Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Gold used to be crushed by moves like this in the 10-year. Not anymore pic.twitter.com/DjHgkCJNb7 — Jan Nieuwenhuijs (@JanGold_) October 7, 2024 The bond market is reacting contrary to expectations following the Fed’s pivot, with yields increasing significantly despite the Fed’s rate cuts. This indicates a lack of demand for bonds, driven by concerns over …
10-year Treasury yields being the highest relative to 2-year yields since 2022 indicates a widening gap. This is typically seen as a signal of improving economic conditions or inflationary pressures in the long term, as investors demand higher returns for holding longer-term bonds. Conversely, it can also suggest that the market expects economic challenges ahead, …
The China 10-Year Government Bond Yield recently reached its lowest point in nearly 22 years. As of the latest update on June 21, 2024, the yield stands at 2.267%1. This yield represents the annual return that investors can expect if they hold the bond until its maturity in 10 years. China's 10-Year Bond Yield just dropped to its lowest …
via SCHIFFGOLD The wizards at the Fed and US Treasury have been forced to acknowledge that their “transitory,” inflation is, in fact, quite “sticky.” And with the inflation elephant now acknowledged by the circus of high finance, Treasury yields keep inching up, recently reaching 4.7% — the highest since November. The Fed is stuck: It needs to raise interest rates to tame inflation …
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by betsharks0 In this case, the interest rates on 10-year bonds higher than s&p It could suggest that people are becoming less worried about the immediate future compared to the long-term outlook. IN RECESSION Scenario: If the yield curve is normalizing during a recession, might be due to the belief that the worst of the …
by Euro347 Bank of Japan has been saying they are keeping an eye on the Yen. And the yen keeps getting weaker, currently at 154 to the Dollar and going higher by the day. Bank of Japan is the single biggest holder of US treasuries. About a Trillion+ Dollars worth. If they want to save …
Despite expectations of inflation tapering, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge surpasses 8%, highlighting ongoing economic strains. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) records a significant uptick at 3.5%, the highest since September 2023, with Core CPI outperforming forecasts for four consecutive months at 3.8%. Amidst this backdrop, concerns loom over the sustainability of rising power …
Make America affordable again … Has your income gone up more than 40% since 2019? pic.twitter.com/5AYZP26oER — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) April 8, 2024 US 10-year inflation-adjusted yields are at the highest levels of 2024. pic.twitter.com/Z0LeH1PAFJ — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 8, 2024 Grandma Yellen’s recent claim that inflation will continue to decline might sound …
Chinese stocks hit a decade-low P/E ratio at 8, revealing a concerning trend in valuation practices. In a seismic development, a Hong Kong court orders Evergrande’s liquidation, plunging its stock further, while China’s real estate index remains in an 85% free fall. In response to the crisis, China deploys economic stimuli, contemplating a short selling …
by confoundedinterest17 The Fed had better think twice about expected rate cuts. The market just isn’t feeling it. Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield touching almost 4.10% as investors focused on stronger-than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at …
A trader recently dropped a cool $16.7 million on about 250,000 call contracts tied to the VIX Index, betting on increased stock market volatility. This isn’t your average move – the strike price is 17, expiring on Feb. 14. With the VIX not breaking 17 since November, it’s got everyone buzzing. Seems our trader senses …
US is leading the way on this, unfortunately. If the US refinanced its current debt load ($33.827 trillion) at the yield on 10-year US Treasury bond (4.38%), interest expense would be $1.48 trillion, 50% higher than the top of this skyrocketing chart.https://t.co/MLnYFsU229 — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) November 28, 2023 $2 Trillion is the interest on …
Average credit card balances top $6,000, a 10-year high, as delinquencies rise. “Balances jumped 15% from a year ago, according to a separate quarterly credit industry insights report from TransUnion, while the average balance per consumer hit $6,088, the highest in 10 years.” And we haven’t even hit the Christmas shopping season. h/t SG
The Japan 10y swap goes beyond the 1% ceiling, BOJ's UEDA in shambles pic.twitter.com/MDrgOWzNgg — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) October 31, 2023 The BOJ's strategy seems to be as obscure as possible as it tiptoes away from yield curve control. What does this even mean? “We decided that it’s appropriate to increase flexibility so that long-term yields …
Morgan Stanley’s stock takes a significant dive, while Bank of America sees a decline in deposits, albeit slower than JPMorgan Chase, amid increasing competition for deposits. The U.S. commercial property sector is experiencing its highest distress level in a decade, with significant debt and defaults among major players, hinting at an impending reckoning as substantial …
Mortgage rates are now officially TRIPLE where they were just 2 years ago. However, the median sales price of a home continues to rise. Affordability is so bad that not even investors can afford to buy. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 17, 2023 US …
The Bear Market never ended. The end of this bear market rally is rapidly approaching……. https://t.co/kf0JCvL7XA — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 5, 2023 G, we already there… Long-duration US TSY bonds have now lost more in % terms than stocks did during the GFC in 2008-2009 The drawdown in Vanguard Ext Duration Treasury ETF …
by confoundedinterest17 Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate is up to 7.31%, the highest level since December 2000. That means that mortgage rates are up 69% under Biden. That is in spite of $2.5 TRILLION in agency MBS being held on The Fed’s balance sheet. As the 10-year Treasury yield is up to 4.67%.
by Ok_Significance_4008 I asked Bard and that’s what it said: A rising 10-year Treasury yield can have a number of implications for stocks. First, it can make it more expensive for companies to borrow money, which can weigh on their earnings. Second, it can make stocks less attractive to investors who are looking for income, …
Real yields on 10-year Treasuries closed yesterday at the highest since 2009. pic.twitter.com/Ujfb0Lco7l — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 15, 2023 Nominal yields keep going higher and this affects corporate bonds $LQD, therefore cost of refinancing is increasing. We can expect this chop into the market to keep going while investors move from growth to value …
The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising aggressively on the back of stronger-than-expected economic data This is a major headwind for equities pic.twitter.com/C0Xc2ZAf8x — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 14, 2023 https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1691087531813515264 #Bonds are starting to look bad… US Treasury term premia (black) are breaking higher and pushing 10y yields up (orange). This isn't good for …
According to Robert Shiller, a renowned economics professor at Yale University, the remarkable ten-year surge in U.S. home prices may find its conclusion when the Federal Reserve concludes its cycle of rate hikes. Yale University economics professor, Robert Shiller, predicts that the impressive decade-long rally in U.S. home prices will likely taper off once the …
