Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
23 states are now in a recession and 11 more are close to it. The last time this many states entered recession at once was 2008. Back then, unemployment hit 10% and foreclosures doubled within 18 months. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance 23 states are now in a recession and 11 more are close to it. The last …
This is consistent with the effects cited in the recently released SF Fed study of 150 years of tariffs. Tariff shocks = higher unemployment = lower inflation = clear aggregate demand contraction. This is not model based. It’s historical, empirical & statistically robust pic.twitter.com/wHbqUXofNV — Fifty Shades of Truth (@RamonGo62661955) November 15, 2025 Cass Freight …
People are starting to owe more than their homes are worth again, sound familiar? This is when people start mailing their keys to the bank and leave After all: Why would you go through the hardship to keep paying on a $400k mortgage when the house is only worth 300k? In 2008 many decided to …
If we get a rally here it won’t be because things feel healthy, it’ll be because the drop has gotten heavy enough that buyers smell a quick flip. pic.twitter.com/53GwRJs8XJ — Sir Meemsalot (@Meme0rable) November 14, 2025 Crypto markets have now erased -$1.1 trillion since October 6th. pic.twitter.com/mTgpK8ExbO — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 14, 2025 …
by Michael The alarms are getting even louder each week. It has become exceedingly clear that the U.S. economy has entered a crisis that is similar to what we experienced in 2008 and 2009, and a lot of people are really starting to freak out. For those that cannot see the stunning parallels between the Great Recession and …
China just fired the first shot in the next liquidity war, and the Fed will have no choice but to follow. The Chinese central bank is about to surpass the Fed to become the largest central bank in the world again. The PBOC has officially resumed quantitative easing. And I believe it’s only a matter …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, What’s the matter with these people? Trump says the economy is humming. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary survey results for November 2025. Consumer sentiment fell back about 6% this November, led by a 17% drop in current …
“Recruiters are being laid off in massive numbers at large corporations. It’s not just artificial intelligence. These companies have halted all hiring completely. It hasn’t been this bad since 2008.” Yep pic.twitter.com/XS4f0Pd2qv — Mr. E (@GreatMisterE) November 7, 2025 Has this ever happened with the stock market near ATH? https://t.co/XHVxV0c7J7 — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) November …
🚨 $20.35 BILLION Borrowed from the Federal Reserve Lender of Last Resort this morning! This is an All Time High since the $GME Sneeze! BOJ is helping out today with ~$1B too. pic.twitter.com/uILF9TbkNM — WhatCanIMakeToday (@WhatCanIMT) October 31, 2025 US BANK RESERVES FALL TO $2.8 TLN, LOWEST SINCE 2020 Liquitity is draining from the system …
Peace in the Middle East… pic.twitter.com/KuTb8JYR8L — Janitor Jack 🇺🇸🇺🇦🐱🐻🐸🪐 (@JanitorJack2) October 19, 2025 Israeli media report clashes between Hamas fighters and Israeli forces in Rafah. PM Netanyahu left a cabinet meeting for urgent security talks after alleged IED blasts injured soldiers. Israel now conducting air strikes, accusing Hamas of breaching the ceasefire.#Rafah pic.twitter.com/C6TR0SF3mq — …
Something broke again in the banking system today. The headlines say regional banks fell because of a few bad loans. That is not the real story. Zions Bancorporation confessed to a $50 million loss on two California loans, and Western Alliance collapsed 11% after admitting it was suing a borrower for fraud (Yahoo Finance, Star …
Crytpo saw its biggest liquidations in history Friday when Trade Wars 2.2 flared up. Commodities were also pounded, bonds bigtime bid, even stocks sent significantly lower. Tariffs aren’t really the issue here, either, as a confluence of negatives have been sapping sentiment for the past few weeks. The stock market looks stronger than ever — …
via Phoenix Capital Research As I noted yesterday, gold is breaking out again. The precious metal, priced in dollars, erupted higher this week breaking out of another consolidation period. This phenomenon isn’t just about the $USD. Gold has also broken out to the upside against the Euro, Yen and Franc.
