The situation surrounding the U.S. federal debt is not only concerning but also increasingly alarming. The federal debt has recently surpassed a staggering $33 trillion, a historic milestone in itself. What’s even more worrisome is the rapid pace at which it’s been growing. Since June, it has been expanding at an annualized rate of 18.5%.
What makes this situation even more unsettling is that the United States hasn’t even experienced a recession yet. The current level of Treasury issuances is truly unprecedented, and this raises questions about the nation’s ability to manage its debt responsibly.
For some perspective, consider that since 2001, the U.S. government has consistently spent more money than it generates in revenue. This has resulted in a steady increase in the national debt as a percentage of the GDP:
In 1980, it was 31% of GDP.
By 2015, it had climbed to 101%.
Today, it stands at a whopping 123%.
Since the debt ceiling “crisis,” the U.S. has been adding an astonishing $1 trillion in debt every month. In just the past five years, the country has accumulated a total debt increase of $11.5 trillion.
Adding to the concern, the U.S. is on track to spend approximately $1 trillion annually on interest expenses alone. This means that interest payments will soon become the largest expense for the U.S. government.
The question that naturally arises from all of this is: How can this situation possibly end well? The growing federal debt and the increasing burden of interest payments raise significant economic and fiscal challenges that will require careful management and policy decisions to address.
Debt rising at this pace is going to make the US's interest expense problem even worse than this chart (which ends at Q2) depicts. t.co/MLnYFsU229
— David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) September 18, 2023
What's even more concerning than the federal debt surpassing $33 trillion for the first time in history is the fact that it has been growing at an annualized rate of 18.5% since June.
And by the way:
We haven’t even seen a recession yet.
Today’s Treasury issuances are truly… pic.twitter.com/r1kzWpprQh
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 18, 2023
US National Debt as % of GDP…
Today: 123% t.co/VywaD5CNLw
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 18, 2023
BREAKING: For the first time in history, total US Federal debt crosses $33 trillion.
Since the debt ceiling “crisis” the US has added $1 trillion in debt PER MONTH.
Over the last 5 years, the US has added a total of $11.5 trillion in debt.
At the same time, we are on track for… pic.twitter.com/RrzqMJ3imT
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 18, 2023