Phoenix is experiencing a significant increase in home inventory, with active listings in April 2024 reaching nearly 15,000, a 50% rise compared to the previous year and a staggering 326% increase over two years. This surge in inventory could lead to declines in home prices in the second half of 2024, challenging the narrative of low inventory. Areas on the western side of the Phoenix Metro are particularly affected, with many ZIP codes already showing signs of “Inventory Surplus,” indicating a potential oversupply in the market and suggesting possible price declines ahead.
1) You have to be very careful if you're a buyer or investor in 2024.
Because we keep hearing the "low inventory" narrative.
Yet that narrative is collapsing in cities like Phoenix. Where there's way fewer buyers and more sellers.
Signaling a downward shift in market.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 3, 2024
3) It's hard to imagine home prices keeping their record high levels in this areas.
Because it was the inventory shortage which pushed prices up so high to begin with.
So now that inventory is spiking, one has to think that home price declines might be coming next…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 3, 2024
5) Phoenix got hit hard in 2022 when the housing market downturn started.
Sellers panicked. And listings spiked. Causing prices to drop significantly.
But then in 2023 sellers refused to list their homes in a down market. Causing inventory to collapse. Pushing prices back up… pic.twitter.com/z2jsE75Xmm
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 3, 2024