Fed cuts rates near market peak, historical patterns warn of serious correction. AAII shows stock allocation at 71.2%, cash near four-year lows, echoes late 2021 market peak.
When the Fed cuts rates while $SPY is trading near all-time highs (within 1%), the market usually falls sharply 2–3 months later. That aligns closely with our model’s prediction of a serious correction beginning in February 2026. Every time rate cuts begin near market peaks, the aftermath has been very bad. Historically, the pattern is …