Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
For the record, U.S. stocks peaked in October 2007 and the economy entered recession in December 2007. As of now, the S&P 500 peaked in October. ADP private payroll job creation year to date is at the same level it was at when the GFC recession started. Is the AI super bubble killing jobs? It’s …
U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 175% from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024. It is up 183% from the 54,064 job cuts announced one month prior, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “October’s pace of job cutting was much …
US mass layoff warnings are rising at a concerning pace: 39,006 Americans were given advance layoff notice in October, the 2nd-highest since the 2020 pandemic. These notices are issued under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, which obligates covered employers to provide at least 60 days of notice before a mass layoff or …
23 states are now in a recession and 11 more are close to it. The last time this many states entered recession at once was 2008. Back then, unemployment hit 10% and foreclosures doubled within 18 months. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance 23 states are now in a recession and 11 more are close to it. The last …
by Michael The alarms are getting even louder each week. It has become exceedingly clear that the U.S. economy has entered a crisis that is similar to what we experienced in 2008 and 2009, and a lot of people are really starting to freak out. For those that cannot see the stunning parallels between the Great Recession and …
pic.twitter.com/T642kqJBaO — McClellan (@MI_Architect) November 11, 2025 A staggering 84% of Gen Z say they’re delaying milestones to buy a house. There’s ‘no single fix’ for the affordability crisis, real estate exec says The American Dream of buying a home is still alive, but the path to get there looks very different from decades past. …
“Recruiters are being laid off in massive numbers at large corporations. It’s not just artificial intelligence. These companies have halted all hiring completely. It hasn’t been this bad since 2008.” Yep pic.twitter.com/XS4f0Pd2qv — Mr. E (@GreatMisterE) November 7, 2025 Has this ever happened with the stock market near ATH? https://t.co/XHVxV0c7J7 — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) November …
U may take a look into what is happening with SOFR-EFFR spread I plotted a chart for Last 8 yearsSOFR – EFFR 9 ( 5 day moving average ) pic.twitter.com/nEdtw2Iw9k — Shabeer Ali (@shabeeraly) November 3, 2025 The Fed’s recent repo injections, like the ~$29B on Nov 1, aim to ease short-term funding pressures amid …
via WSB: Explanation: “The Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical signals that together forecast the likelihood of a stock market crash. The technical inputs are the 10 Week Simple Moving Average, New 52 week highs on the NYSE, New 52 Week lows on the NYSE, and the McClellan Oscillator. If, on the same day, …
WALL STREET SHOCKER: MOST U.S. STOCK TRADING NOW HAPPENS IN THE SHADOWS — NOT ON EXCHANGES For the first time in history, more than half of U.S. stock trading is happening off the public exchanges — funneled into dark pools and internal trading desks of major Wall Street firms. — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) October 25, …
Beijing said economy grew 4.8% in the third quarter, a deceleration that nonetheless keeps it on track to hit its official annual target https://www.wsj.com/economy/chinas-economic-growth-slows-to-one-year-low-07e36e7b The July-September data was the weakest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2024, and compares with a 5.2% pace of growth in the previous quarter, the government said in …
Institutional knows when to bail. They milked the housing game for all it was worth. Now we get to watch inventories rise as retail is left holding the bag. https://t.co/DWGLugCHZk — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 21, 2025 🚨 *IT'S `PARTY LIKE IT'S 1999' IN CREDIT MARKETS: JIM CHANOS — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 22, 2025 …
This story just won’t go away. Private credit=subprime MBS 💀 https://t.co/LlOq0NvN1u — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 22, 2025 Andrew Bailey has said the crisis in the $3tn shadow banking industry has echoes of 2008, in comments that will fuel concerns about a looming crash. The Governor of the Bank of England said private credit lenders …
The housing market "is going to be worse than 2008." – Housing Expert Melody Wright — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 16, 2025 DO NOT BUY A HOME. I repeat, DO NOT BUY A HOME. The world is changing fast. You need to stay liquid. This is coming from someone with 4 homes who is actively …
Worsening. Chart update soon. pic.twitter.com/OCvjuRKZ3R — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 15, 2025 Besides the financial sector, take a look at construction and real estate.Both can no longer keep up with the S&P 500.There are several reasons for this, which vary across sectors — though construction and real estate are, of course, directly connected. pic.twitter.com/tceWN4qISO …
