Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The US government and Federal Reserve inflated cost of living so high that Americans stopped having kids. To avoid running out of slaves, the government didn't make the slaves lives better, they began importing them from other slave camps. — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) December 16, 2024 The Fed has no possible excuse to cut rates …
🚨NATO WARNS BUSINESSES: PREPARE FOR 'WARTIME SCENARIO' Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of NATO’s Military Committee, urged businesses to adjust production and distribution to withstand disruptions from global adversaries like Russia and China. Speaking in Brussels, Bauer emphasized… pic.twitter.com/Pu5fyAwsBt — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 25, 2024 #WW3 ALERT – #NATO Preemptive Strike Against #Russia Should Be …
by confoundedinterest17 To quote Freddie King, the US is going down. Longer-term inflation jumped to their highest since June 2008, according to the latest UMich Sentiment survey, while short-term inflation expectations dropped to four year lows… Housing sentiment (buying conditions for housing) remains depressed under Biden/Harris “Reign of (economic) error.” Here is a picture depicting the …
Watch yields across the board carefully. 📈📊 About to explode. 💥🌋 pic.twitter.com/oWAjFEftn4 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 27, 2024 Sweet Jesus, Mother Mary of God. It's happening. pic.twitter.com/XzZEdMJyWR — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 27, 2024 Analysts assess contributors to the unusual 60 basis point rise in 10-year UST yields. With so much on …
by confoundedinterest17 The University of Michigan consumer survery is out and the results are startling. Under Biden/Harris, buying conditions are far worse than under Trump/Pence. In fact, buying conditions were extremely favorable (above 100) under Trump and dismal under Harris. Particularly for housing (where higher than normal mortgage rates and high housing prices made the …
We’re really in a ‘holding pattern’ is it comes to the labor market – the data continues to worsen while the market has pulled down its pants and continues to moon the labor market. Unemployment will need to rise further for impacts to be realized in markets. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) September 24, 2024 07 …
100% Banks are sitting on over $600B of unrealized losses — Vimos_crypto (@Vimos_crypto) September 17, 2024 "The global economy is past the cyclical peak as it decelerates from its above-trend momentum on a slew of weaker-than-expected economic data." – BofA Samadhiya pic.twitter.com/X9nbWAO8MV — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 17, 2024
by Mike Shedlock Let’s compare current Beige Book conditions to those at the beginning of the Great Recession. Beige Book January 2008 Let’s take a look at the Fed’s Beige Book Summary of Economic Conditions in the 12 Fed districts in January of 2008. The Great Recession had begun. Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest …
Strawberries are synonymous with the start of longer days and warmer weather, served up on tables as part of popular summer desserts. But scientists are warning this popular staple may be harder to come by soon because of warming global temperatures. What’s happening? A study from the University of Waterloo predicts that strawberry yields could …
WARNING: Labor market conditions index has been steadily declining This systematically happens prior to recessions pic.twitter.com/w3YYWHR566 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 26, 2024 US firms’ ‘low firing’ approach may turn to more layoffs, Fed’s Barkin tells BBG WASHINGTON, Aug 26 (Reuters) – The “low-hiring, low-firing” approach that U.S. businesses currently take to their employment decisions …
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls US Treasury yields fell by up to 5 basis points to 3.807% as investors anticipated larger Fed rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled readiness to cut inte… More here: https://t.co/AdIot28g1y pic.twitter.com/rGam65VO7z — TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) August 23, 2024 Powell: "the time has come" for the central bank …
by confoundedinterest17 Harris has released her “vision” for the US economy, but it is what you would expect. $25k subsidy for first-time homebuyers which will make housing even MORE expensive. According the University of Michigan consumer survey, buying conditions for housing has already plummeted to 21, the lowest in history. Cause? Already high housing prices …
BREAKING: Lumber prices have declined to their lowest level since the 2020 pandemic, down 80% in 2 years. Lumber is a leading indicator for the US housing market, global economic conditions, and inflation. The rapid drop in lumber prices suggests that the US residential… pic.twitter.com/Ksc6aqczI0 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 15, 2024 Housing Permits …
🚨HISTORIC DECLINE IN TRADING LIQUIDITY Bloomberg reports the two-week drop in the S&P liquidity index is the worst on record since 1996. “That’s pretty surprising given that conditions are nowhere near as bad as they were during the GFC or Covid” OUCH. — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 9, 2024 Wild chart… Equity Liquidity evaporated …
by confoundedinterest17 Cacklenomics strikes again! The University of Michigan consumer survey revealed that buying conditions for housing just hit an all-time low. High house prices and high mortgage rates aren’t helping. Purchase loan demand keeps dropping.