by Michael During the weeks ahead, I will be watching Israel and Iran like a hawk. Prior to the 12 day war between Israel and Iran earlier this year, it was clear that something was up. Now we are witnessing similar signs, and many experts are concerned that the very fragile ceasefire that was agreed to …
Trump is fighting with Google/Youtube again. This time, over Univision. What are your thoughts on this? pic.twitter.com/PA21vBxzOW — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) October 4, 2025 President Trump is calling for Univision to return to YouTube TV, saying its recent removal is “VERY BAD” for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterms. “I hope Univision, a great …
Promise made, promise broken. Food-at-home rose 0.6% from July to Aug—the biggest month-over-month increase since Aug '22. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 5.6%. Whatever growth Trump claims from his insane trade wars, it's us, everyday Americans, who are paying the price. pic.twitter.com/Q1XIJaFYxb — Ryan Crosswell (@Ryan_Crosswell) September 12, 2025
Is now a good time to invest or sell everything? US stocks fell from record highs on Friday as Wall Street digested an update on consumer inflation that showed prices firming higher above the Fed’s target in July.
Home prices are about to turn negative again. I illustrated the last several year of home prices to show what's under way. pic.twitter.com/OZGqCtMypQ — Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) August 16, 2025 Transfer of power to the buyers. 🤙🙌 pic.twitter.com/mTIec4zllk — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 17, 2025
🚨 $MSTR mNAV breaks lower again! Do you get it yet? Saylor is already cooked. The preferred share issues were a last desperate Hail Mary play to keep the Ponzi alive…they failed. Liquidity is drying. He can’t issue new ATMs to keep it pumped. mNAV is going below 1 https://t.co/qlHSm5gR67 pic.twitter.com/7HLaXwcQI5 — Rho Rider (@RhoRider) …
by Michael Well, that was quite a shock. We just got confirmation that inflation is starting to accelerate once again. That is really bad news, because the cost of living has already been stressing people out all over the country. In fact, one recent survey found that 86 percent of Americans are stressed out about grocery prices. But …
Trump pulled back from his threat to slap new tariffs on Mexican imports just hours before the August 1 deadline. “We had a very productive conversation. No need for penalties at this time,” he said from Bedminster, offering no details on what changed. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump/taco-trump-announces-hes-backing-off-august-1-tariff-deadline-with-mexico/ https://archive.is/5y0Jp The move came after several GOP senators privately warned that …
The movie theater revival is not an accident. Domestic box office in 2025 has surged about 10% compared to the same period last year, reaching roughly $5,140,000,000 through July 30. Surprise winners like F1 and Superman are pulling audiences back. Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore didn’t overthink it: “Looking at 2025 in a vacuum, what a …
Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes now wears a new label in Washington: sanctioned for human rights abuses. The U.S. government accuses him of abusing power to silence dissent, targeting Americans through secret court orders that pressured major social media companies to ban voices critical of the regime. His judicial overreach includes authorizing pre-trial …
Tesla tried to quietly launch its invite-only robotaxi demo in San Francisco. The plan was to use its valid DMV testing permit with a safety driver and only offer rides to friends, family, and a handful of guests. That should have been legal. But the California Public Utilities Commission stepped in and said no. Not …
by Michael I am entirely convinced that the “mystery explosions” that we have been witnessing are an indication that the war between Israel and Iran will soon be “unpaused”. Today, the most important newspaper in the United States ran a major story about the “mysterious explosions and fires” that just keep happening all over Iran. If you …
Here is a quick chart I mustered up today… The ‘1929 trendline’ it’s a seldom and scary situation! pic.twitter.com/RKKuuDqKEn — Beachside Bagholder (@dax_mccaskill) July 18, 2025 2008 vs. 2025 Overlaying gold prices for the same period is even scarier. The ingredients are present now; all that's needed is a catalyst. https://t.co/8r1GIWZ7ys pic.twitter.com/a38GnrtieH — The Great …
Scalise’s right—dependency on government handouts isn’t sustainable. But let’s be clear: Biden’s policies turbocharged welfare expansion, trapping millions in cycles of stagnation. The One Big Beautiful Bill slashes corporate taxes to reignite job creation, but D.C. still wastes… — Watch DOGE (@dogeai_gov) July 1, 2025
