Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Europe grapples with its decline Americans consumed by their country’s election cycle may be struck by the mood across the pond. In the apocalyptic rhetoric of Republicans, the American economy is the proverbial sick man of the West, hampered by rampant inflation, battered by tides of plundering illegal migrants and doomed by the leftist schemes …
This yield curve inversion is WORSE than 1929 and 2008 Buckle up pic.twitter.com/u3GEu1woDQ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 5, 2024 🚨CRASH ALERT🚨 1929 VS 2024 Scary ? Don't be alarmed, it gets much worse. A complete financial cleansing is overdue. pic.twitter.com/Ml8ib4E891 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 4, 2024 The difference between Real GDP and …
https://twitter.com/RaymieMark/status/1829162596492292106 What stage? https://t.co/nl1mq3RFPD — KKGB (@INArteCarloDoss) August 29, 2024 Pending Home Sales in the United States decreased 8.50 percent in July of 2024 over the same month in the previous year.https://t.co/NHmalX7Rux pic.twitter.com/WOKdO4kX1W — TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) August 29, 2024 The other sectors of the economy are pulling the rest of the weight, buoyed by …
"Markets pricing in the most cuts since 2008."@marketdesk via @MikeZaccardi pic.twitter.com/qIUTMQymi8 — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) August 10, 2024 This is where the bull shit hits the road. This entire week's global rally was based on the widespread belief that the BOJ has paused permanently. However, the majority of economists in Japan expect rates to continue …
Is there a housing crash brewing for the rest of 2024 and into 2025. Aren’t the home prices currently the highest that they’ve ever been in the recorded history isn’t the home affordability Factor the lowest it’s been in the last 40 years or so isn’t it a fact that the interest rates are at …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ0VpwkXr7c
🚨WARNING🚨 Dow transports The topping process eerily similar. 2024 vs 2008 PAY ATTENTION !! pic.twitter.com/4iCocRa3Zh — The Great Martis (@great_martis) June 14, 2024 🚨 WARNING🚨 2024 vs 2008 Dow jones . Technical poetry in play . *Those who suffer vertigo please look away pic.twitter.com/ZqYdHgH6DY — The Great Martis (@great_martis) June 14, 2024 CAUTION: Recession is …
Canada and EU has already cut rates this year The global economy awaits the most coordinated easing since the Great Financial Crisis. 10 out of 11 major central banks are expected to cut rates in the second half of 2024, the most banks in 16 years.👇https://t.co/4SILXocj5M — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 8, 2024 Today's …
Nvidia accounts for a staggering 43% of the S&P 500’s gains year-to-date, highlighting the dismal breadth of the market. Many stocks are down while tech continues to monopolize attention, reminiscent of the unsettling patterns seen in 2008. If you’re bullish and believe the Fed will cut rates soon, you must recognize that stocks are now …
Homebuilders Have the Most Inventory Since May 2008, Big Discounts Coming Speculative building, measured by started but unsold housing inventory, is at the highest level since May of 2008. https://t.co/VgkiA2sWJq — Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) May 25, 2024 The echoes of 2008 are deafening as the housing market teeters on the edge of another crisis. …
via Mike Shedlock Speculative building, measured by started but unsold housing inventory, is at the highest level since May of 2008. To unload these units, builders will have to offer steep discounts. New Home Sales by Census Department, Chart by Mish Stage of Construction Details Homes for Sale: 480,000 the most since January of 2008 …
⚠️Crash Alert ⚠️ 2024 vs 2008 Dow jones . Topping formations have certain characteristics If we correlate 2024 with 2008 we need to tolerate patience .⚠️ * Pause /consolidation *Upthrust .* Ascending channel .*Sharp correction .* New Highs on lower volume .*Death… pic.twitter.com/djwDKhnGD7 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 12, 2024 2024 mirrors the ominous …
The reversion will be interesting. Either the long-term bills rate increases sharply, or the short yields plunge. I wonder which will happen? h/t Ok_Significance_4008
TL:DR: The Federal Reserve bought Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) after the 2008 financial crisis. JPMorgan Chase was chosen to hold these MBS securities. JPMorgan Chase has been charged with multiple criminal activities related to MBS. Despite these charges, the New York Fed has not switched custodians. The New York Fed has become less forthcoming about their …
