by Naive-Historian-2110
I find it funny that there was all this talk about a soft landing, and then as soon as everyone spent all their money on Black Friday, they switch to dropping the hard recession all over the news. Coincidence??? Probably not!
CNN: Jamie Dimon says to be prepared for recession
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning to Wall Street on Wednesday: Inflation could rise further and recession is not off the table.
“A lot of things out there are dangerous and inflationary. Be prepared,” he said at the 2023 New York Times DealBook Summit in New York. “Interest rates may go up and that might lead to recession.”
Governments across the globe need more money, he said, to fund the green economy, remilitarize and to address energy crises — and that will all be inflationary.
“I’m cautious about the economy,” he said. The labor market in the United States has been resilient, but “inflation is hurting people.”
JPMorgan sees 8% downside risk for S&P 500 next year By Investing.com
Hedge Funds are the least long financial stocks since the onset of covid pic.twitter.com/2uKrfHzmoI
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 30, 2023
The Treasury Market Continues to Scream a Recession Ahead
The percentage of yield curve inversions in the Treasury market, an indicator often used to predict economic recessions, has recently risen to nearly 90%, signaling a potential recession ahead. This increase comes after a brief period of decline. It’s important to remember that just because a recession hasn’t yet occurred doesn’t mean the probability of it happening has diminished. The Treasury market’s current state suggests that the risk of a recession remains high.
After a brief decline, the % of yield curve inversions has returned to extreme levels, now approaching 90% again.
The Treasury market continues to scream a recession ahead.
Here is a reminder:
The fact that a recession hasn’t happened doesn't necessarily mean the likelihood… pic.twitter.com/VkgPvwruBU
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) November 28, 2023
2-Year Treasury Yield has dropped below its 200D moving average for the first time since May 👀 pic.twitter.com/SPvCBE8Brp
— Barchart (@Barchart) November 30, 2023
🇪🇺 Traders Bet on Earlier and Deeper #ECB Cuts as Inflation Slows – Bloombergt.co/FaOIjNYd0n pic.twitter.com/rOI2ZqSQdA
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) November 30, 2023
Surge in Continuing Jobless Claims Hits Highest Level in Two Years
Last week’s significant drop in non-seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims reversed the previous surge, with a minor increase in seasonally adjusted claims. Continuing claims, however, have risen above 1.9 million for the first time since November 2021. This rise in claims, attributed to seasonal distortions, is expected to further increase, according to Goldman Sachs. They predict an additional rise of around 125,000 claims by March, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market.