Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The Federal Reserve’s signal of fewer rate cuts in 2025 has reshaped investor expectations, prompting a reassessment of inflation risks and tightening financial conditions globally. As borrowing costs rise, central banks in other economies are adjusting policies to maintain stability. Simultaneously, the sharp increase in U.S. Treasury yields is influencing global fixed-income markets, as investors …
The trade deficit will find another level but the situation is actually worse once people step back and think about sht for more than a degenerate price tick. The underlying problem with this disorderly “Flood the Zone” manner in which the current ‘rebalancing’ of US trade is being conducted is that trade disruptions are happening …
by Michael Over the last several decades, the global economy has become more interconnected than ever, but now everything is changing. The flow of goods between the number one economic power on the planet and the number two economic power on the planet is absolutely imploding, and that is going to have enormous implications on …
BRITISH SOLDIERS ARE RESIGNING IN DROVES — THEY WILL NOT DIE FOR GLOBALISTS 🚨 🔴 Morale in the ranks is collapsing. Troops feel disrespected, used, and betrayed by Starmer’s government. Now they’re handing in their resignations — because they know what’s coming. 🗣️ “We won’t fight and die in Ukraine for Zelensky. This isn’t our …
Situation in China is getting bleaker. Many Chinese factory workers have not been paid in three to four months. Long before the tariffs! Many workers are returning home and the fear is even if and when Chinese Communist Party negotiates are fair trade deal with US factory workers may not return. Also, in late 2024 …
The Dollar is now down 69% vs gold… …just in the past 12 months alone When gold is screaming higher (>2.5% on the day, 8.8% in the past 2 weeks), it’s sending a huge warning Few seem to grasp the implications of this https://t.co/VZjvc2a03K pic.twitter.com/5Q92l3rBOM — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) April 16, 2025 h/t …
MICROSTRATEGY warns of forced Bitcoin sell BELOW cost to cover debt in market downturn! 🚨Saylor's Strategy may be forced to SELL Bitcoin! In a recent SEC 8-K filing, Strategy said a significant decline in Bitcoin's value might require them to sell at a loss to meet financial obligations. These include:🔻$8.22B in debt.🔻$35.1M in annual interest.🔻$146.2M …
BREAKING: Bill Ackman, a long-time Trump tariff supporter, accuses Commerce Secretary Lutnick of "profiting when the US economy implodes." He says picking Lutnick as Commerce Secretary is an "irreconcilable conflict of interest." Tariff backlash is heating up. pic.twitter.com/DdBoEjdECr — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 7, 2025 U.S. INVESTOR BILL ACKMAN ON X: 'THE PRESIDENT IS …
Household savings are declining sharply post-COVID stimulus. Further decline is forecast. h/t Infamous_Sympathy_91
New data from Redfin shows that housing inventory in Florida just hit the highest level on record going back to 2012. It’s likely that we’re now at the highest level of inventory back to 2008.
This Fed is completely detached from reality. Market weakness is already baked in. They’re driving blind! Average Hourly Work Week. Leading Indicator!!! Only time lower GFC! Powell said today the labor market showed no signs of weakness. FFR = 4.33% and Fed still doing QT!! r*=2.75% Powell’s Fed is living in an alternate universe. pic.twitter.com/28TVX2tnsv …
Bitcoin is in a bear market. The rest of Crypto is far worse. pic.twitter.com/PmvieYdhRY — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) February 26, 2025 #Bitcoin dropped below $85k after an important double-top at $100k amid strong outflows. The #cryptobros in the 2X levered $MSTU have paid the price. pic.twitter.com/JVSO1rRknG — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) February 27, 2025 Bitcoin is dying …
Chinese banks are the real story, even as China’s government (intentionally?) stole the spotlight with its AI-knock-off, a distraction from the latest real economy warning and most importantly the banking sector’s latest. The credit crisis in the latter may finally be coming to a head as it keeps the former from stabilizing.
