Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This isn’t a question of ‘paper hands.’ The O/N RRP is now fully drained – something we haven’t seen since it surged in 2021. Thus, unless the Fed abruptly abandons QT & reverts to QE, US liquidity is going to contract for the 1st time since 2022. And the last time that happened, @Bitcoin collapsed …
🇩🇪 German welfare state 'can no longer be financed' — Merz. — World of Statistics (@stats_feed) August 24, 2025 The German welfare state is no longer financially sustainable, Friedrich Merz said on Saturday. The chancellor argued for a fundamental reassessment of the benefits system as spending continues to soar past last year’s record of €47bn …
Good Morning from Germany, where Chancellor Friedrich Merz is looking for excuses after a rough start on economic policy.“This task is bigger than some may have imagined a year ago – and I say that self-critically,” Merz admitted in a speech on Saturday in Osnabrück. “We’re not… pic.twitter.com/Q3BcYBvYUC — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 24, 2025 …
Ending the confusion over gold tariffs steadied global markets – but the mounting national debt, inflation and a shaky dollar loom larger than ever. Could Trump’s interest in the gold standard hint at his plan to salvage the economy? By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories about precious metals …
Gallup’s 2025 Consumption Habits survey shows only 54% of US adults drank alcohol in the past year. That’s down from 62% in 2023 and 58% in 2024 — the lowest share Gallup has ever recorded. https://www.aol.com/us-alcohol-consumption-record-low-103851807.html A slim majority now see drinking as a health risk. 53% say moderate alcohol use is bad for you, …
If Zohran Mamdani wins New York City, it will happen fast. Betting markets put him at 80%. The wealthy are already planning to leave. This will not be slow change. It will be a jolt. https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1955004486285701246 Cops are already looking to leave. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says NYPD officers will head south, where they get …
The Soviets went nuts on money printing in the years before the collapse. pic.twitter.com/ccDFEykUlY — Balaji (@balajis) August 11, 2025 When government spends 100% of GDP you might call it the ultimate all-you-can-eat buffet. I’m not sure people realize government spending % of GDP is close to 50% And the trend is higher What do …
What happens to assets when AI eliminates half of the jobs? They stop performing. They deteriorate. Their value drops. “AI could eliminate up to 50 percent of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to between 10 and 20 percent in the next one to five years.” https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic Assets that rely on human hands—homes, cars, …
UPS just finished the full Covid rollercoaster. From pandemic lows to stimulus highs and then right back down. The stock has plunged 52% from its 2022 peak. It now trades at all-time lows compared to FedEx. The dividend is nearly 8 percent. That is not a bargain. It is a flashing red warning. UPS cut …
Sam Altman once admitted he keeps a “go bag” and has an agreement with Peter Thiel to flee to New Zealand if things collapse. “Altman said in 2016 the pair would lay low at one of Thiel’s properties in New Zealand.” https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12974609/What-know-Worlds-billionaires-building-bunkers-assembling-fortresses-outside-mansions.html Thiel’s bunker plans near Lake Wanaka were blocked by New Zealand’s local council. …
Americans are skipping car payments and the auto market collapse is accelerating fast. With $847 billion in unsold cars rotting on lots, 45% of dealerships are closing permanently. Auto loan delinquencies just hit 15-year highs as average car payments reach $750/month. The used car bubble has burst, leaving millions with underwater auto loans. Car prices …
The housing market is in deep trouble. pic.twitter.com/J1dgwFVuvk — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) July 29, 2025 💥The housing market is in a massive bubble, worse than 2006… inventory is piling up while affordability collapses… This signals a coming crash… Prices will fall hard, and it could trigger a broader economic downturn… TICK TOCK… pic.twitter.com/LO9ytqmy00 — Observing …
In 2008 and again in 2020, similar steep drops in credit were quickly followed by aggressive Fed rate cuts and liquidity injections. This time, we’re seeing the same kind of credit contraction, but the Fed is still holding rates high, and there’s no sign of emergency fiscal support coming either. That’s what makes the current …
“Europe’s not preparing for war—it’s preparing for collapse.” 🎯 “These elites [in France, Germany and the UK] aren’t gearing up for war with Russia because they care about freedom—they’re doing it because their grip on power is slipping, and fast.” “Their economies are breaking, the middle class is crushed, people can’t afford rent, food or …
