TRUMP SAYS DEAL WITH THE UK IS 'FULL AND COMPREHENSIVE' pic.twitter.com/hqwo7ehIWF
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) May 8, 2025
The stock market rally since April’s historic volatility may be getting ahead of itself.
The blistering rally since April lows suggests investors think good news on the trade war is imminent.
But tariffs will still be much higher than they were in the past, market experts warn.
More than a month has passed since President Donald Trump’s tariffs sparked chaos in financial markets, and there’s been no news of a trade deal. But markets are acting like the trade war may already be won, and investors may be getting overly optimistic, market pros say.
The S&P 500 is up 13% since closing at a low of 4,982 on April 8. While relatively upbeat earnings and robust macroeconomic data have helped stocks, commentators also say that the market is increasingly pricing in a swift end to trade tensions — and a win for Donald Trump and the US.
But investors need to tread carefully when it comes to baking in assumptions about trade policy, market experts told Business Insider.
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-tariffs-us-china-trade-war-trump-2025-5
Investors are excited about Trump's trade deal with the U.K., our first victory in the trade war. The effective tariff rate on U.S. goods entering the U.K. is 0.5%. So, from the American perspective, what we stand to win from the deal is relief from Trump's tariffs on UK imports.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 8, 2025
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 8, 2025