Screw that JOB! I would quit immediately! Shocking workplace conditions at Baltimore city facility where staff are forced to ask for toilet paper! Details of shocking conditions at Baltimore sanitation facilities have emerged after the city Inspector General released a report into the Department of Public Works. The report focused on complaints from nine facilities …
by confoundedinterest17 We’re going down! After May’s MoM deflationary impulse (thanks to a plunge in energy costs), June was expected to see a modest 0.1% rise (and we have seen energy prices starting to rise again). Sure enough, headline PPI printed HOT at +0.2% MoM (and May was revised higher), pushing the YoY print up …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Can a couple of hardworking people live well in America on $30,000 a year in earnings? Yes, if they’re willing to do what’s needed to make it happen. Is It possible to live well on $30,000 a year in America? Let’s start with the raw numbers. I am starting with …
US consumer confidence eased this month due to a more muted outlook for business conditions, the job market, and incomes. The Conference Board’s gauge of sentiment decreased to 100.4 from a downwardly revised 101.3 reading in May . Specifically, expectations for the next six months fell nearly 2 points to 73, while present conditions increased from a …
Homebuyer Conditions Index: The homebuyer conditions index has declined to an all-time low in June 2024, reaching 27 points. This index reflects consumer sentiment regarding homebuying conditions. Only 14% of consumers currently believe it’s a good time to buy a home, down from 20% last month1. Affordability concerns are a major factor contributing to this …
In US BLS numbers for Q3 (published end April) should have been the wake-up call, but everyone still asleep at the wheel. 190k jobs destroyed over Q3 (600 k creations were expected from nfp surveys). Talking about hard data… — Manu (@SolalM) June 11, 2024 Global labor market slowdown is underway UK Claimant claims largest …
https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/179485642045175428 Starting on Wednesday, and for the first time since the early 2000s, the Treasury Department will launch a series of buybacks targeting seasoned and harder-to-trade debt. Then in June, the US central bank is set to begin tapering the pace of its balance-sheet unwind, known as quantitative tightening, or QT. The Fed’s first-line inflation …
by confoundedinterest17 I saw former President Obama criticizing former President Trump for not passing “transformative” changes. That is, Trump didn’t sign any Obama-like transformative changes (like Obamacare). Truimp did try to slow down the damage done by Obama and his transformative agenda (e.g., open borders, wealth redistritution, green energy) that Biden has attempted to continue. …
Russia’s Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine if a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines can be agreed, Russian sources claim. Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin’s entourage, told Reuters the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he …
SHANGHAI, April 26 (Reuters) – China’s sliding yuan has been hitting the weak end of the band in so-called cash settlement transactions this week, making it challenging for banks and businesses on the mainland to transact, traders say. Under unrelenting pressure from rising U.S. yields and outflows from China, the yuan is at five-month lows …
With credit spreads on the rise and the 10-year TIP trading at 2.2%, financial conditions are tightening, sparking concerns among investors. While systematic funds tread cautiously amid thinning market depth, the next fortnight looms as a critical period. Contrary to expectations, inflationary fears drive Treasury yields up, leading to a plunge in stocks and a …
Unbelievable loose financial conditions in Europe! pic.twitter.com/2ZRYhY63Ov — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) April 9, 2024 Credit impulse in the euro area stabilizes, easing pressure to cut rates. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/OQcF42Bzk4 — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) April 9, 2024
A Queens neighborhood in New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s congressional district was likened by locals to a “third world” country with people selling goods on the sidewalks and prostitutes openly soliciting sex. The widely vibrant and diverse communities of Corona, Jackson Heights and Elmhurst in northwestern Queens appear to have descended into an open …
Ok, that's the week. Bulls, we'll see you next week. Bears, you should not have capitulated. pic.twitter.com/TFNG6fGZ3m — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) March 8, 2024 Key reversal of fortune. Highest down day volume since the 2022 bear market. pic.twitter.com/BZsVrtT7j3 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) March 9, 2024 The third bull trap. pic.twitter.com/G5n7daMKLy — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) March 8, 2024 …
While I didn’t see any snow when I lived in California, I was always hopeful to see a flurry or something aside from sea fog. By middle of next week — Feb 7, the weather pattern shifts to bring conditions that “could” drop snow at sea level. Where does the cold air in California come …