Grok:
In a November 1 podcast with Julia La Roche, Gary Shilling estimated a 60% chance the U.S. is already in recession. His key arguments include weakening labor markets—rising unemployment claims, slowing hiring, and part-time work for economic reasons—alongside falling leading economic indicators and a persistent inverted yield curve. He also highlights softening consumer spending and industrial activity, warning these signal contraction despite resilient GDP figures propped by fiscal stimulus.