Canada’s housing market isn’t just expensive. It’s aging. Suburbs once built for families now sit quiet. Detached homes in areas like Oakville, Richmond Hill, and West Vancouver average $1.7 million. The buyers aren’t young couples. They’re retirees who bought in the 1980s and 1990s, paid off their mortgages, and stayed. The result is a freeze. The homes are occupied, but the neighborhoods are hollow. School enrollments are falling. Daycares are closing. Playgrounds sit untouched. The sound of children is gone.
Over 60% of detached homes in major metros were built before 1990. Zoning laws restrict redevelopment. Property tax incentives discourage downsizing. Seniors hold the land. Families climb the towers. In Toronto, the average condo price is $782,000. Most new units are under 700 square feet. That’s where young parents raise kids. In vertical boxes. With no yard. No garage. No swing set.
The mismatch is visible. In Mississauga, 41% of detached homes are owned by people over 65. In Vancouver, it’s 38%. In Markham, it’s 36%. These aren’t investment properties. They’re primary residences. But the owners aren’t moving. They’re aging in place. And the next generation can’t afford to buy in. Mortgage rates hover around 5.6%. Stress tests block entry. The family home has become a locked asset class.
The federal government’s housing plan includes 3.9 million new units by 2031. But most of that is high-density. The low-rise stock isn’t growing. And the existing supply isn’t turning over. The suburbs are full. But they’re not alive. The market is frozen. The tragedy is generational. The homes are still there. The families aren’t.
Sources
https://www.realtor.ca/canada/real-estate
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/canada-housing-market-forecast-for-2025-and-2026/
https://globalnews.ca/news/11232647/real-estate-markets-signs-of-life-report/