Credit spreads spike while S&P barely moves, history says bear markets follow. Investors have rotated into cash at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. “Buy the first pullback after a new high, sell the first rally after a new low.”

The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/xiba9GU3z2 — Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) March …

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ADP headline hides a weakening labor market. UPS and Amazon just erased 46,000 high paying delivery jobs in 24 hours. Low income households barely growing this year. Overall slowdown in consumer. Stocks at all-time highs

ADP National Employment Report And What the Headline Misses About Today’s Labor Market ADP says private employers added 41,000 jobs in December, framing it as a rebound. But when you slow down and look at where those jobs came from, …

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Families are paying 24% more for home appliances, 7% more for electronics and 6% more for clothes this Black Friday. America’s small businesses are barely surviving. Forget 2007. The US consumer today is facing a worse crisis.

Forget 2007. The US consumer today is facing a worse crisis. It's not Systemic Leverage; it's Household Arithmetic. My new memo breaks down the structural squeeze: why the 2026 economy faces a consumer solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis. — …

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Retail investors are fueling a new meme-stock mania, driving 6 million daily options contracts in unprofitable small-cap stocks while most of the market barely participates. Fund managers are running almost no cash.

Appetite for risk is incredibly strong: Options trading volumes in loss-making Russell 2000 stocks have risen to ~6 million contracts per day, an all-time high. Volumes have more than doubled since April and surpassed the previous record set during the …

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Global GDP released – U.S. GDP shrank. China’s manufacturing is rolling over. Mexico barely avoided technical recession. Europe? Artificially propped up…

The latest GDP data just dropped from the U.S., China, Europe, and Mexico… And at first glance?It doesn’t look disastrous.But under the surface — there’s a payback wave building.U.S. GDP shrank.China’s manufacturing is rolling over.Mexico barely avoided technical… — Jeffrey …

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Japan’s “Warren Buffett” could only barely beat SP500’s return over 38 years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-29/japan-s-octogenarian-trader-who-built-a-14-million-fortune https://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/15312895 “In 1986, he raised ¥65 million after selling his parlors, and started investing full-time in financial markets…Fujimoto says trading in his late 80s helps him enjoy life and “prevents me from getting senile.” But he’s not without regrets, …

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Principal has barely gone down

Principal has barely gone down byu/kaiyabunga inREBubble This is how all mortgages have worked since mortgages began. Look at an amortization calculator. https://www.nerdwallet.com/mortgages/amortization-schedule-calculator Pay extra on your principal. h/t pantherpack84

VIDEO: Joe Biden can barely form a sentence

Joe Biden can barely form a sentence. He can't remember Winston Churchill. This is why they are persecuting Trump. To keep Biden and Democrats in power.pic.twitter.com/f2vXUmzQEj — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) June 9, 2023