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Shoppers are buying fewer items than a year ago, and grocery sales are declining as weakening unit sales are now outweighing rising prices, per CNBC

The U.S. grocery slowdown is becoming harder to ignore.

Shoppers are buying fewer items than a year ago, and grocery sales are declining as weakening unit sales are now outweighing rising prices. That is according to new analysis from Bain & Company using NielsenIQ grocery data shared exclusively with CNBC.

Grocery units, which refer to individual items or products sold, fell 1.8% in June from a year earlier, a sharp reversal from the 0.1% year-over-year growth recorded in June 2025. While prices continue to rise about 2% to 3% year-over-year, that inflation cushion for the industry is no longer enough to keep overall sales growing.

“That big grocery stock up trip that costs you $300 in 2019, now costing you $400,” said Kurt Grichel, head of Bain’s Americas retail practice.

“Even that upper-income consumer, you’re talking a big enough absolute dollar change that people start to feel a little bit of that sticker shock and start to shop around,” said Grichel.