Erin isn’t making landfall yet, but it’s dragging a wall of water in its wake. Dangerous rip currents are forecast to last much of this week. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-08-11-tropical-storm-erin-maps-tracker-spaghetti-models-forecasts
Meanwhile, a Gulf system is brewing. It doesn’t have a name yet, but models already show it threatening the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend. Landfall could still occur anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. https://wgno.com/hurricaneseason/tropical-system-likely-to-make-landfall-on-gulf-coast-as-a-hurricane-heres-what-we-know-so-far/
https://twitter.com/In2ThinAir/status/1956750198450880865
Erin is strengthening rapidly and is forecast to become a hurricane over the central tropical Atlantic in just a couple of days. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Historical patterns show higher odds for a landfall near, but not exactly at, the site of previous Gulf hurricanes. https://journalofcrr.com/research/03-04-webber/
If both systems peak simultaneously, the risk could compound. Rip currents from Erin plus a Gulf landfall could trigger coastal flooding, but federal coordination on surge, evacuation, or modeling hasn’t been updated.
Swell heights could reach 70 feet, though that isn’t confirmed. Outer Banks are already experiencing flooding. NOAA has not issued detailed guidance.
Helene’s flooding in Asheville just two weeks ago shows how quickly conditions can escalate. https://www.tcpalm.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2024/09/29/national-hurricane-center-nhc-florida-tracker-tropical-system-kirk/75435733007/
Models keep flipping between Florida, Texas, and Biloxi. Forecast uncertainty remains high. Residents along both coasts should stay alert and track updates closely.
State-Level Hurricane Landfall Odds (2025 Forecast) Source: Generali Travel Insurance Risk Map https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources/hurricane-risk-map.html
Florida:
92% chance of named storm
65% chance of hurricane landfall
Louisiana:
74% named storm
46% hurricane landfall
Texas:
70% named storm
44% hurricane landfall
Alabama:
67% named storm
34% hurricane landfall
Mississippi:
62% named storm
35% hurricane landfall
Georgia:
72% named storm
37% hurricane landfall
North Carolina:
76% named storm
40% hurricane landfall
County-Level & Coastal Zone Odds (2025 CSU Impact Tool) Source: Colorado State University Tropical Cyclone Impact Tool https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html
Florida (statewide):
89% named storm
61% hurricane
32% major hurricane
Florida Panhandle counties:
Bay County: 38% hurricane odds
Brevard County: 19%
Citrus County: 19%
Alabama (Mobile County):
42% hurricane odds
Louisiana coastal parishes:
Range: 46–54% hurricane odds depending on proximity