Everyone's talking about how the U.S just hit $1 trillion in total credit card debt
But what's more concerning: That number has increased by +$250 billion in just 2 years
This doesn't end well pic.twitter.com/LK7oUrne2D
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) May 31, 2023
U.S. Consumer Debt Piles up to $17 Trillion
More, more, more. According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt climbed to $17.05 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of $2.9 trillion since Q4 2019, shortly before the pandemic hit.
Central Banks Will Pivot Quickly. Stagflation Coming: Lacalle
He sees a mild economic slowdown – more-so than a severe recession – due to his belief that central banks will pivot quickly if economic activity slows sharply. For that reason, he sees inflation remaining above 2% for a longer time as growth slows but doesn’t fully dip into recession, i.e. stagflation.
Large Specs Are Record Short Stocks
Leading into the weekend, where the debt ceiling had not been settled, markets were exhibiting very interesting positioning. To start, US Treasuries across the maturity spectrum were hugely out of favor. Net speculator positioning in options and futures were as short as they have every been. The charts below show the 2-year, 5-year and 10-year…
The Great Student Loan Nonpayment Boondoggle Is Over And Household Spending Is About To Collapse
In the small print detailing the end of the debt ceiling melodrama which, as we explained, is a farce as it boosts inflation-adjusted spending contrary to Republican promises, there was some actual news: the great student loan boondoggle is about to come to a screeching halt, after a three year “emergency pause” which redirected tens of billions in dollars away from mandatory student loan repayment to other forms of discretionary spending.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) experienced a decline of 2.3% in Q1, compared to a 3.3% decline in the previous quarter (Q4 2022)
Corporate profits from current production declined by $151.1 billion, which is a larger decrease compared to the previous quarter’s decrease of $60.5 billion in Q4 2022. Domestic nonfinancial corporations saw their profits decrease by $109.3 billion, while rest-of-the-world profits (net) decreased by $16.4 billion, contrasting with a previous increase of $21.4 billion.