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Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out a couple days ago and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. This is not the fed’s official prediction but is a tool they build and …
by Dismal-Jellyfish What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial shrink in M2 and dip in deposits. Buckle up! Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20230810/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW 781.1%!!! Date …
Russian Defense Minister: NATO assembling 360,000 troops in Eastern Europe. Poland is preparing to occupy Western Ukraine.., Russian Defense Minister: NATO assembled 360,000 troops in Eastern Europe. Poland is preparing to occupy Western Ukraine. Important: If NATO moves from a proxy war setting into a direct war with Russia it will be WW3 with all …
These massive intra-day reversals we've been seeing lately are a result of institutions dumping Tech stocks en masse. A process known as "distribution" i.e. selling to retail late money. Here we see (Chaikin) money flow has collapsed. Note the difference from the last top: pic.twitter.com/IrPaM0TglA — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 10, 2023 This chart sums it …
Just after Victoria Nuland leaves the Capital, ECOWAS declares War against the Revolutionary Government of Niger. Nothing must be allowed to stand in the way of France’s Uranium, otherwise they would have to buy it from Russia. This looks just like a repeat of Clinton and Nuland’s War against Libya. France loses control of the …
From Peter Reagan at Birch Gold Group If you’re over 50 and planning for your future, you have a lot of decisions to make. You’ll be asking questions like this: How much should I be saving? How much can I save? How can I make up for lost time? One idea to consider is called catch-up contributions. It’s one of the four secrets …
So Lahaina, Hawaii has a population of about 13,000 residents. The entire city was burned to ashes in about 6 hours, most of it in 2 hours. There was nowhere to evacuate to… “As of the 2020 census, Lahaina had a resident population of 12,702. The CDP encompasses the coast along Hawaii Route 30 from a tunnel …
First steps to a starvation crisis https://twitter.com/_/status/1689623633507827712 Scientist Admits the ‘Overwhelming Consensus’ on the Climate Change Crisis Is ‘Manufactured’ We are told climate change is a crisis, and that there is an “overwhelming scientific consensus.” “It’s a manufactured consensus,” climate scientist Judith Curry tells me. She says scientists have an incentive to exaggerate risk to …
https://twitter.com/_/status/1689669408820477952 Gonna call BS…. The Ukrainian Army is obviously becoming strained but we are still months away from a collapse, there is still a lot of dying left to do before this is over. The real problem is in DC. Democrats KNOW they cannot win the 2024 elections while still handing a billion US Tax …
The longer the Fed keeps raising interest rates while using their balance sheet to bail out banks and the ultra wealthy, the more deeply buried the middle class becomes trying to borrow their way through inflation. Personal interest payments: pic.twitter.com/UdeKfTTszD — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 10, 2023 US Core CPI is still at a staggering 4.7% …
About 46% of renters in the U.S. are currently struggling to make ends meet, according to Harvard University researchers — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 9, 2023 The cost of both buying and renting a house in America has skyrocketed since 2020. Buying a house now costs $2,700/month on average, up an alarming ~86% in 3 years. …
https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1689392949254103041 Correct.https://t.co/woYFDaVo7l — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 10, 2023 https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1689552388825255936
via SkyNews: ‘NHS data: Number of people waiting to start routine hospital treatment in England at record high In its latest release of data, NHS England said 7.6 million people were waiting to start treatment at the end of June, up slightly from 7.5 million in May. It is the highest number since records began …
Video Credit: lei_dubzz on Instagram — Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) August 9, 2023
FEC records reveal a Democrat dark money super PAC paid the company implicated in a Michigan police report of voter registration fraud $11,254,919 to register voters for Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. BlackPAC, a Democrat political action committee fueled by undisclosed contributions, funneled $11,254,919 to GBI Strategies LLC in 2020 to register voters for Joe …
by Michael Over the past few years, we have seen food prices in the United States and other wealthy countries do things that they have never done before. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. Global food supplies are getting tighter, and meanwhile global demand for food just continues to increase. For decades, many among the …
