing out over $10 million. The move signals a warning about Bitcoin’s fragile rally. “Carl Rickertsen completed liquidation of his entire MicroStrategy stock holdings in July 2025.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-director-cashes-10m-211902260.html MicroStrategy’s stock is closely linked to Bitcoin, which is vulnerable to tech market swings. …
Housing is more broken than most admit. Cutting rates won’t fix it. Prices remain too high and wages too low to afford a home. Inventory shortages in key regions make matters worse. First-time buyers are pushing 40 years old on average. That shows how the market locks out younger generations. Albert Edwards, known for predicting …
In 2008 and again in 2020, similar steep drops in credit were quickly followed by aggressive Fed rate cuts and liquidity injections. This time, we’re seeing the same kind of credit contraction, but the Fed is still holding rates high, and there’s no sign of emergency fiscal support coming either. That’s what makes the current …
Tesla’s Q2 2025 safety report shows cars using Full Self-Driving crashed once every 6.69 million miles, vastly outperforming human drivers who crash every 702,000 miles on average. Autopilot users still do better than non-Autopilot at one crash per 963,000 miles. Elon’s safety boast isn’t hype. Driverless Robotaxis are quietly proving it on Austin streets. FSD …
Where there's smoke, there's fire. pic.twitter.com/Z0pR2xNLid — The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 19, 2025
BREAKING: The 18-year-old arrested for hitting 2 Connecticut State Troopers, both now hospitalized—is Joel Alexander Caica Nishve an illegal alien from Ecuador who was released into the U.S. under the Biden administration in 2023. The Democrat Party has zero credibility on ICE. pic.twitter.com/yVQ8F2UMIP — Dapper Detective (@Dapper_Det) July 16, 2025
Sales crash 12% as condo market sees 80% more sellers than buyers. BREAKING: The median US condo sale price declined -2.2% YoY in May, to $354,100, marking the second-largest decrease since at least 2012. The only time condo prices dropped by a larger amount was in April 2023, by -2.9%. Meanwhile, condo sales plunged -11.9% …
Real Estate Crash expected to be worse than 2025! Home prices will drop by 60% or more, says Economist, Harry Dent! We are on the verge of the biggest housing market collapse in modern history.
Market runs on manufactured momentum and ticking clock… $VIX puts are being bought just before $SPY ramps like what's shown below to suppress vol further and cause an automatic rise in equity prices. This also happened yesterday and Monday. They didn't need to do this last week as the momentum trade was on its own. …