This is only his 100th time saying this https://t.co/Sm3Zj5xhDe pic.twitter.com/zfGJrLkZgj
— Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) May 21, 2026
The "BREAKING 50%" framing skips two things.
It's down from 58% on Kalshi May 7. The term structure tells the real story: 29% by September, 30% by August, 50% by 2027.
That implies no resolution in any window where talks are actually live.
It also maps directly to why rate cut…
— The Reserve Letter (@ReserveLetter) May 21, 2026
🚨 NOW: President Trump's team has REJECTED Iranian terms for Strait of Hormuz access and controls
GOOD! America first terms ONLY
"Iran has released a map showing what it calls a controlled maritime zone. Tehran says it's committed to reopening the strait to friendly countries… pic.twitter.com/GlPt1HaMdr
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 21, 2026