1) Home prices in California are still up on a year-over-year basis, however they won't be for long if this inventory growth continues.
Los Angeles county is up 48% YoY.
Orange county up 66%
San Diego up 67%
Riverside up 53%
Santa Clara up 73%
Alameda up 74%Data as of March…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 11, 2025
3) This big inventory push onto the California housing market is due to a) homebuyer demand remaining very low and b) backlogged listings from the pandemic now finally hitting the market.
Many homeowners in California have a mortgage, and locked in a low mortgage rate.
But…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 11, 2025
6) This score is based on elevated inventory levels, to go along with days on market and price cuts also trending above long-term norms.
It's very reasonable to expect by the end of the year that California will be firmly in negative price growth territory.
(if the current…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 11, 2025
8) Our price scores in Souther California are a bit stronger, but weakening.
Riverside is the weakest of the SoCal bunch, at a 43/100.
San Diego and Los Angeles still technically ranked as stable, but will tilt to negative forecast soon. pic.twitter.com/Wi1al1Dq8p
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 11, 2025
10) One thing I will stress though: there are big differences at the local and ZIP code level.
For instance, across Los Angeles and Orange County, you can see massive differences in our price forecast as well as trailing price growth.
You'll want to dig into this data at the… pic.twitter.com/Jh86yHGSOG
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 11, 2025