This is how the game usually works.
Nobody wanted to chase Chipotle near the highs.
Now the stock is down roughly 46%, and suddenly it’s a “rare valuation opportunity.”
JPMorgan just upgraded the stock to overweight.
The timing is interesting.
Chipotle spent four straight quarters losing customer traffic.
It posted its first annual same store sales decline since 2016.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 kept pushing higher.
Now there are signs things might be stabilizing.
First quarter revenue climbed to about $3.09 billion.
Transaction counts finally turned positive again.
Digital sales are close to 39% of the business.
Management is still refusing to lean on heavy discounts to bring people back.
They’re protecting the brand instead.
That also means the turnaround probably won’t happen overnight.
The part I keep coming back to is this.
If consumers were really in great shape, why did one of the strongest restaurant brands struggle for more than a year?
The company is still planning to open 350 to 370 new restaurants this year.
So they’re clearly thinking long term.
Management, though, is only guiding for flat same store sales.
That’s not exactly pounding the table.
This feels less like a story about burritos.
It’s another window into the consumer.
Wall Street is betting the worst is over.
Now it has to prove people are actually ready to start spending again.