Oregon’s Department of Land Conservation and Development finalized a rule package that rural counties are calling a death sentence. The Farm and Forest Modernization Rules take effect in January 2025. The state says it is about preserving farmland. On the ground, farmers say it is a chokehold. The rules hit agritourism first. Farm stands can …
“Japan’s passenger car export prices to the US declined by a cumulative 20% or so in April-June. This implies that, for the time being, the Japanese auto industry is absorbing more than half of the 25 pp additional tariff on passenger cars, thereby mitigating the rise in US selling prices. If this trend were to …
The current US administration cannot stop one of the best Biden’s trick to masquerade the health of the economy, why? Guess what’s going to happen to stock the moment NFP prints collapse https://t.co/arwdoBy3s6 — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) July 7, 2025
Is this the payback? The rate cuts aren’t working and that can only mean more of them. The best current examples are to north and south of the US where rolling over has taken on a new sense of urgency, especially since both are, at the margins, a proxy for American demand.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) was riding high near $620 earlier this year, touted as one of the strongest recession proof stocks you could own. Today it trades near $308, a drop that has shocked many investors and traders alike. The steep decline follows a series of earnings misses, weakening profit margins, and management turmoil that shook …
🇷🇺⚡Kiev is on fire. pic.twitter.com/cOSfREuhz8 — Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 (@Alex_Oloyede2) July 4, 2025 ❗️Trump ends 'ALL' arms to Zelensky 'All American weapons shipments, including shells & spare parts, halted' — Kiev officials to The Economist US Patriot missile system footage from NATO pic.twitter.com/cHGu7ilYYk — Paul White Gold Eagle (@PaulGoldEagle) July 3, 2025 Kiev the following …
What collapse am I referring to? The ongoing economic collapse in China… China is trapped in the worst deflationary spiral since the Great Depression, and one financial expert believes it’s a downturn the Chinese regime will not recover from. In today’s video, we talk about what’s happening in China, how it’s spreading throughout the world, …
via Mike Shedlock Construction spending has been in a huge downtrend for a year. Construction spending data from census department, chart by Mish The Census Department Construction Spending Report for May repeats the same story, down again. Total Construction Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,138.2 billion, 0.3 percent …
TLDR: The dot-com era saw explosive stock gains from 1995 to 1999, with almost everything going up Examples like CYBR and JDSU skyrocketed despite weak fundamentals The crash began on March 24, 2000, and $QQQ didn’t recover its ATH until 2014 The user kept buying the dip and dollar-cost averaging, which led to major losses …
Tariffs hit at wrong time in the cycle. See that plunge in Consumer Goods Imports (-36.2% so far)? 👇🏼 Again, you can’t have inflation when consumers are tapped out. If this tariff nonsense were happening at the beginning or middle of the economic cycle, this chart would look different. pic.twitter.com/N6Pi9ZpV8t — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) …
They keep pointing to interest rates like it’s the reason everything is falling apart. But the truth has been sitting in plain sight for years. Since the lockdown era began, the cost of living didn’t just rise. It launched. A basket of basic goods that cost $100 in 2019 now takes over $130 to replace. …
"We are going to discover just like we did from the 2005-2008 time period, that this perception that there is an incredible shortage of housing is simply wrong." pic.twitter.com/BGlNAraweK — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 19, 2025 we know what's going on pic.twitter.com/3qd615gfqm — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 20, 2025 There are roughly 14.9 million vacant …
The US economy is in big trouble, and the import data doesn’t lie. Imports are collapsing, trade is grinding to a halt, and GDP growth figures have all turned negative, showing that the economy is struggling. This news is a stark reminder of the challenges we face. Picture this: entire regions of America where the …
Gas stations across America could run completely dry in just days. We’re not talking about expensive fuel anymore – we’re talking about no fuel at all. Right now, as you’re watching this video, Iranian lawmakers are seriously considering a move that could send shockwaves through every gas station from coast to coast. They’re threatening to …
Something quiet and corrosive has taken hold. Focus is vanishing. Attention span is collapsing. Not because of exhaustion or complexity, but because of something more subtle. Every few minutes the hand reaches for the phone. It is not a conscious decision. It just happens. The brain no longer knows how to sit still. This is …