China’s property predicament: Evergrande’s long shadow, birthrate woes, and the looming economic chill.

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In the latter half of 2021, Evergrande’s financial troubles surfaced, sending shockwaves through the global financial landscape. The scale of Evergrande’s staggering $300 billion debt prompted comparisons to Lehman Brothers, sparking concerns about potential financial contagion. However, Chinese authorities, committed to preserving financial stability, steered away from a Lehman-style failure.

The subsequent events unfolded over a prolonged period, with a Hong Kong court issuing a liquidation order last week, marking over two years since Evergrande’s initial default on offshore debt. Yet, financial markets responded with indifference, perceiving it as old news.

The court’s decision raises questions about its applicability to mainland assets, leaving offshore bondholders doubtful about recovery. This symbolic move mirrors the skepticism of offshore investors toward China as an investment destination, reflecting broader uncertainties in the Chinese property crisis.

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China’s handling of the Evergrande situation exemplifies its approach to the property crisis, prioritizing financial stability over a potentially swifter resolution. The impact is not limited to real estate; China’s M2 Money Supply YoY is in freefall, and demographic challenges loom large, with researchers predicting a significant population decline to 525 million by the end of the century, down from the current 1.4 billion.

China’s Spring Festival, traditionally a time of familial celebration, faces disruptions this year, serving as a metaphor for the current economic and political climate. While China attempts to boost market confidence with interventions, the West remains cautious, considering the state-directed nature of recent rallies.

For Western hedge funds, the Evergrande saga delivered a harsh lesson in dealing with the Communist Party. Despite envisioning substantial payouts, they faced a 99% haircut as a Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, underscoring the complexities of navigating China’s financial landscape.

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Sources:

www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/china-s-property-crisis-is-far-from-over

www.yahoo.com/news/west-hasn-t-grasped-scale-060000234.html

fortune.com/2024/02/08/evergrande-liquidation-99-percent-haircut-hedge-funds/

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