In the ever-shifting landscape of the stock market, recent data is raising eyebrows and sending warning signals about the health of the market. Key players like $NVDA, $META, $MSFT, and $AMZN have been the driving force, accounting for more than 90% of the market cap gains in the Nasdaq 100 this year. This concentration of gains in a handful of stocks raises concerns about the broader market’s reliance on a select few.
Adding to the unease is the revelation that the S&P 500 market breadth is at its weakest since 2009. While the big names are soaring, the overall health of the market, as indicated by the breadth, is showing signs of strain. The equal-weight $RSP S&P 500, which provides a different perspective by giving each stock an equal weight, is notably underperforming compared to the market cap-weighted index. This divergence suggests that the market’s strength might not be as robust as it appears at first glance.
Digging deeper into hedge fund activities adds another layer of concern. Hedge funds, once bullish on Tech, are now executing a rapid sell-off. Notably, $NVDA, a tech heavyweight, is witnessing the highest rate of selling in the past 7 months, breaking a 6-week streak of inflows. What’s striking is that the selloff is heavily skewed towards short sells, outpacing long sales by a ratio of 3.5 to 1. This indicates a growing skepticism and willingness to bet against these tech giants.
Despite the sell-off frenzy, the 20-day Net flow remains positive on Tech. While this might seem like a silver lining, it raises questions about the sustainability of the positive flow in the face of the broader sell-off trend. Is it a temporary respite, or is it masking deeper issues in the market dynamics?
As we navigate these market waters, the interplay of dominant tech stocks, weakening market breadth, and hedge fund rotations paints a picture of potential turbulence ahead. It’s a reminder that while certain stocks might be flying high, the broader market might be facing headwinds. Investors and market observers should proceed with caution, as the signs are pointing towards a potentially rocky path in the coming days.
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$NVDA, $META, $MSFT and $AMZN accounted for more than 90% of the market cap gains in the Nasdaq 100 this year, per Tavi Costa. pic.twitter.com/0eFKiXS4lC
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 27, 2024
S&P 500 $SPY Market breadth is at its weakest since 2009.
The equal-weight $RSP S&P 500 is notably underperforming the market cap-weighted index. https://t.co/tK6Ei4gRxN pic.twitter.com/MJDcjTNVCP
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) February 27, 2024
JPMorgan says the S&P 500 rally is at risk from a narrative shift.
With the S&P 500 recently hitting another all-time high, the investor sentiment is predominantly bullish, resulting in a consensus view on the 'goldilocks outcome' among market participants," JPMorgan cautioned…
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) February 27, 2024