1) Austin's housing market is a cautionary tale about what can happen in "boomtowns".
Everyone moves in. The prices surge. Builders start pulling too many permits.
And then, sooner than you know, the market flips. And inventory gets dumped onto the market as demand and prices…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 24, 2024
2) You can see that home values in Austin are already down about -17% from their peak in mid-2022.
This is by far the worst-hit metro area.
How far could they drop into the future? pic.twitter.com/17Cgh3iqcz
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 24, 2024
4) I'm looking for another 10% correction in Austin before the market starts finding an equilibrium and buyers start coming back in.
Of course – that forecast could change depending on if there is a broader economic reccession.
So far, Austin's decline has been in the midst of… pic.twitter.com/5huvX0VdLd
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 24, 2024