The housing market has been the ONLY market that has remained oddly unphased out all the markets that have taken hits recently…and that fucker is GROSSLY OVER VALUED! — Blackpilled Millennial (@tronics_sniffer) October 12, 2025 I don't think you understand how truly fucked we are… Imagine 2008 but 10x the leverage, + a housing bubble, …
Everyone’s chasing the next Nvidia but Buffett’s old playbook might win again. Goldman: “Not a bubble, just a very expensive balloon tied to 5 companies and a prayer.”Translation—diversify before the pin shows up wearing a recession. — TradingPulse X (@TradingPulseX) October 8, 2025 Here is an interesting fact about the DotCom bubble collapse from 2000 …
If the shift accelerates, we could see a generation trapped in low-paying, unstable work while wealth concentrates in fewer hands, and social unrest flares where hope disappears. The next decade could make 2008 look like a warm-up, and nobody is ready for the consequences already stacking in plain sight. If you’re trying to compare today’s …
Must be time for another crisis. Job openings held steady in August but real-time measures don’t look so good for September. pic.twitter.com/RCNiOOKKvn — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 30, 2025 6 Month Change in Private Employment 👇🏼 “Ruh Roh” pic.twitter.com/me2QNy0YZy — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) September 30, 2025 🚨BREAKING: The US labor market is CONTRACTING. US …
I lived 2000 bubble, 2008 bubble but this is by FAR the biggest of them all… this is the end of USA as u know it… they know whats coming thats why they are pumping with 0 fear of consequences of fraud being discover or corruption… they know why… take care https://t.co/ZfRgdJs2H5 — Templar (@GingkoPT) …
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/6Yhm79I8H4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 18, 2025 30-10YR Yield Spread Rising. Look at the chart…. and tell me what you think! pic.twitter.com/NmoDGkE272 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 19, 2025 US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo — unusual_whales …
The debt pressure in the system is reaching a tipping point that could trigger cascading failures across households and corporations. With high leverage and stagnant wages, even a minor shock in energy, rent, or credit markets could force millions into defaults within months. Corporate restructuring and AI adoption are quietly hollowing out sectors that appear …
Most buyers since COVID couldn’t afford the house just like 2008. Especially with mortgage rates where they are. https://t.co/I9OLqLUANX — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 16, 2025 It would take a heart of stone to read about these F*cked Borrowers who can't sell their overpriced houses, & not laugh byu/Boo_Randy_II inHouseBuyers Markets don't seem to have …
“When we have the next crisis, the word ‘private’ is going to be in every headline,” says Cornell Professor Dave Collum. In this interview with Daniela Cambone, Collum warns that the biggest risks in the next financial crisis won’t come from the public markets—stocks, Treasuries, and the like—but from the shadowy private markets: private credit, …
Economy is in LATE CYCLE. Recession is building, and the market is about to confront the limits of manipulation and policy. The fraud in the financial system is even more rampant today 😡 The whole thing is RIGGED much like 2008 in some ways. pic.twitter.com/xB1exGyhWa — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 9, 2025 https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1965416983782195242 When gold …
The mortgage market has been tanking for the last two years, suggesting that the U.S. housing market will continue to struggle in the final months of 2025. Mortgage applications to buy a house, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association, is still 35% below its pre-pandemic levels, and down 55% from the pandemic peak. This …
Inside you’ll see: • The valuation dashboard (Buffett Indicator, Tobin’s Q, CAPE, P/B) and why “long-term averages” may be misleading when you add an extra century of data. • How index concentration, mega-cap cash-flow multiples, and extreme P/Es mirror late-stage bubbles. • Classic warning lights: Dow Transports diverging, insiders dumping, and a yield-curve signal with …
Credit card delinquencies highest in 14 years, unpaid balances 90+ days, consumer spending under threat. Once the plastic is maxed, how do people buy anything? There's about to be a MASSIVE explosion, of all these people's student loan debt, credit card debt, and new BNPL debt hitting at once. I'm positioned pretty well in collections …
We Cannot Afford A Recession There has been ongoing debate as to whether the U.S. economy can weather some of the headwinds we’re currently facing. However, if the past two recessions are any indication, we simply cannot afford a recession—not fiscally, not politically, and certainly not mathematically. The core issue is that the debt-to-revenue ratio …
