Bank Run Alert! $70 billion withdrawn from commercial banks last week (8/23-8/30). $889 billion in deposits has been pulled since the all time hit 4/13/22. It looks like the bank run is back to picking up speed!

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOG https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/20230825/ A tad over a year ago (4/13/2022) the high was hit at $18,158.3536 billion: Date Deposits, All Commercial Banks (billions) Down from all time high (billions) 4/13/2022 $18,158 0 2/22/2023 (Run picks up speed) $17,690 -$468 …

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Liquidity Fairy Alert! Up and up it goes! Bank Term Funding Program usage above $100B for the 13th consecutive week ($107.527B vs $107.386B 8/17). An over reliance on central bank funding that is growing faster than the rate of inflation, BTFP is a moral hazard!

by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program hit a NEW all time high–the 13th consecutive week above $100 billion! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed …

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Liquidity Fairy Alert! Bank Term Funding Program usage UP AGAIN (.4% to $107.242B vs $106.864B 8/9), marking the 11th consecutive week over $100B. This looks more and more like there’s an over-reliance on Fed Funding–growing faster than inflation ‘should be,’ I believe the BTFP is a moral hazard!

by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program hit a NEW all time high–the 11th consecutive week above $100 billion! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed …

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Inflation Alert! New York Fed Business Survey (New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut): “Employment continued to increase slightly, and wage growth picked up. The pace of price increases was somewhat higher than last month”. Inflation is not slowing down!

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2023/2023_08blsreport.pdf Wages and Prices expected to continue rising over the next 6 months. TLDRS: New York Federal Reserve Bank’s August 2023 Business Leaders Survey shows the region’s (New York, southern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut) service sector activity …

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Inflation Alert! In July, the purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 dropped to $55.20 (-$.20 from June). Recall, CPI tracks the loss of purchasing power of your dollars & thereby the purchasing power of your hard earned labor. Folks are 2.1% worse off in terms of real value over the past year!

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R#0 Zooming in: CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of your dollars, and thereby the purchasing power of your hard earned labor: July 2022 purchasing power of $100 in January 2000: 57.1 (down -3.33% in …

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Treasury Alert! $1.859 trillion is what Treasury expects to borrow the rest of the year. For the 3rd quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt. For the 4th quarter Treasury expects to borrow $852 billion in privately-held net marketable debt.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1662 The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1]for the July – September 2023 and October – December 2023 quarters. During the July – September 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to …

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Federal Reserve Alert! July 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Banks plan to further tighten lending standards across all loan types. Why? Expected decline in collateral value, Anticipated decrease in credit quality, Predicted liquidity challenges, & Deposit Outflows.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Table 1 (PDF) | Table 2 (PDF) | Charts (PDF) Wut Mean?: Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Lending: Banks tightened standards for C&I loans to businesses of all sizes. All loan terms for C&I loans, like rate spreads, premiums on riskier loans, credit …

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Interesting week ahead! Many charts signal market weakness aligning with week 21. Investors on alert for potential shifts.

Next week will be interesting because many charts are indicating market weakness which lines up with week 21. https://t.co/ggQXxGybX0 pic.twitter.com/U2aMp07RLv — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 29, 2023 Here's an interesting chart. Volatility spikes have been occurring on the same weekly intervals …

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Federal Reserve Alert! The Fed announces the individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1. The minimum capital requirement is 4.5 percent; The stress capital buffer requirement is at least 2.5 percent. Buckle up!

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/large-bank-capital-requirements-20230727.pdf Wut mean?: Following its stress test earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Board today announced the individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1. Large bank capital requirements are in part determined by the …

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Federal Reserve Alert! Upcoming 6-Month Regulatory Plans Focus on Strengthening Support from Big Bank Companies–Looks Like the Fed is Revisiting Stalled Dodd-Frank Required Rules from 2017 & 2017?

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2023-14556.pdf Prerule Stage: SOURCE OF STRENGTH (SECTION 610 REVIEW): Purpose: The Federal Reserve, along with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), is working on a proposed rule. What It’s About: This …

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Liquidity Fairy Alert! Bank Term Funding Program usage rose this week ($102.927B vs $102.305B on 7/12), marking the 7th straight week over $100B. It’s looking more and more like there’s an over-reliance on Fed Funding. I believe this be a moral hazard.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program is on the increase again! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing …

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Federal Reserve Alert! Federal Reserve announces that its new system for instant payments, the FedNow® Service, is now live. What Is It, and What Does It Do?

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230720a.htm The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced that its new system for instant payments, the FedNow® Service, is now live. Banks and credit unions of all sizes can sign up and use this tool to instantly transfer …

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Liquidity Fairy Alert! Bank Term Funding Program usage rose this week ($102.305B vs $101.959B on 7/5), marking the 6th straight week over $100B. It’s looking more and more like there’s an over-reliance on Fed Funding. Could this be a moral hazard?

by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program is back on the increase! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing …

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Federal Reserve Alert! Fed Releases Public sections of July 2023 Resolution Plans aka “Living Wills” for: Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon Corp, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp, and Wells Fargo & Co.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Bank of America (PDF) Bank of New York Mellon Corp (PDF) Citigroup (PDF) Credit Suisse (PDF)***** Goldman Sachs (PDF) JPMorgan Chase (PDF) Morgan Stanley (PDF) State Street Corp (PDF) Wells Fargo & Co (PDF) ***** Credit Suisse submitted …

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Inflation Alert! Despite a 3.0% increase in the overall index, excluding food and energy, inflation remains persistent as it rose by 4.8% over the past 12 months. While Corporate Media celebrates the headline, inflation is still growing and showing no signs of slowing!

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm All items less food and energy: Inflation and Housing: The overall index for items excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% in June. The cost of housing, represented by the shelter index, rose by 0.4% in …

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Inflation Alert! Purchasing power of dollars continues to VANISH! In June, purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 is now $55.40 (-$.20 from April & $1 since January!)

by Dismal-Jellyfish Remember, CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of your dollars, & thereby the purchasing power of your hard earned labor. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R#0 Let’s zoom in on this since 2020: CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing …

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