by alemorg
With the current jobs report coming out with much lower amount of jobs than expected while declining for the past couple of months, on top of Trump’s BLS pick who wanted to cherry pick data or at least manipulate how it looks, on top of tariff impacts being felt just now since Trump took so long in actually implementing them causing inflation to rise in the coming months, on top of potentially having a federal reserve that doesn’t have its independence, when does the house of cards fall?
The BLS has already laid off so many employees that Jerome Powell questions the validity of the data. I really think alot of the jobs being created aren’t even good jobs, previously done by undocumented immigrants or healthcare jobs that aren’t high paying like nursing home assistant. The current pick is talking about suspending the intervals of reports or just changing how to demonstrate the data to make it look good. Potentially having a federal reserve that isn’t independent and who lowers interest rates while having more inflation. On top of an economy that is slowing primarily due to tariffs and general fear of doing business in the country. If we enter a reality where we can’t trust the data where do we turn to know if the economy is heading towards a sinking ship? Can we only rely on private data coming from earnings reports? If we have stagflation on top of this tariff nonsense and geopolitical instability how could it possibly get better from here? The stock market doing well doesn’t correlate with the economy doing well but eventually they have to meet reality at some point right, otherwise crashes like 2008 wouldn’t happen. Can these tariffs really only cause a one time hit to inflation and then all is fine, if this is true we might not see that until q3 earnings because all tariffs should be fully realized now with the de minimis exemption gone.