Michigan has swung from blue to red and back to blue again at the state level. Nate Silver now has MI back in the blue national column. Looking ahead….
A fascinating vas well as accurate video shows how, and more importantly why, Michigan has swung back and forth between red and blue in state and national elections.
Don’t mock the source this time. The video is well worth the 18 minutes time spent from beginning to end.
Important Ideas
- Unions
- Blue collar voters
- Suburban women
- Abortion
- Black voter enthusiasm
- Gerrymandering
Play the Video first. Read my thoughts second. You may or may not agree, and I prefer not to influence you.
My Take
Trump’s pick of J.D. Vance is a loser on the last four points. It’s questionable Vance helps on points one and two.
Vice presidential candidates generally don’t matter much but if the margin is tiny, one might be able to point to many things that influenced the election.
Independents may decide the election again, and J.D. Vance is a definite negative. The abortion issue is still a hot point in Michigan, and Vance was among the worst possible picks.
Trump’s Antics
Trump’s name calling suits the MAGA crowd but it is guaranteed to cost votes among suburban women and independents.
Trump just cannot control himself and it could easy cost him the election.
Trump Is Now Behind in Michigan
Nate Silver now has Harris leading in Michigan by 53.6 percent to 46.4 percent for Trump.
I am not particularly surprised by this.
Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
On July 21, I commented Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
At the time I made that comment, Nate Silver had Trump’s odds of winning at 72.8 percent to 26.9 percent for Biden with a 0.4 percent chance of no majority (recount of a rogue elector voting for Kennedy).
Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
On July 22, I commented In the Wake Biden’s Campaign Exit, Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
It took Trump just a few minutes after Biden dropped out of the presidential race to throw away votes.
Question of the Day
The following question is how many independents will see things:
“Would I rather have a jackass president who will get some things right, or would I rather take a chance on Harris?“
Let’s be honest about how Trump’s belittling sounds. If you don’t like the word “jackass” then feel free to substitute a word or phrase that suits you.
I do not know the answer to my question, and if you have an ounce of common sense, you will admit you don’t either.
Regardless, such statements will cost Trump votes.
Peak Trump?
Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
My statement implies nothing other than widespread belief that Harris-Anyone has a better shot than Biden-Harris.
Peak Trump
My assessment on July 22 was accurate.
Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
Was Nate Silver Wrong?
Please don’t tell me Nate Silver was wrong in 2016 because Trump won.
Yes, Silver was wrong, not because Trump won but because he never thought Trump had any chance of winning the nomination (Silver has admitted that as his biggest mistake), and because he had the final odds wrong (I am unsure if he has admitted that point or not).
Were it not for a last minute Comey bombshell, it is highly likely Trump would have lost.
But even if Silver got that right, he would have been wrong because he was too far off on reasonable margins of error.
You Don’t Know and No One Else Does Either
People tell me they “knew” Trump would win in 2016. The same people “knew” Trump would win in 2020.
Trump lost. Period. And stop the steal had nothing to do with it.
Trump made a poor decision to not get the vote out until election day, he had a major case of foot-in-mouth disease offending every sensible person, and abortion mattered.
Like Hillary, Trump blames everyone but himself. Trump lost the election because of Trump. If you disagree you have TDS.
And Now?
Stop the steal remains an idiotic message that only appeals to voters 100% guaranteed to vote for Trump anyway.
Ridiculous name calling costs Trump votes of independents and women.
Abortion is still in play although Trump is wisely trying to downplay his role. J.D. Vance will make that very difficult and it could cost Trump the state of Michigan.
I suspect the Polls for Harris are now overrated just as “peak Trump” polls. But we don’t know that.
Can Harris win back the youth vote and percentage margins that Biden lost?
Undoubtedly Harris has done some of that. So far it does not appear to be enough, but no one really knows that.
I still think this boils down to margins of young voters and Blacks.
J.D. Vance is likely a negative vs Governor Glenn Youngkin or Senator Marco Rubio. But in an act of self-adulation, Trump picked the candidate most like himself rather than purposely go after swing voters.
Have I upset everyone yet?
Looking Ahead
The big bonus in Trump’s favor that very few see coming is a fast weakening economy if not outright recession.
On July 26, I commented Expect the BLS to Revise Job Growth Down by 730,000 in 2023, More This Year
At the heart of these revisions is a horribly flawed birth-death model used by the BLS. My calculation closely matches an estimate by Bloomberg’s chief Economist.
In addition to the birth-death model, or perhaps explaining the birth-death model errors, small business employment is declining fast.
“All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites
On July 25, I commented “All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites
Two of us are still adamant that a recession has started. The other is Danielle DiMartino Booth, in her best video yet. Please take a look.
Small Business Employment Growth Is Now Negative
Earlier today I commented Small Business Employment Growth Is Now Negative (and What It Means)
ADP data shows year-over-year payroll growth is negative 88,000 for small corporations sized 20-49. Trends are negative in all but very large corporations.
Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
To understand the dynamics of the youth vote, please see Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
Roughly 36 percent of households rent. They watch home prices soar out of sight while wages do not keep up with rent.
Q: Who are the renters?
A: Young adults and blacks
My Base Political Case
My base political case is that the economy trumps Trump’s FIMD (Foot-in-Mouth Disease).
Of course, Kamala Harris has her own FIMD. So it’s really dueling FIMD.
With that, I likely have upset everyone but those who can’t stand either of them.
Regardless, “It’s Still the Economy, Stupid!”
Trump needs, and I think he will get, an economy weakening enough to win.