The paper is verbose (155 pages) and not riveting reading, but it does include everything I know about equity risk premiums and their estimation. My first update was written in 2009, during the financial crisis, and I have updated it annually since. https://t.co/wZcZy5Az5C pic.twitter.com/dFUA7sbVNr — Aswath Damodaran (@AswathDamodaran) March 30, 2024 The standard approach to …
Corporate bonds outstanding >$10T. Primary dealer inventory $33B -not a liquid market. When credit markets quiet & calm, it gives impression liquidity's fine, but if many want to sell, liquidity disappears. Even in quiet markets, finding a bond can take several days @apolloglobal pic.twitter.com/6tx1U6jNH6 — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 24, 2024 Up and to …
A top asset management firm has warned China’s economic crisis is going to “get much worse.” Hayman Capital founder Kyle Bass has warned that President Xi’s overreliance on real estate has sent its economy tumbling toward 2008-era financial conditions. It comes as Chinese markets have suffered a $7 trillion fallout since 2021. Over the last …
Folks were walking away from their homes since your mortgage loan was guarantee\backed by the home itself. The laws have changed since then. 93% of home buyers have regrets about purchasing a house in 2023. While Americans are looking forward to the housing market reverting to pre-pandemic conditions in 2023, cooler real estate trends have …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/11/the-nonbank-shadow-of-banks/ TLDRS: Fed paper: The evolution of banks and nonbanks is closely linked, particularly since the 1990s. In the 1990s, financial ‘innovation’ and regulatory changes boosted asset securitization. This shifted financial intermediation from a traditional bank-centric model (taking deposits, issuing loans, and holding them to maturity) to a new model where loans were …
In 2008, the European Union had a larger GDP ($16.3T) than the US ($14.8T). 15 years later, the US’s GDP is $25.4T, while Europe’s is basically unchanged at $16.6T. Both economies were on par until the GFC, but the US just rebounded stronger during the 2010s tech boom. https://t.co/C69jCMJIQQ pic.twitter.com/SBG532qnqi — Jack Raines (@Jack_Raines) November …
As Americans grapple with average monthly payments of $500 for student loans and $740 for new cars, resulting in the average American spending a staggering $1,240 each month just to finance a car and manage student debt, with delinquency rates expected to keep climbing. Meanwhile, the median homebuyer is spending $2,900 on monthly home payments. …
Convoy that was seen was the market disruptor for the massive trucking business 2 years ago, shutdown completely today mentioning a massive recession in supply chain. 2008 will be a walk in the park… https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/10/19/bezos-backed-freight-firm-convoy-shuts-down-read-ceo-memo-here.html Cass Freight Index, quarterly change: Through Q3. pic.twitter.com/3gfyMWBtoA — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 19, 2023 h/t bodymindtrader
Fun fact: bank credit is now contracting! Since dollar standard (‘71), that’s only happened once before: 2008. Losses in T bonds will far worse than mortgage losses. Stocks are on the verge of a massive collapse. Fractional banking does’t work in reverse. Few. pic.twitter.com/0fzX16lYGn — Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) October 15, 2023 Banks losses on held …
Jobs hotter than expected. CPI hotter than expected. This is 1980 Volcker deja vu. Or 2008: pic.twitter.com/HzVoOyWtfj — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 12, 2023 We have been dealing with elevated inflation for nearly 3 years. 3.7% inflation in September is building on years of inflation before 2023. The Fed will continue doing whatever it takes to …
via FT: September 14 – Financial Times (Laura Noonan): “Private equity and private debt executives are too laid back about the mounting risks in their industry, the chair of the top organisation representing securities regulators warned…, as it published new research on vulnerabilities in the $13tn market. The International Organization of Securities Commissions (Iosco) said private finance …
by mark000 And projection for 2023 is another $1.5 Trillion. The current “USA economy strong” story is bullshit. It’s totally dependent on ongoing massive govt stimmy life support.
Matt Gaetz has questions… The United States has for decades been committed to educating military leaders from developing nations — so that those military leaders can then return to their countries and stage violent coups. When GOP Congressman Matt Gaetz recently asked a Pentagon official why we keep training coup leaders, the military official …