This is a build to rent home on Fl gulf coast. Duplexes with no tenets pic.twitter.com/A7fnMtbbBY — KneelKashcarry (@Kneelkashcarry) January 22, 2025 SHOCKING: Home buying conditions have collapsed to levels NEVER seen in 65 years pic.twitter.com/KfcG97eqSS — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) January 23, 2025
The common prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as a response to an economic downturn due to high interest rates misses a significant global economic factor: the widespread collapse of major currencies, driven by governments’ heavy spending to fend off recessions. This scenario complicates the traditional narrative of monetary policy response. Around the …
A plunge in Chicago kicks off more concerns over the global car business. Layoffs and plant closures keep coming as automakers are having enormous difficulties first aligning their businesses with the lack of recovery. On top of that, more indications beside Chicago pour in showing falling cyclical demand for cars, too.
There’s more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil’s story isn’t strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming ‘speculators.’ If that’s the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry …
Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fiscal expansion. We’ll go over what that is, how it is different from QE, and what the real takeaway is. I see that China Stimulus …
With grocery prices at record highs, you might think that grocery chains are making loads of money right now. While some of them have strong business models and are doing well in this environment, several others have never recovered from the losses they faced during the pandemic or even earlier. In the past couple of …
It’s 2025 in 🇨🇦: Federal, provincial, and personal debt are at breaking points. Food bank lines hit record highs. Homeless encampments spread across cities. Housing is out of reach. Universities and hospitals are buckling. Collapse isn’t a question of if—it’s when. — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 1, 2024 This crazy chart is now updated to include …
First, let's look at the global picture. The contrast between regions tells a stark story: • Africa: 4.3 children per woman• Middle East: 2.8• USA: 1.7• EU average: 1.5 This EU average of 1.5 children per woman falls far below the 2.1 needed for population stability. pic.twitter.com/lG4IIZ2S8p — Ole Lehmann (@itsolelehmann) November 28, 2024 Even …
Some leftists are so spiteful over the outcome of the election that they’re planning to not spend any money once Trump is sworn in as president. Most people are expecting the economy to improve under Trump and these people don’t want that to happen, or at least don’t want Trump to get any credit for …
Incoming President Donald Trump could completely reform the rotten state of the American government. Yet it looks like he’s angling for more of the same by appointing some of the worst war hawks into positions of immense institutional power. Pete Hegseth’s nomination to Secretary of Defense does not bode well for anyone interested in ending …
Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but to markets position for longer recessionary period while facing #liquidity issues. Swap spreads falling to zero and strong bull steepening was last observed in 2008 #GFC. German interest rates set alarm bells ringing. Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but …
nope, i won't let the red wave narrative start with these numbers. foot on the gas, add nitrous, make it an embarrassing loss for her. everyone votes, no matter what. — Sack Head Shaun (@2againsttyranny) October 7, 2024 60 Minutes host tells Kamala ‘WE’RE DEALING WITH THE REAL WORLD HERE!!’ during grilling on one of …
– Flood Zones and Preparedness in the Southeast (0:00) – Emergency Response and Communication Challenges (2:23) – Longshoremen Strike and Global Energy Impact (4:44) – Food Rescue Operation Announcement (7:57) – Impact on Food Distribution and Storage (10:55) – Potential for Cannibalism and Further Crises (14:47) – Financial Survival and Gold Backed Currencies (19:14) – …
ChatGPT website visits are apparently collapsing, according to data from Similarweb, compiled by Goldman. Is this why they were considering that ridiculous $2,000/month subscription and desperately trying to raise funds before the LLM bubble bursts? I do think LLMs have… pic.twitter.com/m7HsJVme8Z — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) September 6, 2024 Bitcoin vs Nasdaq Update: My ultimate …
Back to the slowing of the economy. The speed in which inflation is collapsing is astounding. I think you’re going to see a dovish Powell on Friday. The market has been telling us this the past 6 trading days. The honeymoon of falling inflation won’t last long though. https://t.co/9R1GXzHMLe — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 21, …
