Companies raced to put AI chatbots online for novelty but users barely use them while adoption stalls and investors start questioning the promised super intelligence

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AI adoption at work has fallen and now sits at 11% of Americans, according to Census Bureau data. Adoption has fallen sharply at the largest businesses employing over 250 people. Other surveys show stagnation too: one found AI use at work dropped from 46% in June to 37% in September. Another found daily AI use at work went from 12.1% to 12.6% over a year. A fintech firm tracking corporate spending found AI use soared to 40% in early 2025 before leveling off.

Why It Matters
Big tech will spend $5 trillion on AI infrastructure through 2030. To make those investments worthwhile, they need around $650 billion a year in AI revenues, up from $50 billion today. JPMorgan estimates businesses must provide most of that revenue. But executives are seeing disappointing returns. A Deloitte poll found 45% reported returns below expectations, with only 10% exceeding them. Goldman Sachs tracks an index of companies with the largest potential earnings change from AI adoption, including Ford, H&R Block, and News Corp. The index recently started trailing the market.

My Take
Three years into the AI wave and adoption is going backwards. Executives keep talking about it on earnings calls, but the people actually doing the work aren’t using it. One survey found 87% of executives use AI but only 57% of managers and 27% of employees do. That gap tells you everything. Maybe middle managers set up AI projects to make the boss happy, then quietly let them die. Or maybe people tried it and it just doesn’t work well enough to bother with. We’ve seen the evidence: Amazon employees calling it “slop,” Microsoft’s AI code breaking Windows, academic reviews with made-up citations. Companies are spending toward $5 trillion building infrastructure that needs $650 billion in yearly revenue to pay off. But actual use is stuck at 11% and dropping at big companies. At some point the gap between what executives say and what employees actually do becomes impossible to ignore.

Hedgie🤗