by bitkogan Alarming U.S Financial Stats of 2023: – Debt at record high – Interest expense on debt to reach record high– Credit card debt at record high – Average interest rate on credit cards at record high– Average monthly payment for new car at record high– Housing prices near… — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 9, 2023 WeWork …
by B3stAuD1t0rofA11tiME The price of a Big Mac is currently around 5 bucks That’s a 22% increase since Covid It looks the same and as usual when you are done eating it there is lettuce all over the place I’m not sure if the price increase was due to cleaning lettuce off the floor Now …
by EuphoricTrilby In the past couple months, the DOJ has consistently indicted Trump or his associates the day after Biden gets bad legal news- whether it’s bank statements detailing Biden taking bribes or Hunter Biden’s plea deal collapsing. The DOJ already has indictments lined up for “in case of Biden scandal”. The next one will …
The bond credit ratings companies are always slow to adjust. There will be many more bank failures in the next 24-36 months. Probably every regional bank with exposure to commercial real estate should be downgraded at this point. 🔊 https://t.co/96qIsxGVGN — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) August 9, 2023 Fitch delayed the U.S. credit rating downgrade …
If the government doesn’t like what you say, they will secretly sue social media companies to hand over your account. Source: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4145606-twitter-fined-350k-for-failing-to-produce-trump-account-info-in-2020-election-probe/ In another Banana Republic move, it turned out Biden’s DOJ forced Twitter to hand over his main political opponent’s social media account. Instead of investigating actual evidence of election fraud and impropriety, the …
Some of the different heart attack risks … Showering Hot Weather & Cold Weather Being too Happy Playing Video Games Being pregnant in your 20s ( idk ) Being “Sarcastic” ( seriously ) Climate Change (of course) Artificial Sweetener Gardening , specifically “touching soil” Too much exercise Eggs Lack of Masking (lol) Falling asleep with …
via Mike Shedlock: In a recent survey of large corporations, 100% of the companies made some enhancement to their political risk management. 54% increased political risk insurance. Political Risk is Everyone’s Risk Please consider The Year Political Risk Became Everyone’s Risk. This is how an insurance broker typically describes political risk: “low frequency, high severity.” Political …
by confoundedinterest17 The US mortgage market is livin’ la vida Biden! And for the US mortgage market, la vida Biden in ugly. Mortgage applications decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 4, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure …
Off the Recent Lows Orange Juice +45%Natural Gas +43%Sugar +41%Gasoline +33%Uranium +28%Oil +24%Lean Hogs +22%Soybeans +16%Iron Ore +15%Coal +14%Wheat +14% *Bloomberg terminal data, lows since Dec. **ALERT: Inflation expectations, US 5yr BEs, at a nine-year high. — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) August 9, 2023 Crazy examples of Shrinkflation Have you noticed any yourself? 🔊 pic.twitter.com/aA3C21RUYf — …
In 2008 the soft landing dream was alive through the end of August, 9 months into the recession.https://t.co/SkNWeYEFFu — Eventually Consistent Capital (@EventuallyCC) August 8, 2023 “Soft landing” news on @business is now higher than in 2000 and 2007. #macro https://t.co/4hl26TWkMQ pic.twitter.com/j329uSp4ch — Kantro (@MichaelKantro) August 8, 2023 Demand for bank loans in the corporate …
The median sales price of a home in the US is now 560% of the median household income, per Gangespost: pic.twitter.com/j1ZIpUp2GI — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 8, 2023 Only 23% of homes in the US are affordable to middle-income buyers, per the National Association of Realtors. A year ago, 50% were. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 8, …
BREAKING 🚨 Extremely dangerous wildfire situation is ongoing as strong winds are pushing flames toward populated areas in and around Lahaina, a largest census-designated place in West Maui, Hawaii. pic.twitter.com/eYZyUrbArQ — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) August 9, 2023 Wildfire has engulfed businesses on Front Street in downtown Lahaina in West Maui, home to 12,000 people. The …
by CyborgAlgoInvestor Disclaimer: Invest at your own risk. Not financial advisor, just a regard giving my 2 cents. Not responsible for any losses you may incur. I hope you are blessed with tendies 🙂 Disney’s valuation is ridiculous, and unless Apple buys it(there’s speculation they may with the most recent partnership), they’re cooked. I know you’re …
https://www.megamillions.com/ https://www.megamillions.com/News/2023/Estimated-Mega-Millions%C2%AE-Jackpot-Now-at-$1-58-Bill.aspx $1.58 Billion annuity prize paid out in 30 yearly installments. That is = $783.3 million lump sum cash prize. There is someone in Florida who is very happy tonight. . . Edited to add this Mega Millions Press Release about the win: https://www.megamillions.com/News/2023/Smashing-Jackpot-Run-Ends-With-Big-Florida-Win.aspx “Smashing Jackpot Run Ends With Big Florida Win RELEASE DATE: …